Since March this year, the entire nylon industry chain has been falling like a curse. The magnitude and duration of the decline can be said to be unprecedented. For example, nylon high-speed spinning chips fell from 21,300 yuan/ton in early March to 12,700 yuan/ton, a drop of nearly 40.3%, and nylon yarn FDY also dropped by 32.8%!
However, since mid-May last month, nylon has finally ended its three-month long decline, and the market has gradually recovered. A niche product in nylon yarn, 50D semi-gloss monofilament, continues to be popular! Downstream fabric manufacturers still have to queue up to receive goods in cash. Although they maintain a certain supply to old customers, due to the low monofilament output, it is difficult to meet the large demand of customers. Does this series of phenomena mean that the long-silent nylon market is finally about to recover?
Why can nylon stop falling and rebound?
1. Recently, the author also asked Mr. Jiang from Changle Jinjiang. He believes that the rebound of nylon is mainly due to the support of caprolactam in the upstream. Due to the tension in the upstream to obtain goods, it has driven the tension in the downstream. In addition, several consecutive With the monthly decline, manufacturers have a strong intention to turn around losses.
2. Domestic caprolactam device maintenance plan from May to June:
As can be seen from the table above, seven caprolactam manufacturers have maintenance plans starting from May and June. Luxi Chemical, Shandong Fangming, Lanhua Kechuang and other manufacturers with a production capacity of 100,000 tons have also started to stop maintenance in the near future. The market supply will be reduced, which is also an important reason for the recovery of caprolactam prices. We can clearly see from the chart below that caprolactam prices have bottomed out since mid-May, which is also the same time as the maintenance of some equipment begins. consistent.
From the figure below, we can see that as the shutdown and maintenance plan for multiple devices gradually begins, the inventory of caprolactam is also constantly decreasing. It has now reached its lowest point since March.
3. Polyester products are inseparable from international oil prices, and nylon is no exception. According to the latest news, many countries have announced that they are severing diplomatic relations with Qatar, causing instability in major oil-producing countries. Oil prices will face tight supply in the short term, and international oil prices may rise. As soon as the news came out, Brent crude oil rose by more than 1.5% to US$50.72 per barrel. WTI crude oil rose nearly 1.6% to US$48.40 per barrel. The increase in oil prices has been transmitted from top to bottom to pure benzene, caprolactam, nylon chips, and nylon yarn, bringing positive support to the entire nylon industry chain.
To sum up, the author believes that the off-season is about to enter. Judging from the current downstream fabric market conditions, the sales of nylon fabrics such as Nylon and Taslan are not optimistic. The sales volume has dropped by about 30% compared with April. It can be said that it is the off-season. The atmosphere is gradually getting thicker, so the possibility of a surge in nylon is not too great. However, the tight supply of caprolactam may lead to a weak rebound in the nylon industry chain for a period of time.
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