The World Bank recently released the June Global Economic Prospects report, making predictions and analysis of the world economy in the second half of 2021. The report predicts that global economic growth will reach about 5.6% this year, which is the fastest growth rate in the past 50 years and the fastest post-recession growth rate in the past 80 years. Among them, China’s economy is expected to grow by 8.5%.
High-speed economic growth means huge Market demand, for textile people who are highly dependent on foreign trade exports, the recovery of the overseas market economy brings no less joy than the recovery of the domestic economy. In 2020, 43 countries in the world with relatively large trade volume with my country imported various textile products from my country totaling more than 1.5 trillion yuan, especially the European Union, which exceeded 360 billion yuan, and the United States, which also reached 350 billion yuan. These data are still the result of the epidemic. This year, as the global epidemic situation improves and the economy recovers, the export volume of various textiles will reach a higher level.
The foreign trade market is loose, millions of meters of orders have been placed
The textile market has entered June and July It has entered the traditional off-season market, but this year’s market is quite unique. Although orders were not satisfactory during the traditional peak season of March and April, the off-season market that should have appeared now is not as deserted as imagined. Generally speaking, it is “not busy in peak season and not weak in off-season”.
According to the person in charge of a dyeing factory, the overall purchase volume of their dyeing factory this year has been relatively stable. Only at the beginning of the year did the purchase volume exceed one million? rice per day, during the peak season of March and April, it is generally around 700,000-800,000 meters, and the daily digestion capacity of gray cloth in the factory is probably more than 700,000 meters. The orders placed in March and April can basically ensure that the factory operates at full capacity every day, but it is still not as crowded as in previous years where the factory was stuck for more than a week. The weather has been getting hotter recently, and the market should have been getting weaker and weaker, but there are still surprises in the volume of positions. When it is low, it may be 500,000 meters per day, and when it is high, it can be as high as 800,000 meters. In the off-season of previous years, when there was less demand, only 200,000-300,000 meters could be entered into the warehouse every day.
And now most of the factories are doing They are some autumn and winter fabrics. To a certain extent, it can be said that autumn and winter orders for the second half of the year are being placed in advance. Most of these fabric orders, which are still four or five months away from the clothing launch, are foreign trade orders. According to a textile trader, they recently received orders for nearly 1.8 million meters of four-sided elastic, all of which were exported to India to be made into garments and then exported to the European market. They need to ship everything within 90 days, and they have to ship every 10 days. At present, this order is the largest foreign trade order they have received this year. The previous foreign trade orders were basically tens of thousands or several kilometers in volume.
The optimistic forecast of the overseas market in the second half of the year has already caused many autumn and winter orders to start stocking up in advance. Foreign trade orders have quietly recovered, but relatively speaking, the domestic trade market has not Not optimistic.
Costs are rising, orders are low, and factories are preparing for holidays
Due to the domestic epidemic, which started at the beginning of last year It has been effectively controlled, and the economy began to recover significantly in the second quarter of last year. As of now, the textile and apparel market has returned to normal, and it is difficult to rebound from the backlog of demand caused by overseas epidemics. Therefore, the overall order volume is relatively average.
According to a domestic trade textile person, they can place domestic trade orders every week this year. It seems like a lot, but the quantity of each order is stretched. , most of which are about 1000-5000 meters in size. Twenty or thirty such orders would only add up to tens of thousands of meters, and the profit would be quite meager. Basically, the price would be determined by the customer after shopping around.
Another weaving company also had the same feeling: “The factory’s customers are mainly domestic trade. Currently, there are only two or three types of fabrics in production. Elastic fabrics are relatively good, but the raw materials have risen too much recently, which has hurt us a lot. Our customers are very price-sensitive, and almost all customers and orders disappear when prices increase. Recently, the price of spandex has increased several times in a row. times, but we dare not increase the price and can only bear the rising costs ourselves. If we increase the price a few more times according to this trend, we will lose money. This year feels more difficult than last year. Although there were no orders last year, the price of raw materials was low. This year there is no orders, but the price of raw materials often rises. Recently we have plans to suspend production and take holidays to avoid the limelight of rising raw material prices.”
Although the domestic trade market is difficult to perform well due to its size and competition, the foreign trade market is rebounding rapidly with the recovery of overseas economies. , especially the autumn and winter market in the second half of the year, textile people will benefit from it. However, in the market, we must also be cautious that various costs such as raw materials, dyeing fees, and exchange rates will increase due to this situation, and be careful to reserve space when quoting in advance.
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