I really don’t know how to do this business this year. How should I fix it? –Voices from textile bosses
Recently, the continuous fermentation of foreign epidemics has led to the continuous cancellation of foreign trade orders in the textile industry, internal and external worries, and many textile bosses We all feel sad. In addition to shrinking orders, falling raw material prices have also made textile companies anxious.
The current situation of polyester filament cannot be described with the word “miserable”.
For more than a month since the resumption of work after the end of the year, the price of polyester filament has been in a downward channel, and the focus of quotations of various manufacturers and specifications has been significantly reduced. Specifically, the price of polyester filament FDY products is around 5,500 yuan/ton, the price of POY products is around 5,000 yuan/ton, and the price of DTY products is around 7,200 yuan/ton.
As can be seen from the table, the prices of polyester filament products have dropped by nearly 2,000 yuan. Specifically, the price of FDY products dropped by about 1,870 yuan/ton from the previous month, a decrease of 25.44%; the price of POY products dropped by about 1,900 yuan/ton from the previous month, a decrease of 27.54%; the price of DTY products dropped by about 1,450 yuan/ton from the previous month, a decrease of 16.76% .
Some time ago, polyester prices fell On the contrary, its profits continue to rise. However, in recent days, profits have also begun to decline, especially POY products, which have fallen into a loss situation. Compared with the same period last month, profits have plummeted by more than 100%! The price of FDY products has also dropped by nearly 90%, and only DTY still maintains relatively high profits among the three products.
Polyester filament is an important trend in the textile market One of the indicators, the current decline has hit the market confidence that was already on the verge of collapse. The trend of polyester yarn continues to decline, which is inseparable from its own inventory, cost-end PTA, and downstream demand.
High inventory level
The most commonplace thing is the polyester itself The inventory has reached a historical high, and the high inventory has suppressed the rise in polyester filament prices.
From the statistical data of China Silk City Network, the overall inventory of the polyester market is now concentrated at 34-45 days; in terms of specific products, POY inventory is up to 28 -35 days, FDY inventory is around 29-36 days, while DTY inventory is around 34-45 days.
Cost collapse
PTA, as one of the most important raw materials for polyester filament, forms an effective cost support for the price of polyester filament. However, starting from the end of the year, affected by various negative factors such as the plunge in crude oil and the turbulence of global stock markets, PTA futures came under obvious pressure and the price plummeted.
Currently, the internal price of PTA is around 3,240 yuan/ton, a drop of nearly 1,000 yuan from the same period last month. And we all know that in fact, the price of PTA has been falling since last year, and now it is close to its lowest price. With the cost collapse, it is naturally difficult to support the price of polyester filament.
Shrinking demand
“Gold, three, silver and four” The traditional textile peak season is difficult to reflect this year. When the market first resumed, domestic trade orders remained sluggish due to slow logistics recovery and low worker attendance rates. Coupled with insufficient market demand, weaving companies were underoperated.
Now, the foreign trade market is severely hindered due to the ongoing epidemic. Many export orders have been canceled and some orders have been suspended, which has severely affected market confidence. Recently, polyester production and sales have continued to be sluggish, with average production and sales only maintaining at 30-50%, and it is difficult to break through.
The current situation of polyester yarn is worrying, and the market is more optimistic When it is empty, the load has been rising continuously recently. Why is this?
Market lag
When the market just resumed, The operating rate of polyester factories has increased significantly. The most important reason is that the market has just resumed and there is a lag in the market.
A few years ago, due to the continuous decline in the price of polyester filament, polyester factories decided to limit production and protect prices, which greatly reduced the operating rate. In addition to the Spring Festival holiday, the operating rate has been low. promote. After the year, the market began to slowly resume work, and the load of polyester yarn began to slowly increase. Although market demand has shrunk, the market is lagging behind and has not yet stopped.Obviously, the load of polyester yarn is almost the same as that of the same period in previous years.
Market Confidence
Recently, the polyester filament load is around 74.7%, only up from last week 0.5%. At this time, the market situation has been “blacklisted” by most textile people. The falling polyester prices have made weaving manufacturers choose a wait-and-see attitude towards raw materials.
Confidence is more important than gold. If polyester manufacturers choose to reduce production at this time, it will inevitably undermine market confidence. Therefore, even if their inventory has reached a historically high level, they cannot reduce production at will. On the contrary, if you add a little bit of work occasionally, no matter whether there is “moisture” or not, it can at least stabilize the morale of the military. Of course, the cost of shutting down polyester factory machinery is also very high, and the market may improve when the situation improves.
As far as the current situation is concerned, the polyester factory is actually It is “holding on”. Prices and profits have shrunk severely, but polyester manufacturers have chosen to increase operating rates, which is not easy.
According to the latest news, outside of China, the number of confirmed cases of the new coronavirus worldwide has exceeded 500,000, and the number of confirmed cases in the United States has exceeded 100,000, quickly approaching the “epicenter” of the global epidemic. If the foreign epidemic cannot be basically controlled in a short period of time, it will be the biggest negative for the polyester market and the textile market.
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