Last week, Xinfengming Dushan’s 2.2 million-ton PTA plant was officially put into production. The plant was originally scheduled to be put into production in the third quarter of this year, but due to The postponement for various reasons, like boots that have not yet hit the ground, triggered a wave of market fluctuations. Now that the device has been put into operation and “the boots have hit the ground”, Hengyi Petrochemical’s refining and chemical project in Brunei has successfully commissioned. What kind of chain reaction has been triggered in the market?
The market crash did not occur, and PTA performed calmly
As one of the most important commodities in the polyester industry chain, the market price of PTA To a large extent, it can represent the situation of the textile market, and it has also attracted the most attention in the industry.
In this year when the overall textile market is sluggish, PTA has also “suffered deeply” and fell into the embarrassing situation of high inventory and low profits. In such a situation Next, the commissioning of new equipment in the fourth quarter is seen as a major negative.
The market once judged that when Xinfengming’s new 2.2 million tons new device was put into production, PTA prices would fall into a downward channel again, but the facts were somewhat unexpected.
Xinfengming’s PTA installation was in October The test run was successful on the 30th, but in the following few days, PTA futures performed relatively calmly.
On October 31, the main 2001 contract of PTA futures rose 6 points from the previous trading day, an increase of 0.12%;
On November 1, the main 2001 contract of PTA futures fell 8 points, or 0.17%, from the previous trading day.
On the evening of November 3rd, Hengyi Petrochemical’s refining and chemical project in Brunei was completed on November 3rd after comprehensive debugging, intermodal transportation and smooth operation. The entire process was streamlined and put into full production, successfully producing gasoline, diesel, aviation kerosene, PX, benzene and other products.
It can be seen that the expected big drop has not come, and the trend of PTA futures is too stable, but why is this?
PTA has fallen in advance, all the bad news
Since mid-October, PTA has started to In a round of downward channel, the main force of PTA futures fell from 5192 points at the opening on October 10 to 4852 points at the closing time on October 21, a drop of 340 points, and the overall decline reached 6.5%.
The main reason for the decline of PTA at that time was the panic in the market caused by the upcoming wave of new PTA equipment being put into production. Therefore, PTA futures have finally stabilized this time, and in a sense, there is a reason why the shortcomings have been exhausted.
Profit was significantly compressed, lack of decline Space
PTA prices fell sharply after July this year, causing PTA profits to be significantly compressed. On October 31, PTA’s profit was only 29 yuan/ton, compared with 1,787 yuan/ton in early July. It can be said that the profit is in the sky and on the ground.
Therefore, it can be said that PTA has reached the point where it can no longer fall. If the market has a slight disturbance, it may even fall into a loss situation. Therefore, it is not that the PTA will not fall this time, but that there is a lack of room for decline to some extent and it cannot continue to fall.
In order to stabilize the market, polyester manufacturers have stepped up maintenance efforts
While PTA prices continue to fall, profits In the face of continuous compression, leading polyester companies have also taken actions to increase maintenance efforts.
Specifically, a 600,000-ton/year PTA unit in East China has recently been overhauled and is expected to restart in November; a 2.2-million-ton/year PTA unit in East China has been It will be inspected on the 26th and is expected to last 12 days; a 2.2 million tons/year PTA unit in East China has reduced its load by 50% and is expected to restart in the near future; another 1.5 million tons unit is planned to be inspected in mid-November; a 1 million tons/year unit in Southwest China The PTA device is temporarily shut down for 1-2 days.
Under such a large maintenance effort, PTA inventory dropped very significantly. In October, PTA social inventory dropped by nearly 200,000 tons.
The benefits continue, and the next PTA Will it rise?
The commissioning of Xinfengming’s 2.2 million tons PTA unit has not Bring about the big drop in the image. On the contrary, there are currently many favorable factors for PTA, which may affect the future trend of PTA.
International oil prices have stopped falling and rebounded
Crude oil is the most upstream raw material in the polyester industry chain. International oil prices can affect the price of PTA to a large extent.
Last Friday, the United States released the latest non-agricultural data, which was unexpectedly better than expected. At the same time, there was good news about international trade relations. Multiple factors superimposed, which made the international oil price Bottoming out. As of Friday’s close, oil prices hit their biggest gain in six weeks, with U.S. oil once soaring nearly 4%, hitting a four-day high of $56.33 per barrel.
The rebound in international oil prices may feed back to PTA to a certain extent.
Good news about Sino-US trade
The United States is China’s third largest textile exporter, and Sino-US trade relations have a huge impact on the development of the textile industry.
On the evening of November 1, Liu He, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, Vice Premier of the State Council, and Chinese leader of the China-US Comprehensive Economic Dialogue, met with U.S. Trade Representative Lighthizer at request , Treasury Secretary Mnuchin called. The two sides had serious and constructive discussions on properly resolving their respective core concerns and reached a principled consensus. The two sides discussed the next step of consultation arrangements.
Recently, good news has frequently come out of Sino-US trade negotiations, and substantial progress may be achieved in the future.
The textile market is partially recovering
In recent interviews and surveys, some cloth bosses said that due to seasonal changes Affected by the epidemic, the market demand for winter fabrics has increased. Recently, the sales of conventional products such as pongee and nylon have increased slightly compared with the previous period. Some companies even said that the price of nylon has even slightly adjusted back compared to before, and the phenomenon of selling goods is relatively large. It had improved before.
In addition, there was news that some dyeing factories have issued price increase notices, and some dyeing factories have canceled their previous price increases even though their dyeing fees have not increased. The preferential activities can be regarded as a disguised price increase.
Overall, at the end of the year, seasonal cyclical changes still drove the sales of conventional products to a certain extent.
Although there are so many positives, we still cannot ignore that the current stable PTA price is based on the early release of bad news and huge maintenance efforts. The fundamental support is still insufficient. The commissioning of Hengyi’s Brunei device will also suppress PX prices to a certain extent and reduce the cost of PTA. Judging from the situation visited, even if the market has picked up slightly recently, most textile people are still not optimistic about the market in the remaining two months of this year.
To sum up, the future PTA may remain stable or even rebound in a short period of time, but in the long run, it is still mostly bearish.
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