As polyester and polyester prosper, the chemical fiber industry prospers.
It is no exaggeration to use this sentence to describe the pivotal position of the polyester and polyester industry in the entire chemical fiber industry. The output of polyester polyester accounts for about 80% of my country’s total chemical fiber output every year. It contributes the largest profit to the entire industry and is a veritable “big deal”.
But in 2019, the entire polyester industry chain has experienced a period of pain. As a strong player in the chemical fiber industry, polyester filament is naturally no exception. In 2019, the polyester filament market experienced a trough, with prices hitting a three-year low, total profits significantly reduced, and inventories continuing to increase. How can it be so miserable?
Let’s start with specific products Let’s review the situation of the polyester filament market in 2019.
From polyester filament yarns Judging from product price and profit trends, all polyester products suffered heavy losses in 2019.
Judging from polyester filament POY150D, the average price of POY products in 2019 was around 7,918 yuan/ton; in terms of profit, POY in 2019 The average profit value of the product is about 222 yuan/ton.
From the perspective of polyester filament DTY150D, the average price of DTY products in 2019 is around 9,550 yuan/ton; in terms of profit, the average profit value of DTY products in 2019 is About 154 yuan/ton.
From the perspective of polyester filament FDY150D, the average price of FDY products in 2019 is around 8,370 yuan/ton; in terms of profit, the average profit value of FDY products in 2019 is About 274 yuan/ton.
The reasons for the decline in the polyester market to varying degrees include the rapid expansion of polyester production capacity and the inability to provide sustained support due to constant fluctuations in upstream costs. The important factor is still the shrinking downstream demand.
Polyester pongee and polyester taffeta, as the most common downstream products, occupy “half of the market”, which best reflects the current situation of the textile market. 2017 is an era when the machine rings, and gold comes in thousands. This hot market has continued into 2018. However, since 2019, the market has begun to decline, and the most common fabrics such as pongee and polyester taffeta have begun to enter a “dead end.” From “Internet celebrity” to “rag cloth”, it only took them less than two years.
Prices are shrinking, and “brothers in distress” have nothing to lose
It is said that you get what you pay for, and price is the most direct expression of the value of a product. But it is not very appropriate to use it in the textile market in 2019. Due to the imbalance between market supply and demand, production capacity began to explode. The first to bear the brunt were conventional products, with pongee and polyester taffeta being the most representative. It’s not that it’s worthless, it’s that there are too many!
As can be seen from the table below, from 2018 to 2019, the prices of various product specifications of pongee and polyester taffeta have declined to varying degrees, with the declines exceeding 30%. Products such as pongee and polyester taffeta are high-volume products. Their prices are not high and their profits are even smaller. After continuous price drops, manufacturers even suffer losses. Especially in the off-season of July and August, the phenomenon of selling goods in the market disrupts the price pattern, and many manufacturers sell at a loss. However, if you sell, someone will want it. When the market cannot digest so much production capacity, inventories begin to pile up.
From the statistics of China Silk City Network In 2019, the inventory of weaving enterprises reached a maximum of about 43 days, which was about 5 days higher than the maximum inventory days of 38 days in 2018.
Insufficient power in clothing demand, warm winter Down jackets are in trouble
The apparel industry is the final demand side for gray fabrics, but in 2019, the downturn in the apparel industry is also a commonplace issue .
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, national retail sales of clothing products increased year by year from 2011 to 2017, but the growth rate slowed down year by year. In 2017, the national retail sales of clothing products reached 1.03654 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%; in 2018, the national retail sales of clothing products was 987.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.8%. The retail sales of clothing products showed negative growth for the first time. As of the first half of 2019, retail sales of clothing products reached 474.97 billion yuan.
The reduction in demand for clothing is also confirmed by the side. The current situation of fabric and gray cloth market. Especially 2018 and 2019 are a yearThe expectation of a warm winter has greatly reduced the market demand for cold-proof clothing. As the most common fabrics for cold-proof clothing, pongee and polyester taffeta have been implicated in the decline in demand, which has intensified the decline in the prices of pongee and polyester taffeta.
As of the end of 2019, the market still has not changed much. Mr. Shi, who owns 270 looms, said: “What we mainly do is pongee and polyester taffeta, covering both domestic and foreign trade. The market for pongee this year is too bad, so we just run the volume, and now we have The order has basically been completed, but the machines are still fully operational and the load cannot be reduced casually. The inventory is nearly 3 million meters.”
Another owner of 80 looms Mr. Feng, the owner of a polyester taffeta manufacturer, also said: “Our small factory will have all the machines running at the end of 2019, but the inventory will be more than 1 million meters. Manufacturers generally have a lot of inventory! It’s not easy!”
From clothing, we can see the market conditions for gray fabrics, and from gray fabrics, we can see the market conditions for polyester filaments. The industrial chain complements each other from bottom to top. The market situation in 2019 is indeed very poor, and it is understandable to be labeled as “the worst year for the textile market”. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, the market situation has come to an end. After the market has been recovering for a period of time, will it be able to usher in a new year after the beginning of the new year? What about “a good start”?
</p
