Last week, the Zheng cotton yarn CY2405 contract started a strong rise. Among them, the main CY2405 contract rose from 20,960 yuan/ton to 22,065 yuan/ton in just three trading days, an increase of 5.27%.
According to feedback from cotton spinning mills in Henan, Hubei, Shandong and other places, cotton yarn spot quotations generally increased by 200-300 yuan/ton after the holiday, which obviously cannot keep up with the rise in cotton yarn futures. From a statistical point of view, the performance of cotton yarn futures after the holiday was stronger than that of most commodity futures, which played a positive role in restoring the confidence of cotton spinning companies and narrowing the spinning losses.
Why did cotton yarn futures rise sharply last week? Industry analysis is mainly related to the following four factors: First, the price difference of cotton and cotton yarn futures needs to return to normal levels. Since late November, the CY2405 contract price has dropped from 22,240 yuan/ton to 20,460 yuan/ton, and has continued to consolidate in the range of 20,500-21,350 yuan/ton. The price difference between CY2405 and CF2405 contracts once fell below 5,000 yuan/ton, while textile company C32S The comprehensive processing cost of cotton yarn is generally around 6,500 yuan/ton, and the futures price of cotton yarn is obviously on the low side.
Second, cotton yarn futures and spot prices are seriously inverted, and the market needs to be repaired. Since late December, the spot quotation of C32S cotton yarn market was once higher than the CY2405 contract price by 1100-1300 yuan/ton. If the delivery financial costs, warehousing fees, warehousing fees, transaction delivery fees and other expenses are taken into account, the spot price of cotton yarn has been inverted. Even reaching around 1,500 yuan/ton, it is obvious that cotton yarn futures prices are too low.
Third, the cotton yarn spot market transactions have become warmer. Cotton yarn with counts of C40S and below performed slightly better. Most spinning companies have achieved remarkable results in yarn destocking (spinning mill inventories have dropped to less than one month). Against the background of increasing export orders and easing financial pressure, cotton yarn futures have a strong bullish sentiment. .
Fourth, the position, daily trading volume and warehouse receipt volume of Zheng cotton yarn are relatively low, and funds can easily cause wide fluctuations in the market. From a statistical point of view, as of January 5, 2023, the CY2405 contract position was more than 4,700 lots, and the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was only 123.
</p
