In the recent period, polyester manufacturers have begun to make “small moves” and continue to tentatively increase polyester prices.
Polyester yarn price of a factory in Hangzhou increased by 50-100 yuan/ton;
A factory in Shaoxing The FDY price quotation is raised by 50 yuan;
The price of polyester yarn from a factory in Wujiang is raised by 50 yuan/ton;
The price of polyester yarn from a major factory in Xiaoshan was partially increased by 50-100 yuan/ton
……
At this point, the prices of polyester filament products have increased to varying degrees compared with last week, especially for FDY and POY products, the increases have been more obvious.
So what are the reasons for this phenomenon?
1. Polyester yarn production capacity is highly concentrated, and large manufacturers support prices
At present, the domestic polyester industry chain is in the expansion and integration stage, especially the larger polyester companies in the industry, such as Tongkun, Rongsheng, Hengli, Hengyi, Shenghong, San Fangxiang and Xinfengming, etc., are still adding or acquiring polyester production capacity, and at the same time extending their industrial chain to the upstream raw material industry. As the concentration of the industry increases, the leading chemical fiber companies that occupy the top resources will undoubtedly have an advantage. Therefore, they have an increasingly strong say in polyester prices. If major manufacturers want to raise the price of polyester yarn, the price of polyester yarn will naturally rise.
2. PTA and ethylene glycol prices rise, polyester yarn gains cost support</o ; There is still a chance of an upside. Under the strength of crude oil, the overall cost-side driving force of the petrochemical industry continues to be strong. Affected by this, both PTA and ethylene glycol prices have rebounded, especially for ethylene glycol. Due to the recent slowdown in the growth rate of cargo arrivals, although shipments are average, the slow growth in main port inventory has supported the rise in ethylene glycol prices. Although the price of PTA is rising slowly, it is still better than the previous period. Therefore, the cost-end price has increased and stabilized, forming an effective support for the price of polyester filament.
3. Production and sales are picking up, gathering The increase in ester stocks has slowed down
In the recent period, the production and sales of polyester filament have picked up compared with the previous period, and the average production and sales of mainstream manufacturers have remained at 6-8% Nearby, products also show differentiation. Some manufacturers’ production and sales can even exceed 100%. In the early stage, the production and sales of mainstream polyester manufacturers have been hovering around 50%. Although production and sales are only slightly better now, with high polyester production, even a slight improvement in production and sales can slow down the growth of polyester inventories, thereby boosting polyester prices.
Looking at it now, The price of polyester yarn has a trend of rising, but this is not the first time that the price has risen and fallen. Moreover, in the post-epidemic era and the traditional textile off-season, polyester yarn will face more severe challenges than before, and the price is expected to It is still relatively difficult to continue to pull up.
1. Polyester storage is expected to be put into production in the second half of the year, and production capacity will be expanded again
In terms of supply, according to statistics, there are still 7 sets of new equipment planned to be put into production in the domestic direct spinning polyester filament industry in the second half of 2020, all of which are the expansion of production capacity of mainstream manufacturers, with a total production capacity of approximately 2.4 million. tons/year, including 1 million tons/year of Hengyi Group, 300,000 tons/year of Xinfengming Group, 500,000 tons/year of Tongkun Group, and 600,000 tons/year of Hengli Group. Under optimistic expectations, it is expected to be by the end of 2020 , domestic direct spinning polyester filament production capacity will exceed 34 million tons/year.
The further expansion of the supply side of polyester filament will undoubtedly put a significant pressure on its price. If production and sales cannot reach a level, the price may fall into a downward channel.
2. Weaving “low start-up” “, high inventory” suppresses enthusiasm for buying silk
As we all know, the price of polyester yarn is now very low. Even if it has increased a little recently, it is still at a low level. Historically low levels, but without demand, it is all in vain.
As the weaving market gradually enters the off-season, and high inventory has become a common problem, the operating rate of looms has only declined but not increased, which has a negative impact on the raw material polyester.The demand for filament yarns is gradually weakening, polyester yarn production and sales continue to be sluggish, and manufacturers have frequent discounts and promotions, but weaving companies are unable to sustain the payment, resulting in polyester yarn inventory continuing to accumulate. For downstream weaving manufacturers this year, the market has been weak and gray fabric inventories are high, which has led to increased financial pressure on most manufacturers. Therefore, weaving manufacturers have become more cautious when it comes to stocking up on raw materials.
3 Clothing companies have experienced a cold winter. Insufficient demand momentum
Under the impact of the epidemic, domestic and foreign clothing brands have been affected. Some brands are facing bankruptcy and closure, and some have to close many stores around the world. The global clothing industry is collectively experiencing a cold winter and is facing a major industry reshuffle. According to official data from the China Garment Industry Association, from January to May 2020, the retail sales of clothing products by units above designated size in my country totaled 288.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.6%, and the online retail sales of wearing goods fell by 6.8% year-on-year.
The prospects of terminal clothing companies are worrying, and naturally they are concerned about fabrics The demand will be further reduced, and going back to the upstream, gray fabrics and polyester yarns will also be affected.
It is a normal reaction for the price of polyester yarn to pick up after a sustained decline, but if it can continue to rise, whether it is from its own fundamentals, downstream weaving or Judging from the demand for terminal clothing, it seems that there is more than enough to do. In the short term, polyester filament prices are likely to bottom out and fluctuate.
</p
