When I recently communicated with some textile bosses, the common feeling was that the situation in the entire textile industry chain was very grim.
How serious is it? The upstream and downstream of the industrial chain have a deeper experience. In the past half year, both weaving and polyester companies have been controlling output and reducing prices to reduce inventory… Whether they are leading companies or small and micro enterprises, they are under great pressure, and some of their partners have even quietly withdrawn.
So in 2019, chemical fiber products, as the upstream of the textile industry, have also been “stumbling” along the way:
In sharp contrast to the booming market at the beginning of 2018, the bulk textile raw materials in 2019 Ending with “a piece of green”, let’s see who is the most lonely, and who has stepped down from the altar…
The market has stalled, and polyester filament has stepped down from the ” altar “: It fell about 15% year-on-year, and profits were once lost!
2019 is a very complicated year for the polyester filament industry. While the industry’s prosperity has declined, prices have also hit new lows in the past three years, which is consistent with the market situation in 2018. In sharp contrast. This year, polyester filament production capacity exceeded the 40 million tons milestone, with most of the new production capacity concentrated in Tongkun, Xinfengming, and Hengyi companies. Overall, the growth rate of production capacity has slowed down compared with 2018. However, the downstream textile market has also ushered in the “literally worst year”, so the demand for polyester filament has not been very enthusiastic. Whether it is texturing or weaving companies, this year’s stocking of raw materials is based on demand, and they are cautious. Even at the time of large-scale stocking up on the eve of the Spring Festival every year, market production and sales have been difficult to sustainably improve. Many textile bosses said that they had suffered losses at the end of last year and would not stock up more this year, and the funds on hand did not allow it.
Polyester giants are still desperately competing for market share, but the demand side is unable to absorb it , resulting in a significant drop in the price of polyester filament this year. As of December 31, the price of FDY150D dropped from the highest point of 8150 to 7600 yuan/ton; POY150D dropped from 7950 to 7120 yuan/ton, and DTY150D dropped from 9400 to 8850 yuan. /Ton.
The polyester manufacturer that used to “earn ten thousand taels of gold every time the machine rings” has seen its overall profit this year be relatively weak, especially the once domineering “king” FDY product that bore the brunt of the loss in the first half of the year. The market situation is relatively stable, but in the fourth quarter due to discount promotions, profits shrank sharply, especially in October and November, when the company was basically in a loss situation.
FDY’s excessive decline is inseparable from the poor performance of its downstream products. In terms of products, polyester FDY is generally the main raw material for conventional chemical fiber fabrics such as polyester taffeta and imitation silk. In 2019, there was obvious overcapacity in the entire conventional fabric market. The price of products led by polyester taffeta fell by about 20-40%, and some specifications have even been hovering at the profit and loss line. As a result, manufacturers are even less interested in the demand for FDY. Demand determines price, which leads to poor profitability of FDY.
The most lonely Viscose staple fiber: price dropped by 30%, no profit for the whole year!
Which raw material has suffered the worst decline in 2019, and it is none other than viscose staple fiber. The viscose staple fiber market has been in a state of continuous decline in 2019. Mainstream manufacturers have been relatively passive in their operations, and prices have fallen to “historical lows” in recent years. In 2017, viscose staple fiber can be said to be “making money every day” and becoming a dark horse in the industry. After two years, viscose staple fiber has experienced leap-forward changes. The production capacity has been expanded by nearly 1 million tons, from 4.06 million tons in 2017 to 5.05 million tons in 2019. This also establishes that viscose staple fiber in 2019 will definitely be under pressure from production capacity.
The overall economic environment is not good this year. The demand for domestic and foreign trade in the textile and apparel industry is weak, and the demand for raw materials The purchasing enthusiasm of the yarn mills is not good, which makes the cotton mills’ life difficult. It is understood that some yarn mills have switched to producing polyester yarn due to the extremely low profit margins of rayon yarn, which has further reduced the demand for viscose staple fiber. The market oversupply is difficult to change, and the prices of mainstream manufacturers can only fall again and again. 12 In March, it fell directly below the 10,000 yuan mark, a price that has never been seen in the past five years. As of the end of December, the price of mid-end viscose staple fiber 1.5D was 9,400-9,600 yuan/ton, and the price of high-end viscose staple fiber was 9,600-9,800 yuan/ton, which was a drop of 4,100 yuan/ton from the highest point during the year, a drop of as much as 30.15 %.
In addition, in addition to losing the right to speak, manufacturers’ profits from viscose staple fiber in 2019 It is also very “bleak” and has been in a deep loss space and it is difficult to get better. Because of this, approximately 180,000 tons of production capacity was withdrawn from the market during the year, and approximately 16,000 tons of production capacity were withdrawn from the market.Production capacity of 10,000 tons has been suspended for a long time, and companies have been forced to give up profits, resulting in serious profit losses.
If it is so difficult, why persist? In fact, for many textile people, the question of whether to stay or go has always been an ever-present question in their minds. Especially in 2019, which has been particularly hard, it is still not enough to dispel the enthusiasm of many textile people. After all, the market is not stagnant forever. When the norm When products face the embarrassing situation of overcapacity, the sales of many products are rising.
The most typical one is the T400 and T800 fabrics brought out in the second half of the year. That trend!
In the second half of 2019, there is a name that is often mentioned, and that is T400. Hard to find”! This also ignited the enthusiasm of its raw material market.
“At that time, we had been queuing up at the raw material factory, waiting to get goods to weave fabrics, and the supply of raw materials exceeded demand!” said Mr. Wang, a textile boss in the middle of the year. Indeed, since the market opened the “new era of non-ammonia super elasticity”, fabrics headed by T400 have ushered in a wave of “spring”. In September and October of 2019, T400 has been occupying the mainstream of the market and attracted countless attention. From the warehouse receipt to the dyeing schedule of many dyeing factories, the T400’s schedule definitely occupies half of the market. It is rare to see other products. Fabric Scheduling
T400, as a new type of elastic composite fiber, does not contain spandex but has good elasticity, and it solves the problem that spandex is not easy to dye and has excessive elasticity. , complex weaving, unstable fabric dimensions, aging of spandex during use, and many other problems. It gives fabrics a smoother texture and softer feel than textured yarns, and end uses include a variety of men’s, women’s and children’s clothing.
In addition, the demand for recycled raw materials driven by recycled fabrics is also relatively strong. Although The price of gray fabrics of recycled fabrics is 50% more expensive than traditional fabrics, and the price of raw materials is also much higher. However, there are still many domestic and foreign brands willing to pay for “recycling”, and the market still has a huge demand space.
In general, textile people did not have a comfortable life in 2019, ranging from domestic and foreign macroeconomic conditions to changes in demand for various categories. However, no matter what the market situation, There is no market that can only fall but not rise, or only rise but not fall. In 2020, the market situation of upstream and downstream games will continue to appear, let us wait and see!
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