With the arrival of 0:00 on November 12, the 2019 Tmall Double 11 comes to an end. Tmall reached a new high with a single-day turnover of 268.4 billion, breaking last year’s record of 213.5 billion.
Bosideng Tmall flagship store’s omni-channel sales exceeded 10 1 billion, UNIQLO’s historical sales have exceeded 1 billion at the fastest time in history, and sports brands such as Adidas, Nike, Li Ning, Anta and other brands have broken through the records of the past two years.
Sales hit new highs on “Double Eleven” At the same time, the polyester market as a raw material for clothing is plummeting. PTA futures once fell below 4,700 points, reaching a three-year low. What is going on in the current textile market? What role does the polyester industry play in this?
There are many companies that “drink soup” , but there are also “meat-eating” people
At present, there is actually no lack of demand in the end consumer market. For example, the sales of big-name clothing brands such as Uniqlo and Bosideng have remained the same. In the past, records have been broken repeatedly during Double Eleven, and products are still in short supply.
Last week, the editor went to a textile company for research. The company specializes in the production of high-end textile linings and supplies some big-name clothing brands. According to Xu, the person in charge of the company Generally speaking, the overall textile market has declined significantly this year. Peripheral looms have overcapacity, and traditional clothing linings are mainly conventional products, which are among the “hardest hit areas” in the textile market. Mr. Xu said that companies in the lining industry are generally not having a good time this year. The volume and price of various varieties have dropped, and the price of conventional linings has dropped by more than one-third compared with the beginning of the year:
In April this year, the price of 210T polyester taffeta was about 2 yuan/meter, and the price of 190T was about 1.6 yuan/meter. However, after more than half a year of poor market conditions, sales, and low sales, 210T The current price of polyester taffeta is about 1.3 yuan/meter, a decrease of 0.7 yuan/meter, or a decrease of 35%; the current price of 190T polyester taffeta is about 0.9 yuan/meter, a decrease of 0.7 yuan/meter, or a decrease of 43.75%. .
But Mr. Xu said that for the high-end lining market Generally speaking, although product prices have fallen this year, sales have increased instead of falling. Especially after winter, cold-proof clothing fabrics have brought another wave of market demand, and some specific varieties of channel fabrics are even in short supply.
Therefore, in the current textile market, there are many “soup-drinking” companies, and there are also “meat-eating” companies, but relatively speaking, Those who “drink soup” account for the majority.
Raw materials The price is too low and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere
As of 15:00 on November 12, the PTA2001 contract closed with only 4,690 points left.
Since last Friday, the price of PTA, which had already fallen to a low level, has fallen further. In September, I thought that 5,300 points had reached the bottom, and in October, I thought that 5,000 points had reached the lowest point. However, it turns out that the price of PTA “has no lowest point, only lower prices”, breaking through the bottom line again and again, and bringing down the polyester long-term price step by step. The price of silk has refreshed people’s perceptions and also suppressed confidence in the textile market.
This year’s low-end textile market is “not strong”, The sluggish polyester market will bear a big blame.
The falling prices of polyester raw materials have caused the prices of conventional gray fabrics and finished fabrics to continue to fall, making traders and finished product manufacturers unwilling to stock up. In addition, some garments that originally need to be produced and stocked in advance will have lower production costs the later they are produced due to lower cloth prices.
Generally speaking, because the prices of raw materials and cloth continue to fall, the market is full of wait-and-see atmosphere, and actual orders are very few. However, the more wait-and-see the market is, the higher the upstream market sentiment. The lower the demand for raw materials, the lower the price of raw materials, falling into a vicious cycle.
Overcapacity? In fact, the plan cannot keep up with the changes
As of now, it is constantly declining.The current market situation of polyester is generally believed to be caused by “overcapacity”.
Indeed, after entering the fourth quarter of this year, PTA has started a new round of production capacity. In addition, a large amount of production capacity that was previously suspended for maintenance has resumed production. It has brought significant negative effects to the market. However, the editor feels that overcapacity is not the main reason. The more important reason is that polyester manufacturers’ “plans cannot keep up with changes.”
Starting from last year, with the water jet loom Production capacity has been transferred and the weaving end production capacity has been greatly increased. If we follow the “script” of polyester manufacturers, this year should be a year of rapid growth in demand for polyester.
But the reality is often unsatisfactory. Sino-US trade frictions, a cold foreign trade environment and other issues have reduced the demand for terminal clothing. At this time, the rapid growth of water-jet looms Not only did production capacity fail to drive growth in demand for polyester raw materials, but because weaving manufacturers were occupied with their capital chains, it further suppressed cloth prices and became a negative factor.
In general, this year’s market situation is really unexpected. It can only be said that the plan cannot keep up with the changes.
Will it be better or worse next year? ? What do you think?
This year will be the Chinese New Year in two months, and the list that needs to be done is basically done. , in layman’s terms, the market situation is “just like that”.
What will the market be like next year? Some textile bosses have given a pessimistic expectation. Their reason is that the textile industry has a tradition of “three good years and three bad years”, and this year is only the first “bad” year;
But there are also other distribution bosses who have given different views. They believe that this year’s market is caused by a combination of various unfavorable factors and is a special situation. It is unlikely that there will be so many next year. “Yao Mozi”, the market is likely to recover.
What do you think of this?
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