On the 11th, the trading atmosphere of the polyester filament market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas improved, and some manufacturers concentrated on increasing their sales; according to statistics, the production and sales of mainstream polyester factories increased significantly by 160%-180 %, with some higher production and sales reaching 360% and 400%.
In terms of price, on the 12th, polyester yarn from a large factory in Tongxiang increased by 100-200 yuan/ton, and a large factory in Jiangsu also increased by 100 yuan/ton, which is mainstream. The overall quotation increase of manufacturers’ polyester yarns is 50-200 yuan/ton.
The long-awaited price increase of polyester filament has finally come. What is the reason? How long can this rise last?
With “good timing” and “good location”, it is difficult for polyester prices not to rise
Oil prices rose by 7% in a week, giving polyester raw materials a “boost”
Last week, OPEC and Russia, the major non-OPEC oil producer, reached a new production reduction agreement. Affected by this, international oil prices rose sharply last week, with a weekly increase of more than 7%.
Driven by international oil prices, downstream polyester raw materials have also opened a new round of upward trend.
PX, ethylene glycol, PTA and other raw materials for polyester filament have increased to varying degrees. According to data monitoring from China Silk City Network, in the week from November 29 to December 6, PTA’s internal market rose by 20 yuan/ton, PX’s external market rose by $15/ton, and ethylene glycol rose by 58 yuan/ton. Ton.
The rise in the price of polyester raw materials has given strong support to the cost of polyester filament.
Although entering this week, with the reduction of crude oil production After the popularity has passed, international oil prices have slightly corrected, and PTA and ethylene glycol have also gone up and down, presenting a polarized situation. But overall, the wave of market conditions brought about by the crude oil production reduction agreement has given polyester prices a chance to rise. Very good reason.
The market is picking up, and the last wave of stocking up this year is “just needed” Here it comes
If the agreement to reduce crude oil production was reached at the right time, then the habit of weaving companies stocking up on raw materials before the Chinese New Year was due to the right location. .
Stocking up goods at the end of the year is a “routine operation” for weaving companies every year. For weaving companies, stocking up at the end of the year can not only withstand the start of the second year The risk of polyester filament price increases can become more manageable when production resumes at the beginning of next year.
It can also be seen from the historical data monitored by China Silk Capital Network that every year when the Chinese New Year is approaching, the inventory of polyester factories will decrease.
But at the same time we can also see from the picture above From 2016 to the present, the average inventory of weaving enterprises has shown a trend of accumulation year by year, which may cause some variables in the market outlook.
Lack of “humanity”, both upstream and downstream of polyester filament Negative
The current prospect of polyester filament is not optimistic. In addition to the inventory problem mentioned above, the cost support of polyester filament and downstream weaving Changes in demand are also a very big problem.
The main raw materials of polyester filament are PTA and MEG. As far as the current situation is concerned, PTA has a greater impact on the price of polyester, but unfortunately However, starting from the second half of this year, the originally “high-spirited” PTA has gradually fallen into a rather embarrassing situation.
In terms of inventory, according to data monitoring from China Silk City Network, the current PTA social inventory is close to 1.3 million tons, close to the high point during the year, and is still at a tired level. In the process of inventory.
In terms of devices, news has recently spread in the market. Taipec’s 1.2 million tons/year PTA project is expected to be put into operation on December 20. Coupled with Hengli’s 2.5 million tons PTA unit expected to be put into operation in the fourth quarter of this year, there is a high probability that PTA, which already has high inventory, will suffer further blow.
In addition, the news currently coming out of the downstream weaving market It is also more negative.
Since June, the inventory problem of gray fabrics has become the biggest problem for weaving enterprises. There are too many inventories, the market is constantly selling goods, and the price and profit of gray fabrics have declined. Cut in half.
For weaving companies, the excessively high inventory of gray fabrics occupies too much of the company’s working capital. These fabrics cannot be sold and cannot be converted into cash. By the end of the year, it will be very difficult. Difficult to get�Enough money to buy raw materials.
In addition, there is also the issue of receivables. Because terminal clothing sales and foreign trade exports have slumped, the receivables situation of the textile industry this year is the worst in recent years. , and it is also a “long-standing problem” for weaving companies to collect receivables during the New Year.
Under the weak support of upstream PTA and the hands of downstream weaving enterprises Under the double disadvantage of insufficient funds, the prospect of polyester filament is really not optimistic.
Boss Bu: The price of raw materials has increased, so we will have an early holiday
In the recent weaving market, the editor has generally heard three voices from weaving companies regarding their views on stocking up at the end of the year:
The first one is that if the production and operation are good this year, they will naturally stock up on raw materials according to their original habits; the second one is that the business situation is not good this year and the capital chain is tight, but they will also stock up on raw materials according to their original habits. Try your best to stock up on raw materials; the third option is that the business situation is also poor, but you are bearish on next year’s market and choose not to stock up on raw materials.
And the closer to the end of the year, the higher the frequency of the third voice is heard. At the beginning of the month, China Silk City Network conducted a survey on stocking up on raw materials at the end of the year. As a result, half of the textile workers chose to reduce the amount of raw materials they stocked.
But judging from what we have learned recently, There is a clear upward trend in the proportion of weaving companies that choose to stock little or no raw materials, and the amount of raw materials stocked by weaving companies at the end of this year has basically been reduced from the past 2-3 months to one month.
The person in charge of a weaving company with 50 looms and pongee inventory reaching 1 million said that all the products produced now are in stock anyway, and the raw materials have increased. The price is low, so it’s time to go on holiday earlier. I believe this is also the sentiment of many cloth bosses.
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