Due to the continuous escalation of the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic, in order to control the spread of the epidemic, the country has implemented measures to extend the Spring Festival holiday, and local governments have extended the holiday period. city time. The time for people across the country to “confinement” at home also passes very quickly, and in a blink of an eye, the end of the national holiday has come.
On the 3rd, each futures market opened for the first time after the Spring Festival, attracting many eyes. What is the trend of each futures market?
Crude oil: subject to this Affected by the epidemic, on February 3, China’s crude oil futures fell by the limit at the opening, and crude oil futures closed at 415.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.01%.
External crude oil is also not immune. On February 3, Brent crude oil closed at $51.170 per ton overnight, a decrease of 1.25%. WTI crude oil closed at $51.170 per ton overnight, a decrease of 0.76%.
Polyester raw materials: February 3 , the main 2005 contract of ethylene glycol futures closed at 4,384 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 279 yuan/ton, or 5.98%, compared with the previous trading day.
February 3, PTA futures main force 2005 The contract closed at 4,479 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 338 yuan/ton or 7.03% compared with the previous trading day.
Although the decline of each futures It is within the expectations of industry insiders, but let’s briefly look at the reasons for the decline.
Crude oil, as the most source product of the polyester industry chain, is most susceptible to political, geographical and other factors. Recently, oil prices have continued to fall as global public health events have dampened market demand expectations for crude oil. At the same time, EIA expects that U.S. crude oil production will continue to increase, and as U.S. domestic demand declines, oil prices may be further squeezed.
PTA, ethylene glycol fell to the limit , the new coronavirus epidemic is still the main reason.
As of 24:00 on February 2, the National Health Commission has received cumulative reports from 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps There were 17,205 confirmed cases, 31 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the Central Government) and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps reported 2,829 new confirmed cases (2,103 cases in Hubei Province), 186 new severe cases (139 cases in Hubei Province), and 57 new deaths. cases (56 cases in Hubei Province and 1 case in Chongqing City).
The cumulative number of new cases and deaths remains The epidemic continues to grow, and the new coronavirus epidemic has not been basically controlled. The continuous fermentation of the epidemic has also affected the market trading atmosphere and put market confidence under pressure. To a certain extent, it accelerated the decline of PTA and ethylene glycol.
Of course, the lowering of PTA and ethylene glycol is closely related to high inventory and low demand.
PTA and ethylene glycol stocks are difficult to get rid of
From the statistical data, on January 17, PTA social inventory was around 1.375 million tons. Due to the stockpiling operation of downstream polyester factories a year ago, the inventory dropped slightly from the beginning of January, but from January 2019 From the beginning of the month to the present, PTA social inventory is still at a high level.
January 17, Ethylene Glycol East China The main port inventory is around 432,000 tons. Overall, the current ethylene glycol inventory is close to the low level during the year. However, during the Spring Festival, MEG, the main port in East China, began to accumulate inventory. At present, the total inventory is about 670,000 tons, an increase of 238,000 tons (432,000 tons on January 17). Among them, Ningbo has 108,000 tons, Shanghai and Changshu 90,000 tons, Zhangjiagang 207,000 tons, Taicang 128,000 tons, Jiangyin 41,000 tons, and Changzhou 96,000 tons.
Although there are still polyester companies during the Spring Festival It is in operation, but due to the epidemic, the polyester factory itself is also accumulating inventory. In 2019, the polyester industry has been plagued by high inventory. The average inventory of polyester factories reached a maximum of 24 days. Coupled with the unfavorable destocking market last year,…Until the Spring Festival holiday, the inventory of polyester factories was still at a high level. Now polyester factories are still producing polyester yarn, and the inventory is countless. The demand for upstream PTA and ethylene glycol has begun to be cautious. Therefore, when the market has not fully returned to normal, PTA and ethylene glycol will be difficult to remove from inventory, affecting the futures trend.
Weaving companies have delayed the start of work, and the resumption of work is unknown
Downstream weaving The demand of manufacturers is also an important factor affecting the trends of PTA and ethylene glycol.
Due to the rising epidemic situation some time ago, the State Council issued a notice to extend the Spring Festival holiday. In response to the call, weaving companies in various places also issued notices to delay the opening of the market: Textile, printing and dyeing enterprises in Shengze, Keqiao, Changxing, Guangzhou, Nantong, Fujian and other places will resume work after the fifteenth day of the first lunar month!
However, in view of the current severe situation of prevention and control of the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic, in order to further prevent the spread and spread of the epidemic, the Shengze General Chamber of Commerce recommends that member companies of the chamber of commerce, The governing units of the General Chamber of Commerce have postponed their resumption of work for 5 days (after 24:00 on February 14); at the same time, Zhejiang China Textile City Group also issued a notice that the market opening time will be postponed to after February 17.
At this point in time, workers had already begun to arrive Back in the city, various weaving companies have begun to operate step by step. The market should be a bustling scene, but this year the situation is completely deserted. Regarding this year’s market situation, many weaving bosses are sighing. They don’t know when work can resume normally. Whether the market can open on the 11th day of the first lunar month is still unknown.
It is difficult for weaving companies to resume work. Even if the epidemic is over and factories can open, it is difficult to determine whether all workers can come. Market conditions for half a year. It is difficult for weaving companies to open their business, and the production and sales of polyester yarns are naturally deserted. The demand for upstream PTA and ethylene glycol is even less.
Until the epidemic is brought under control, it is unknown when weaving companies will start operations, and the trend of polyester raw materials will also be affected. But epidemic prevention and control is the most important thing for people across the country now. When the epidemic starts to develop in a good direction, I believe everything will get better. Have confidence and defeat the epidemic! Let’s wait for spring to bloom together!
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