In the polyester industry chain, some people are happy and some are sad…

At the beginning of this week, polyester production and sales have reached an average of just over 300%, and some manufacturers have even reached a high of 800%. Compared with the lackluster market last week, this time polyester The company can be said to be “hot”!

Polyester: production and sales are just a “flash in the pan”

Raw material manufacturers have not had time to enjoy themselves. By this Wednesday, polyester production and sales suddenly fell back to around 40%, and some manufacturers even only had 10%! Polyester production and sales fluctuate greatly, mainly affected by the relationship between supply and demand. As the end of the month approaches, most weaving manufacturers have low inventory of raw materials and need to stock up on invoices at the end of the month. As well as the current low price of polyester filament, this has stimulated the purchasing enthusiasm of weaving manufacturers to a certain extent, which has led to an overnight explosion in polyester production and sales. However, the price of polyester filament has been falling, and the mentality of buying up rather than buying down affects the demand of downstream weaving manufacturers. In addition, the purchase of raw materials requires cash, and manufacturers with slow return of funds still dare not stock up on more raw materials. Therefore, once the purchase day has passed, , the production and sales of polyester yarns dropped sharply again.

What affects the production and sales of polyester yarns is mainly terminal demand. According to statistics, the inventory of weaving manufacturers in Shengze area is still about 40 days, which is nearly doubled compared with the same period last year. In addition, the inventory of downstream garment enterprises is large, and the demand for polyester yarn will not be very high in the short term. powerful!

In terms of profit, it can be seen from the table that in the past two months, the sales of polyester filament The profit can be described as a “diving” decline, and the profit is green! Terminal demand cannot support the rise in polyester prices, and profits are extremely low. It seems that the market for polyester filaments will also be in a “cool” state in a short period of time.

However, this year the market has been It is relatively tame, and raw material manufacturers seem to be used to it, and once the production and sales are good, they may not care too much. If you can’t do it downstream, you can always do it upstream, right? However, as the upstream of polyester yarn, PTA and PX are not having an easy time.

PTA: The Future The release of excess production capacity may usher in a fierce price war

PTA is the direct upstream of polyester yarn, and the two influence each other. In recent times, PTA spot prices have been fluctuating. In early May, PTA profits climbed to this year’s high of 1,381 yuan/ton. However, since mid-May, PTA spot prices have dropped significantly, and profits have now fallen to 500 yuan/ton. tons or less.

The price of PTA fluctuates so much. On the one hand, it is affected by the impact of downstream demand and the high processing fee of PTA. The current processing fee of PX in Asia has expanded to 1800-1950 yuan/ton. On the other hand, in April, all major manufacturers announced equipment maintenance. More than a month later, the equipment maintenance was basically completed and restarted. With the new equipment put into operation, PTA production capacity was released.

PTA, as the main raw material for the production of polyester filament, has always been valued by polyester manufacturers. . It is reported that polyester leaders such as Hengli and Xinfengming currently have PTA projects under construction. In the next two years, PTA may face a new round of expansion, and the pressure of oversupply will increase. When there is a mismatch between supply and demand, PTA is expected to usher in a new round of price wars. New equipment will be put into production and old equipment will be eliminated. By then, the market share of the six polyester giants will increase. At the same time, PTA will also have the right to speak. In their hands.

(The picture shows PTA’s new production capacity statistics)

Although the price of PTA has dropped, there is still room for profit. The price fluctuation is largely due to the reshuffle of PTA manufacturers. In addition, chemical fiber giants such as Xinfengming and Hengli are “selling” PTA to themselves. , profits naturally cannot be reduced. As the upstream of PTA, PX is even more “loaded and difficult to operate.”

PX: The highest price, The profit is negative

PX can be said to be the worst “confused” recently. The current profit is already negative, about -95 US dollars/ tons, which has dropped to the lowest level in the past six months! However, since the spot price of PX has fallen off a cliff since the end of April, it is now basically��The price is stable at around 7,500 yuan/ton, but the profit is negative, indicating that the current PX production capacity on the market has completely exceeded demand.

In 2018, China’s PX import dependence was as high as 60.86%, and domestic supply was insufficient. However, this year Hengli Petrochemical’s PX production line has been put into operation. The PX production capacity is expected to be 4.5 million tons/year. In April, the output increased by nearly 100,000 tons. The PX supply and demand pattern gradually changed quantitatively. As PX production capacity increases on the market, the price of PX will naturally decrease. In April, equipment maintenance of many PTA manufacturers was relatively concentrated. The operating rate of PTA manufacturers dropped. The demand for PX showed a significant decline. In April, the inventory of PX suddenly reached a high of 235,600 tons. Prices have fallen, inventories have accumulated, terminal demand has lacked momentum, and profits have shrunk to negative levels. Although it is surprising, it is also the current trend.

With high inventory and negative profits, it is currently difficult for PX to provide cost support for PTA, and the high processing fees of PTA have also made downstream manufacturers “daunted” by it. As an indirect feedback point for terminal demand, polyester filament has a rigid demand. However, due to excessive production capacity, profits have been greatly compressed, and life has not been easy!

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