On December 10, 2018, ethylene glycol futures were officially listed on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. Today, it has been one year. .
After one year of development, ethylene glycol futures have become a new trend for textile people. Important points of concern. In recent times, while the “big brother” PTA futures have performed poorly, the “new army” ethylene glycol futures have attracted everyone’s attention with their good performance.
I found out that the oil price stopped rising Who is “swimming naked”
Recently, OPEC and non-OPEC The major oil-producing country Russia has reached a new production reduction agreement, agreeing to reduce production by an additional 500,000 barrels per day starting from January next year. Boosted by this good news, international crude oil has achieved a “five-day rise”, and the increase in international oil prices in a week reached 7.3%.
Driven by international oil prices, various links in the polyester industry chain, including PTA, ethylene glycol, PX and other products, have increased to varying degrees.
Among them, PX and ethylene glycol have increased even more, rising by US$15/ton and 58 yuan/ton respectively. PTA has increased slightly less, and the spot price of finished products has increased significantly. Increased by 20 yuan/ton.
This Monday, the rise in international oil prices stopped , on December 9, U.S. crude oil closed down 0.30%, and Brent crude oil closed down 0.22%. The fluctuations were not big. It was just a slight correction, but it caused polarization in the polyester market.
PTA, at noon on December 10, PTA futures suddenly began to dive. . As of 15:00 on December 10, the closing price of the main 2005 contract of PTA futures was 4850 points, down 58 points or 1.18% from the previous trading day, ending the previous “three consecutive positive” market.
Ethylene glycol behaves completely differently from PTA futures. On December 9, ethylene glycol rose sharply by 2.7%. As of 15:00 on December 10, the final closing price of the ethylene glycol futures 2001 contract was 4849 points, an increase of 78 points or 1.63% from the previous trading day.
When international oil prices rise, the entire polyester industry Chains were rising along with it. When oil prices began to correct, it was discovered who was “swimming naked.” In the final analysis, this was still due to fundamentals, and the one with the greatest impact was inventory.
In terms of PTA inventory, due to the sharp rise and fall of PTA in the third quarter of last year, which overdrawn the market, and due to the poor overall performance of the terminal textile industry this year, we can clearly feel that , since September last year, the PTA as a whole has been in a state of exhausted inventory. Although after October this year, PTA factories chose to increase maintenance efforts and slightly consume some inventory, this is still a temporary solution rather than a permanent solution. The current PTA social inventory still exceeds 1.2 million tons.
In terms of ethylene glycol inventory, compared with PTA , the port inventory of ethylene glycol is continuing to decline, and is currently below 500,000 tons, close to the lowest level during the year. Recently, due to poor port weather, major ports in East China such as Ningbo and Zhangjiagang have been continuously closed, and the arrival of ethylene glycol has been delayed. With the inventory in the own port warehouse being low, spot supply has become increasingly tight.
Gap in inventories causes ethylene glycol and PTA There has been a situation of two-level differentiation recently, but in the long run, these two products are really “same brothers”, and the prospects are not optimistic.
The supply pressure increases
In terms of PTA devices, the commissioning of Xinfengming’s 2.2 million-ton PTA device in November dealt a heavy blow to the already weak PTA market. Before the end of December, Hengli Petrochemical’s 2.5 million-ton PTA device, China Tai Chemical’s 1.2 million-ton PTA plant production plan may make PTA, which has finally made some progress recently, even worse.
In terms of ethylene glycol equipment, due to the overall performance of ethylene glycol profits in the first half of this year Unfortunately, the new production capacity originally planned to be put into operation has been continuously delayed. As of now, only a 100,000 tons/year syngas-to-MEG device in Xinjiang is discharging normally and operating stably. But this situation will�The future changes. Recently, Inner Mongolia Rongxin’s 400,000 tons/year ethylene glycol unit has been successfully commissioned and is scheduled to be put into production soon. In mid-December, Hengli Petrochemical’s 900,000 tons/year ethylene glycol unit is also preparing to be commissioned. Once these new units are officially launched, they will inevitably give B The glycol market has had a certain impact
Demand is tight
The textile market is not good this year, and the inventory of gray fabrics in weaving companies is too high, and the funds are The pressure is huge and I can’t spare much money to prepare raw materials. In addition, at the beginning of this year, polyester yarn prices fell due to high inventories in polyester factories, causing weaving companies to suffer considerable losses. Under the influence of these two factors, many weaving companies have doubts about whether and how much raw materials to stock up at the end of this year.
The current inventory of polyester factories exceeds 20 days, which is higher than the same period last year.
Under the pressure of high inventory, polyester this year The factory’s maintenance during the New Year may be far more intensive than in previous years. Some clues can be seen from the maintenance plan that has been announced recently.
PTA and MEG are both raw materials for the production of polyester yarn , high polyester inventory and declining production capacity will also suppress these two products at the demand level.
Editor’s note: When crude oil ends “5 During the “Lianyang” period, PTA immediately “revealed its true colors” and began to fall, while ethylene glycol continued to rise driven by low inventory. However, in the long run, due to the dual negative effects of insufficient downstream weaving demand and new equipment that is about to be put into production, the future prospects of PTA and ethylene glycol will not be very optimistic.
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