Since the beginning of this year, the raw material polyester filament market has hardly experienced major fluctuations, prices have continued to run at low levels, and sluggish peak seasons have become the market norm. In recent months, the price focus of various polyester filament products has fallen to the lowest level during the year, and has fallen back to the low level in July 2016.
Not only is the price running weak, especially since the Golden Nine and Silver Ten years, the mainstream production and sales of the polyester market are even worse. Countless, and extremely short-lived, mostly “one-day trip” trends.
Affected by this, the pressure on polyester manufacturers has doubled. The biggest influencing factor is naturally the lack of demand in the downstream market! So, what is the situation of the downstream market now? What is your attitude towards raw material procurement?
1. Conventional products are facing an embarrassing situation, and recycled and elastic fabrics have a higher “gold content”
In fact, since this year, the downstream weaving market is also facing ” The peak season is not busy and the off-season is very weak. Whether it is oversupply caused by the impact of external production capacity, or the global economic slowdown, weakening end market demand, etc., for the fabric market, the biggest impact is undoubtedly on conventional products, such as pongee, nylon, polyester taffeta, etc., the market Sluggish sales have become the norm, and eventually we face the embarrassing situation of overcapacity and generally low profit margins.
“Compared to previous years, the textile market this year is really far behind. Conventional products such as polyester taffeta and pongee, which were popular in previous years, have significantly weakened in market shipments this year.” A company with 300 Mr. Peng, the textile boss of Taiwan Loom, said, “We are now mainly inclined to produce recycled fabrics. The market demand is still relatively stable, and orders have also grown steadily. This year, the “gold content” in the fabric market is relatively high, and it is recycled fabrics. And elastic fabrics.”
In this regard, Manager Xu, who originally mainly dealt in conventional products such as pongee and nylon spinning I also feel the same. “Due to the limited sales of conventional pongee, nylon and taslan products, we have also re-adjusted the production of loom products this year. The current production focus is mainly on regenerated pongee and regenerated nylon. , recycled Taslan, etc. For gray fabrics, we have local customers in Shengze and Keqiao and other places; for finished product orders, we mainly sell them to the European and American markets.”
In the case of sluggish sales of conventional fabric products Next, from the perspective of raw materials, the demand for conventional raw materials in the downstream market has naturally weakened. As the sales of recycled fabrics, elastic fabrics, etc. are improving, although polyester recycled fiber on the market costs more than 20,000 tons per ton, nylon recycled fiber costs 78,000 to 80,000 tons, and raw materials such as T400 are relatively more expensive, there is still rigidity. need.
Although ordinary polyester fiber still occupies most of the market demand; other fiber markets occupy a small market share and will not be completely replaced, which may still have a relative impact on conventional raw materials to a certain extent.
2. Although the weaving start-up rate is relatively stable, the pressure on gray fabric inventory still exists
According to data tracking from China Silk City Network, the current overall operating rate of the weaving market in Shengze has basically remained stable, with the average operating rate concentrated around 80-90%. However, as the market situation is unlikely to improve on a large scale, the destocking process of weaving manufacturers is still relatively slow. At present, the inventory of gray fabrics in Shengze is still more than 37 days old.
“Although follow-up orders were not received in time, we still have to ensure that the factory starts operations. The current operating rate remains at Around 80-90%; if there is insufficient follow-up on follow-up orders, it means that there is a continuous backlog of inventory.” A manufacturer mainly engaged in down jackets and casual wear fabrics in Shengze market said helplessly, “The key is the poor performance of terminal demand. This year’s down jacket market Sales are not ideal, and traders in third- and fourth-tier cities have a large amount of down jacket fabrics in stock, resulting in no one paying attention to the fabrics we produce now.”
Manager Sang, who has run a factory in Shengze for many years, also said that this year’s textile market gap is relatively large year-on-year. The overall order performance is mostly tepid and has not improved significantly. This year’s order volume in the factory has increased. Despite the reduction, orders are still mostly dominated by “small batches and multiple batches”. Although we still maintain a stable start-up, in addition to part of the production factors of order demand, part of it is to retain workers and reduce cost pressures such as rent; but in the future, the production enthusiasm of manufacturers in the market may gradually decrease.
3. Some people take advantage of the low price to buy, but most choose to wait and see cautiously
From the perspective of raw material prices, the current price of conventional raw materials is not only the lowest since this year This year’s low is also the lowest price in the past three years. Are you taking advantage of the opportunity to buy at the bottom? Or should we continue to wait and see and buy with caution?
“Our factory now has raw materials in stock for about half a month. Recently, the prices of conventional raw materials are generally low, and there are certain transaction discounts. We have also made certain purchases one after another.” In Shengze Manager Yao, who has been operating a factory in the market for many years, said, “The main reason is that the machines in the factory are now fully operational, and there is a rigid demand for raw materials. Taking advantage of the low price, we should prepare more just in case. If the subsequent raw material prices still fluctuate at a low level, If so, we are expected to purchase more raw materials and increase the inventory of raw materials.”
Boss Lu has a completely different attitude towards the procurement of raw materials. Boss Lu’s company is an industry and trade company, mainly focusing on the production of special-width products. Mainly home textile fabrics are mostly sold to Europe, the United States and other regions. This year, we are also developing markets such as Turkey and South Africa. He said that with the looms in full operation, the current orders on hand can basically last until around the Spring Festival; but the market is tepid and he feels very unsure, so the stocking of raw materials can only be maintained for about 10 days, even if the raw materials are now available The price is low, and the inventory has been slightly increased for a few days. There is no big plan to purchase raw materials.
In the past, the stocking of raw materials was mainly based on the fluctuations in raw material prices. If PTA fell to a certain extent and it was expected to rebound, I would take advantage of this market to prepare more raw materials. However, this year I have been holding a cautious attitude towards raw material procurement. With a cautious attitude, he did not dare to stock up in batches. The raw material inventory in the factory was kept within half a month, and he did not dare to sell it easily. In fact, most textile factory operators on the market have the same idea as Boss Lu. They mostly purchase raw materials on demand and are cautious to wait and see. On the one hand, they are afraid of the risk of further decline in raw materials, and on the other hand, the market demand is still weak. In this case, we are afraid of backlog of funds and inventory.
From the current market point of view, the overall demand in the domestic textile market is still weak, and it is difficult to make a substantial improvement; the same is true for the foreign trade market, and the overall performance is not prosperous. Although Sino-US trade has eased, it has not Good results appeared immediately, but the boost to market orders was not great. According to the usual practice in previous years, there may be a wave of shipments before the year, mostly fabric orders for next spring and summer; however, it will be difficult to get more orders, and the textile market next year is still full of unknowns. </p
