Signed! ! !
On the morning of January 15, local time in Washington, the signing ceremony of the first phase of the China-US economic and trade agreement was held in the East Room of the White House. Liu He, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, Vice Premier of the State Council, and Chinese leader of the China-US Comprehensive Economic Dialogue, and US President Trump jointly signed the text of the agreement and delivered a speech.
The text of the agreement includes preamble, intellectual property rights, technology transfer, food and agricultural products, financial services, exchange rate and transparency, trade expansion, bilateral assessment and dispute settlement, and final terms Nine chapters. At the same time, the two sides reached an agreement that the United States will fulfill its commitments to phase out additional tariffs on Chinese products and achieve a shift from raising tariffs to lowering them.
China-US trade has lasted for nearly 2 years, giving the global market It brought a lot of panic. The textile market also seems to be on a “roller coaster”, which has been changing with the trend of Sino-US trade. For the textile market, every good news released by Sino-US trade is more like a “wolf coming”, which in turn makes the market conditions worse. Adding insult to injury. Especially in foreign trade, the reaction was even more intense.
According to statistics, in 2019, China’s textile and apparel exports totaled US$271.875 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.22%; my country’s exports of textile yarns, fabrics and products US$120.1992 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.7%; my country’s exports of clothing and clothing accessories were US$151.3676 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.0%.
It can be seen that the external situation faced by China’s textile industry in recent years has been relatively severe, with export profit margins falling month-on-month, and the main export markets Europe and the United States. There are insufficient orders in major markets such as China and Japan, and it is difficult to completely alleviate the export pressure on the industry. Sino-US trade has exacerbated these phenomena.
The textile industry chain is continuous from top to bottom. In addition to the downturn in clothing exports, the weaving market is also not having an easy time in 2019. Funds are tight. It is difficult to sell products and there is a backlog of inventory. Sino-US trade has made things worse, and the future of the weaving market is worrying.
China-U.S. trade is getting worse, and the U.S. trade is more than blocked.
Amid the bleak market prospects, Sino-US trade has become another “push driver.” In many visits and surveys, most cloth bosses said that Sino-US trade has a great impact. The international environment and the textile market are closely related and influence each other. The macro environment plays an important role in promoting the price trends of raw materials and gray fabrics. The back-and-forth trade between China and the United States has put companies under tremendous pressure. In 2019, when the trade prospects between China and the United States were unclear, the editor heard the voices of some cloth bosses.
Manager Wu, who owns 600 looms and specializes in chiffon, said: “The impact of Sino-US trade is still huge, although we do not directly export it to the outside world. Export, but customers who buy gray fabrics from us export to the United States. This year, the number of orders has obviously dropped a lot, but there is nothing we can do. Exporting is difficult.”
Mr. Li from a well-known company in Jiangsu and Zhejiang revealed: “55% of our company’s products are exported. Although exports to the United States are less, it still has an impact. Now we basically can’t receive orders from North America.”
At the same time, Manager Ma, who owns 500 water-jet looms, also said: “The market was not satisfactory in 2019. After the rise of peripheral looms, low-end products could not be sold at all, and the Sino-US trade has only added fuel to the fire. With just a handful of oil, our company’s U.S. orders have shrunk by 80%, and foreign trade is too difficult.”
This time, China and the United States successfully signed the In the first phase of the economic and trade agreement, the textile market is still most concerned about tariff issues. This agreement enables the United States to achieve a transition from increasing tariffs to reducing tariffs on China, including suspending the tariffs originally scheduled to be imposed on December 15 last year, and increasing the tariff rate on China that took effect on September 1 last year from 15 % dropped to 7.5%.
Tariff reduction is in line with the first The anticipation of stage negotiations also provides the initiative for the next stage of negotiations. What specific impact does this have on the entire textile industry chain?
For polyester raw materials, In 2019, the polyester raw material market continued to plummet. In the first half of the year, PTA could still make a profit of 1,000 yuan, but in the second half of the year, it reached a loss situation. , as of January 15, PTA’s profit was only 2 yuan/ton, a drop of nearly 900% compared to the peak profit of 1,787 yuan/ton in 2019! Although ethylene glycol has improved in the second half of the year, it relies more on low inventory to support prices rather than high demand.
On the 15th, after the Sino-US agreement was reached, the polyester raw material market remained calm and showed no major fluctuations. It can be seen that although the macroeconomic benefits have driven it, it is now during the Spring Festival holiday, and the market lacks vitality and demand has weakened. There is no significant fluctuation in raw materials. However, once the market improves after the start of the new year, the substantial benefits of Sino-US trade may become one of the important reasons for the future rise in the market.
For polyester filament,2019 Due to the shrinking demand in the weaving market, raw polyester yarns are basically purchased on demand. Even the routine operation of stocking up raw materials at the end of the year is smaller than in previous years. As a result, the price of polyester filament continued to fall in 2019. Polyester manufacturers gradually lost their say and found it difficult to Price increase. Now that Sino-US trade is improving, it will enhance the confidence of polyester manufacturers and consolidate their reasons for raising prices.
In recent days, the price of polyester yarn has basically remained stable. It can be seen that there is also a lag in macroeconomic benefits, which is not absolute. The price trend of polyester yarn is not only driven by macroeconomics, but also needs support from demand.
For weaving manufacturers, the previous repeated Sino-US trade This has more or less brought disadvantages to weaving manufacturers, making it more difficult for manufacturers to receive orders. Now that China and the United States have signed the first phase of the economic and trade agreement and reduced tariffs, the backlog of orders for two years may explode after the beginning of the new year, and customers who were cautious in placing orders before may also increase their order volume.
However, this tariff adjustment only reduces taxes on textiles worth US$120 billion. The tariff issue on another US$175 billion of exports to the United States has not yet been resolved. There are still variables in textile exports, and we still need to pay attention to the next stage. The direction of economic and trade agreements.
In the past two years, the market has suffered from the unclear direction of Sino-US trade, and there is a strong sense of worry. Now, China and the United States have signed the first phase of the economic and trade agreement, which is a major benefit. It has injected a stabilizing factor into the Chinese and American economies and the world economy. It is not only beneficial to the economies of China and the United States, but also to the world economy. As far as the textile market is concerned, the positive signals released by Sino-US trade will definitely inject a “boost” into the polyester market, consolidate the direction of raw materials, and at the same time, assist the foreign trade market after the beginning of the new year.
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