In recent trading days,
Ethylene glycol can be described as “high-spirited and stealing the show”!
Futures, December 9, the main force in ethylene glycol futures The contract rose sharply by 2.7%; on December 10, the main contract rose sharply again by 1.63%; on December 11, the main contract closed at 4848 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.5%.
On the spot side, the spot price of ethylene glycol is also rising. , its internal price has now risen above the 5,000 yuan/ton mark; it has safely surpassed the PTA that was under heavy pressure in the early stage.
Both are polyester raw materials, but the recent PTA market is After a setback, it completely lost the arrogant state of “standing out from the crowd” in the early stage, and the decline further spread; the futures and spot market prices continued to fall, and was overtaken by ethylene glycol.
Both are upstream raw materials in the polyester market, why has PTA recently Going against ethylene glycol? The root cause is inventory!
In recent days, the ethylene glycol futures spot market has risen strongly, mainly This is due to its low inventory status. It is reported that due to recent poor port weather, Ningbo, Zhangjiagang and other major ports in East China have been closed, the arrival of ethylene glycol has been delayed, port inventories have continued to decline, and spot supply has become increasingly tight. It is currently below 500,000 tons, the lowest level in the new year. level.
In contrast, in the PTA market, due to the increase in its own device load As well as the early supply overdraft, the PTA market inventory is still being squeezed; it is understood that the current PTA social inventory exceeds 1.2 million tons.
“You rise and I fall” for the two major upstream raw materials ”, for the downstream “main force” polyester filament, does it bring boosting momentum? Or is there suppression?
In fact, in recent times, the polyester filament market has mostly been stagnant, with neither substantial upward movements nor large-scale increases. Price reduction measures. It is understood that most of the mainstream manufacturers’ quotations focus on stability. Of course, different manufacturers still have different degrees of negotiation discounts when the actual transaction is completed.
However, although the price performance of various products in the polyester filament market is relatively low Stable, but no matter in terms of production, sales, inventory or profit, for polyester manufacturers, there are still a lot of “bitter tears”!
1. Only 7% of weaving manufacturers have batch volume Sexual stocking intention, polyester production and sales are hard to say good
For downstream weaving manufacturers this year, the market is weak and gray fabric inventory is high, which has led to increased financial pressure for most manufacturers. , so weaving manufacturers appear to be more cautious when it comes to stocking up on raw materials before the end of the year. According to China Silk City Network’s survey on weaving manufacturers stocking up on raw materials at the end of the year, nearly half of the textile people choose to stock up on less raw materials, 15% of the textile people choose not to stock up on raw materials, 30% of the textile people choose to wait and see, and only 7 % of textile workers chose the same plan to stock up on raw materials as in the past.
It is not difficult to find that downstream weaving manufacturers are generally willing to stock up on raw materials. Not strong, on the one hand, it is worried about the price of raw materials, and on the other hand, it also reduces its own financial pressure. In the near future, most of the downstream markets are purchasing on demand, so the mainstream production and sales of the polyester market are hardly positive. Most of them are maintained at around 50-80%, and there are very few prices exceeding 100%.
2. �Although the pressure on polyester inventory has eased, it is still at a relatively high level year-on-year
Although, starting from December, some units of polyester manufacturers have gradually entered the In the maintenance stage, from late December to January, the polyester plant has a large-scale maintenance plan, which alleviates the inventory pressure to a certain extent. However, due to the low enthusiasm for stockpiling in the downstream market years ago, it is difficult for the mainstream production and sales of the polyester market to improve significantly. Therefore, the inventory decline of polyester manufacturers has eased, and the year-on-year gap is even more obvious. Judging from the statistics of China Silk City Network, the overall inventory of the polyester market is now concentrated in 12-21 days; in terms of specific products, POY inventory is around 5-10 days, FDY inventory is around 10-15 days, and DTY inventory is around 10-15 days. to about 18-23 days.
3. Polyester manufacturers’ losses expanded, FDY Bear the brunt
Before the end of the year, the profit status of various polyester filament products has affected the mood of polyester manufacturers. In recent months, the profit margins of polyester manufacturers have been further squeezed, with serious shrinkage and increasing losses. The first to bear the brunt is FDY, which has been in a loss situation for more than two months. Currently, its 150D loss space has increased to 163 yuan/ton. In recent trading days, POY and DTY products have also followed FDY and fallen into losses; according to data, POY150D has lost nearly 110 yuan/ton, while DTY150D has lost nearly 63 yuan/ton.
It is reported that the trading atmosphere of the polyester filament market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas improved on the 11th, and some manufacturers concentrated on increasing their sales; according to statistics, the production and sales of mainstream polyester factories increased sharply by around 160%-180%, with individual higher production and sales reaching 360% and 400%. Can the polyester filament market follow the pace of ethylene glycol and start a wave of rising prices? </p
