The term “low inventory” has been buzzing around our ears in recent times. Since July, although crude oil has been falling continuously, the price increase in the polyester market has not stopped. From time to time, there will be dramas such as tight supply. Although we are currently in the traditional off-season, the polyester market has been rising in waves. It’s still happening. PTA violently rose above 6,000 points, setting a new high in 45 months. Ethylene glycol rebounded strongly, performing a “god assist”. Under the strong push of raw materials, polyester filament rose again…
PTA equipment is under constant maintenance and destocking is still in progress
The performance of PTA supply and demand in the first half of this year is still remarkable. Downstream polyester continues to make efforts after the Spring Festival, and PTA will be destocked in the second quarter. Pretty smooth. Entering July, although the centralized maintenance equipment has been restarted one after another, there are still large equipment in the PTA market that are arranging maintenance one after another. Therefore, the overall supply and demand side is still relatively tight. It is reported that the average load of PTA in June was around 81%, while the start-up of polyester was around 95%. In June, PTA destocking reached 350,000 tons. Entering July, although Hanbang’s 2.2 million tons and Liwan’s 700,000 tons maintenance equipment has been successfully restarted, this has alleviated the shortage of PTA spot supply to a certain extent. However, PTA’s average load in July is expected to be around 83%, while polyester production is at 93%. PTA’s July social inventory level is still expected to decrease by nearly 200,000 tons.
Look, PTA will still maintain a destocking status in the short term, and the positive supply and demand side will support the PTA market outlook.
Ethylene glycol import supply has tightened, and port inventories have fallen
Since the Spring Festival, the huge port inventory of ethylene glycol has become the biggest stumbling block to the progress of ethylene glycol. However, after entering June, the RMB exchange rate continued to depreciate, which made ethylene glycol The cost of imported alcohol sources has soared. Crude oil has fallen but the cost of US dollars has risen. Amid multiple conflicts, ethylene glycol traders have reduced import orders. It is reported that the average weekly import volume of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China in the past four weeks has been around 150,000 tons, while the import volume in May was nearly 300,000 tons. Import volume has decreased, but demand remains strong. The inventory in the ethylene glycol port area has dropped significantly. The current inventory in the port area has dropped to less than 700,000 tons, and ethylene glycol is relieved. Typhoon “Ambi” has recently affected East China, which has delayed the arrival of cargo into the port, and the pressure on ethylene glycol spot prices has eased.
Weaving demand is strong, polyester filament stocks remain low
Since June, the off-season effect of the fabric market has gradually emerged, but the polyester filament market is still “not weak in the off-season.” Especially in July, the polyester filament market took off again. The price of polyester filament rose slightly in two days and then rose sharply in three days. The price continued to rise. The purchasing enthusiasm of the downstream weaving market continued to be released. Some hot-selling specifications of polyester filament manufacturers were even in short supply. state. Polyester filament has been selling well from raw material FDY to POY and DTY now, and polyester filament manufacturers’ inventories remain low. It is reported that the current overall polyester market inventory is around 3-12 days; POY inventory is concentrated at 2-6 days, FDY inventory is around 3-6 days, and DTY inventory is around 10-18 days.
Although it is currently in the last traditional off-season for textiles, the off-season market this year has shown the same performance as in previous years. Different look. Weaving inventory accumulation is limited in the off-season, polyester filament inventory continues to be low, and polyester raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol are still in destocking status. Smooth fundamentals are like an “EMU” providing a steady stream of support for the rising polyester market. Momentum, the polyester market is booming across the board, and polyester filament prices are rising.
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