On the morning of January 3, news broke that Baghdad International Airport in the Iraqi capital was attacked by three rockets in the early morning of the 3rd, killing at least eight people. The United States launched attacks on two Iran-linked targets in Baghdad on Friday, U.S. officials confirmed. The conflict between the United States and Iran has escalated again, triggering the first round of sharp rises in crude oil prices in the new year.
Refreshing a new high since September 2019, Brent oil rose 4.44% to a maximum of $69.16 per barrel.
PTA and ethylene glycol futures followed suit
In the early stage, due to the commissioning of Zhejiang Petrochemical’s 40 million tons/year refining and chemical integration project, it gave the PTA market a major negative impact. PTA futures started falling mode. However, this time, boosted by the surge in crude oil, PTA futures stopped falling and rebounded. They quickly rose after the opening and once again stood at 5,000 points. As of the close on the afternoon of the 3rd, the main 2005 contract of Zhengzhou Commercial Exchange PTA futures closed at 5,012 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.97%.
Also as a raw material for polyester, the market price of ethylene glycol has also risen due to the boost of crude oil. As of the afternoon of the 3rd, the main 2005 contract of ethylene glycol futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange closed at 4,655 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.89%.
Spurred by the rise in international oil prices and polyester raw materials, although polyester manufacturers have still focused on stabilizing their recent quotations, the overall production and sales of this market have actually increased.
On the afternoon of the 3rd, the purchasing sentiment of weaving manufacturers was high, and the trading atmosphere of the polyester filament market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas improved significantly. The average production and sales of mainstream manufacturers were around 136%. The output and sales of some better factories are around 120%, 246%, 280%, and 300%.
At the beginning of the new year, polyester raw materials exploded, and production and sales finally increased. After the recent downturn, it has exceeded 100 again. So for the raw material polyester filament, can the price increase again amid the pre-holiday stocking boom?
Yes! Market demand still exists, polyester stock is low
At the end of 2019, the market has been in a quiet stage, but in fact What most textile people hope is that the rise in crude oil prices will drive up PTA and MEG. At the same time, the upstream benefits will be quickly transmitted to the polyester industry. Polyester factory quotations can be raised, and the weaving market can improve.
It can be seen from this production and sales that as soon as the price of polyester raw materials rises, the production and sales of polyester filament will respond enthusiastically, indicating that there is still demand in the market. Some companies that were on the sidelines before are now Just took action. Especially at the critical moment of stocking up before the year, if the price of raw polyester yarn can be increased, it will definitely give weaving manufacturers a “reassurance”. Raw materials have all increased, indicating that the market is showing signs of improvement.
At the same time, according to the statistics of China Silk City Network, the overall inventory of the polyester market is now concentrated at 9-18 days; in terms of specific products, POY inventory is at 3-7 days. FDY inventory is around 7-12 days, while DTY inventory is around 14-19 days. Looking at the whole year, the current polyester inventory can be said to be at a low level during the year. When polyester companies are running out of inventory, they usually adopt price reduction promotion methods. However, polyester is now in low inventory, which provides an opportunity for raw material prices to rise. Some support.
Cannot ! There are too many uncertain factors in cost, and weaving manufacturers have no money to pay
Although crude oil plays a decisive role in the entire industry chain However, crude oil is subject to too many uncertain factors. If it rises today, it may fall tomorrow. Crude oil cannot be used as a weather vane for polyester yarn price increases. At the same time, as the raw materials of polyester filament, PTA and ethylene glycol have had mixed performance recently, especially in the first quarter of this year, there are expectations for new equipment to be put into production, and the pressure on the supply side has increased, which will inevitably have an impact on prices, and it is difficult to The price increase of polyester filament has provided a strong assist.
But regardless of whether polyester prices increase or not, the most important thing is that weaving manufacturers have no money to pay. The problem of payment collection this year is more serious than in previous years. With the holidays around the corner, workers’ wages, water, electricity, rent, etc. are all a huge burden on weaving manufacturers. The only funds they have must be allocated rationally. If there is no money, it doesn’t matter whether prices increase or not. . At the same time, holidays are generally early this year, and dyeing factories basically have holidays around the 10th. Dyeing factories can no longer ship goods before the year, and weaving manufacturers can no longer accept orders, and raw materials have no confidence to increase prices.
In the editor’s opinion, whether the price of raw materials will increase or not depends on many factors, but the most important thing is the market situation and the demand of downstream weaving manufacturers. . The demand is strong. Even if the raw materials have gone up, they will still buy them after complaining a few times. However, the demand has shrunk, and even if the raw materials are reduced in price and promoted, with the mentality of buying up prices rather than buying down prices, weaving manufacturers will still buy them if they go down again.Won’t buy it. After all, demand is the boss!
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