On January 3, 2020, Qasem Soleimani, commander of Iran’s “Quds Force”, was “surprise beheaded” by a U.S. drone Death. Global financial markets were shaken, with Brent crude oil futures rising 3.5% month-on-month.
Domestic crude oil futures have also continued to rise. After rising 3.72% last Friday, the main crude oil price rose nearly 6% in early trading on Monday (January 6). It hit the daily limit, with the highest price quoted at 516 yuan/barrel.
Affected by the rise in crude oil, on January 6, Products in the polyester industry chain also rose sharply.
PTA futures, the main PTA futures 2005 contract closed at 5098 points at 15:00 on January 6, an increase of 104 points or 2.08% from the previous trading day.
In terms of ethylene glycol futures, ethylene glycol futures The closing price of the main 2005 contract on January 6 was 4,753 points, an increase of 110 points or 2.37% from the previous trading day.
In terms of polyester filament, a factory in Wujiang held FDY Week The six parts rose by 50-100, with discounts in terms of volume; the FDY part of a factory in Wuxi rose by 50 on Saturday, and the DTY part of a factory in Zhejiang rose by 50, basically in a stable and rising situation.
Geopolitics is a very important factor affecting international oil prices. After two Saudi oil facilities were bombed on September 14, 2019, the price of Brent crude oil futures fell within one day. Soared 20%. The Gulf War and the Iraq War also caused international oil prices to rise sharply for a period of time. Crude oil is the most raw material for polyester products, and its price changes directly affect the cost and price of polyester products. No matter what the subsequent development of this US-Iran conflict will be, judging from the current situation alone, polyester raw materials have Deeply affected by it.
Polyester raw materials have risen, but “The price rises at the wrong time”!
However, in contrast to the price increase of polyester raw materials, the production and sales situation of polyester factories is not ideal. Why is this?
It has gone up, but do you have the money to buy it?
In market research at the end of last year, most weaving companies said that this year’s factory holidays would be around New Year’s Day. It can be deduced from this that now that New Year’s Day has passed, some weaving companies have begun to take holidays and workers have gone home. The best time to buy raw materials has been missed.
Of course, even if the holiday is already on, weaving companies can still pre-purchase raw materials for next year through over-ticketing and other methods. Here we will talk about why weaving companies take the holiday so early. . Why release it so early? It’s not because there is no money.
For weaving enterprises, they need to face two very serious problems before the Chinese New Year. One is excessive gray fabric inventory, and the other is difficult to collect. Receivables. Excessive gray fabric inventory has accumulated a large amount of funds for the company, while difficult-to-collect receivables have made the money that could have been received “visible and intangible”, and the two together have greatly reduced the flow of weaving companies. funds.
Generally speaking, companies with earlier holidays will face greater financial pressure. This is a vicious cycle, so they are less likely to Spend enough money to purchase raw materials in large quantities at this time.
“Buy up” is no longer popular , wait and see becomes a new choice!
In addition to having no money, some weaving companies with good operating conditions are choosing to wait and see. The market conditions this year are not as good as expected, and common experiences from previous years such as “buy up and not down” have lost their effectiveness this year.
In fact, for most weaving companies, the stocking of raw materials at the end of the year has been gradually carried out in the past month. By now, It’s basically coming to an end.
According to this year’s market situation, a large number of weaving companies are unable to stock up on too many raw materials before the year, which leads to the polyester factory’s shortage at the end of the year. Inventory has always been a serious problem. Under the pressure of inventory, it is difficult for the price of polyester filament to rise significantly.
Once favorable conditions strike, the prices of raw materials that have finally risen may fall again. Under such circumstances, maintaining a wait-and-see attitude and maintaining a small inventory of raw materials as planned may be the best option at this stage.
What is the impact of the US-Iran conflict?
Geopolitical issues are related to the game between several countries. No one can accurately predict the final result until the final result is known, so we will look at it in two parts.
If the conflict between the United States and Iran intensifies, international oil prices continue to rise, which will drive up the price of polyester raw materials. For weaving companies, although they need to spend more money to purchase raw materials, they will also need to buy raw materials from another source. On the one hand, the cloth in stock has become more valuable than before. In the short term, it may increase the production and operation pressure of weaving companies and make their capital chain more tense, but in the long term, it is good news.
If the relationship between the United States and Iran ends up with “big thunder but little rain” this time, international oil prices will fall back to their original point, and polyester raw materials will also fall again. For weaving companies, In other words, this is nothing more than a new “Wolf Crying” story. But on the other hand, the right of leading polyester companies to have a say in the price of polyester raw materials has also been undermined in this “Wolf Crying” story. Gradually wear away. Whether the market can improve next year will ultimately depend on whether demand can be boosted.
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