At a time when an unprecedented epidemic is sweeping the world, no one could have imagined that it would bring about a series of “butterfly effects.”
This is an era when oil is cheaper than water
Someone compared the price of oil with the price of water and found that a barrel of crude oil is equivalent to about 209 yuan at 30 US dollars. The price of Nongfu Spring with the same capacity is close to 300 yuan, and the price of a well-known perfume with the same capacity exceeds one million yuan.
Since Saudi Arabia started a price war with Russia, International crude oil has been in a state of plummeting, constantly breaking through the bottom price. Some market participants joked that “the floor is almost leaking.”
The flash crash of crude oil is like “a bucket that cannot be helped”. The market is focusing on whether it will fall below US$30/barrel or US$20/barrel. …..
Crude oil fell below $20
Sure enough, it “lives up to expectations”. On the 30th, international crude oil prices fell sharply again. The price of U.S. WTI crude oil futures once fell by more than 7% during the session, falling below the US$20/barrel mark, with the lowest price at US$19.92/barrel. This was the first drop since February 11, 2002. to below US$20/barrel. In addition, Brent crude oil futures prices once fell by more than 4%, with the lowest price at $26.56 per barrel.
PTA, ethylene glycol fell to the limit
Affected by crude oil again Affected by the negative factors of the plunge, the futures market also continued to follow the decline.
On the 30th, PTA futures fell to the limit, and the main 2005 contract closed at 3132 yuan/ton, which was a significant decrease of 186 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The decrease was 5.61%.
Ethylene glycol futures fell to the limit, with the main 2005 contract closing at 2,935 yuan/ton, a significant drop of 257 yuan/ton, or 8.05%.
Of course, in addition to the impact of crude oil, PTA , The weak fundamentals of ethylene glycol also inhibited the market trend. Especially in terms of inventory, it has become one of the “oil bottlers”. Currently, PTA social inventory is around 2.34 million tons, and ethylene glycol main port inventory in East China is around 1.14 million tons, both of which are already in a cumulative inventory cycle.
PTA insists on holding on to the 3,000-point mark, and ethylene glycol “misses”!
Polyester filament decline further expanded!
In the polyester industry chain, the prices of PTA and ethylene glycol have gone up and down, with the biggest impact being on the downstream polyester market. , polyester filament manufacturers are the first to bear the brunt. Especially in the past month or so, PTA and ethylene glycol have fallen daily, causing the downstream polyester filament to continue to fall and bottom out.
Under the continuous collapse of upstream costs, polyester The quotation focus of filament manufacturers has been declining, with constant discounts and promotions, and the decline of various polyester filament products continues to expand. In terms of specific products, the quotation of polyester filament FDY150D is around 5,450 yuan/ton, the quotation of POY150D product is around 4,935 yuan/ton, and the quotation of DTY150D product is concentrated at around 7,050 yuan/ton. Among them, POY products have suffered the largest decline, reaching nearly 29%, and their profits have also fallen into a loss dilemma.
Polyester market starts smoothly
But the downstream weaving is ready for a holiday
As the downstream of PTA and ethylene glycol, the polyester market’s market operating rate has been quite stable since this year. It is currently concentrated at around 84%. There is no significant difference compared with the same period in previous years. This is a great benefit for the PTA market. Boost your energy. However, the downstream weaving market is not strong.
Affected by the outbreak of the new crown epidemic at home and abroad, the weaving market has been scarred. In particular, the foreign epidemic that everyone is currently paying attention to has spread uncontrollably, causing global panic to intensify and demand to shrink severely. The textile industry has also been deeply affected. Many foreign trade orders have been canceled and delayed, price reductions have also occurred frequently, and profit margins have shrunk significantly. Many foreign trade companies are almost at a standstill with their orders, and some foreign trade companies have already taken a “holiday” on their own.
Domestic trade is also not satisfactory. Many companies say they will receive few orders after the year, but weaving inventories are rising. According to sample companies statistics from China Silk City Network, the current gray fabric inventory of weaving companies in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has risen to around 40-41 days.
Orders have shrunk, inventories have increased, and many weaving The company decided to implement holidays and reduce production during the peak season of “Gold, Three, Silver and Four”. It is reported that a well-known company will have a holiday starting from April 1st; the boss of Yibu said that it has recently reduced its production capacity to 1/3; at the same time, a company with 300 looms also said that it will shut down some machines in the middle of next month. ….
The weaving market has entered the off-season ahead of schedule, which naturally reduces the motivation to purchase raw materials from the demand side. For PTA and ethylene glycol, The decline in prosperity of the downstream weaving market is the biggest constraint.
When it is supposed to be the peak season, both the polyester market and the weaving market are full of green. The biggest reason is still the continuous fermentation of the epidemic. Currently, the number of confirmed cases of the epidemic in the United States ranks first in the world. Trump said that the new coronavirus may cause 100,000 to 200,000 deaths in the United States, and the U.S. mortality rate may reach its peak in the next two weeks.
The U.S. economy has always affected the nerves of the global financial and futures markets, especially crude oil, which is greatly affected by the news. The rise and fall of crude oil directly affects the trends of PTA and ethylene glycol. Ethylene glycol has fallen below 3,000 points, and judging from the current epidemic and economic situation, it is very difficult for PTA to hold the 3,000 point mark.
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