Since March, the price of polyester bottle flakes has been fluctuating and has never been able to go up. After the Qingming Festival holiday, a crazy upward trend unexpectedly opened. The price of polyester bottle flakes is now reported at 9,800 yuan/ton, the highest level this year. It is obvious from the chart below that such a straight-line rise without any ripples is not only embarrassing, but also confusing to market participants.
The profitability of polyester bottle chips has been in a stable profitability state, much better than that of slices , since the price surge, cash flow has reached 1265.9 yuan/ton as of the 18th! This should be the highest cash flow data, a historic moment. So why is the market for polyester bottle flakes so crazy? Can this trend continue? The author will briefly analyze a few reasons below.
Upstream raw material cost support is strong
The situation in the Middle East is tense, the trend of crude oil is relatively strong, the trend of PTA futures is also relatively strong, and the price of ethylene glycol also rises slightly. Under cost pressure, the price of polyester products has followed up this week. Due to the recent low inventory of finished products at the weaving end, and the lack of follow-up orders for production, the downstream replenishment capacity has performed well, and we can still look forward to support from the demand side in the future. Therefore, the increase in the price of upstream raw materials will have a certain supporting effect on the increase in the price of bottle flakes.
The supply of bottle flakes is tight and oversold until the end of May
In fact, the market for polyester bottle flakes has jumped sharply this time It is reasonable for the price to rise. The weather is gradually getting warmer and the traditional peak season for beverage bottles is approaching, and the demand from downstream beverage factories is gradually increasing. According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, domestic soft drink production from January to February was 24.071 million tons, a decrease of 12.3% compared with the same period in 2017. The sales model of bottle flakes is different from other polyester products in that it is sold in advance and oversold. Last week, several domestic downstream beverage factories issued large order inquiries and tenders. In addition, most bottle flake factories have almost no stock in stock, making shipments extremely tight. At present, domestic polyester bottle flakes are severely out of stock. Most manufacturers have basically oversold to near the low in May, and some factories have oversold to June-July. Due to serious shortages in the market, most bottle tablet manufacturers have closed their orders and are not quoting prices. The market price for May goods is as high as 9,000-9,100 yuan/ton (ex-factory), and the price for June-July goods is 8,950-9,000 yuan/ton (ex-factory). nearby.
The export volume of bottle flakes increased in the first quarter, increasing supply pressure
The export of bottle flakes is a major direction of sales. In the past two years, the number of exports of bottle flakes from my country has grown steadily. As can be seen from the figure, my country’s polyester bottle flakes export market performed fairly well in 2017, with a sharp increase in year-on-year growth. Most domestic polyester bottle flakes export volumes exceeded their quotas. Export volume in the first quarter of 2018 exceeded expectations. The total export volume from January to February was about 373,000 tons, an increase of about 70% over the same period last year. Customs data for March has not been released, but polyester bottle flake factories generally had export orders in March. It is relatively good. The export volume of some major manufacturers in March was basically close to half of the output of that month, and the export volume in April was still quite large. Recently, the external market for bottle flakes has been equivalent to the internal market. Also due to tight spot supply, the external market price for bottle flakes has risen sharply under the boost of many favorable conditions.
Market outlook
Recent PTA There are constant news of maintenance, and the destocking channel has begun. In terms of the current tight spot situation, bottle flakes will not be able to get rid of the tight supply situation in the short term. And I heard that some bottle flake factories in South Korea and India have also stopped making external offers recently, so the domestic polyester bottle flake spot and near-month supplies are still slightly strong in the short term. However, the price of polyester bottle flakes has increased too much in recent days, and speculation factors cannot be ruled out. In the future, there may be a rational return. </p
