In this world, if there is no comparison, there will be no harm!
Today has entered November, and the “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” in the traditional sense have finally passed amid a mixture of expectations and disappointment.
Once upon a time, you thought this year’s Golden Nine and Silver Ten years would be like this:
However, the reality is Like this:
Looking back on September and October of this year, I can only describe it as sad. It was called “the worst period in the textile market”. “A bad year” seems to be “well-deserved”.
The raw materials of gold nine and silver ten
What you imagine:Rising crude oil, polyester filament, PTA, polyester The whole industry chain has a “big carnival”, and all stocks are rising! PTA has skyrocketed, driving the raw material market to skyrocket. While raw material prices are rising, profits are also rising! The craze for price increases comes one after another, and each wave becomes stronger than the last!
Realistic: Raw material prices have fallen to a 3-year low!
Since the beginning of this year, the price of raw materials has been falling. Especially since October, the price of raw materials has not stopped falling and rebounded, but has increased the rate of decline. At present, Raw material prices are close to three-year lows.
Take FDY 50D/24F and POY 150D/144F as examples: The current price of FDY 50D/24F is around 8,400 yuan/ton, which is in sharp contrast to last year’s high of 14,100 yuan/ton. , a drop of more than 40%. The current price of POY 150D/144F is around 7,400 yuan/ton, while the price at the end of August last year was about 12,400 yuan/ton, a drop of 5,000 yuan/ton, and the drop was also over 40%!
Inventory of gold nine and silver ten
What you imagined: Weaving companies are in short supply! The machine is on 24 hours a day! The weaving factory does not take holidays! Work overtime to catch up! Orders are scheduled for next year!
Realistic: The inventory of weaving companies is close to a 2-year high!
“High inventory” has become a frequently used word this year. The large overcapacity has led to high inventories of weaving companies this year. In the off-season, the inventory can be as high as about 42-43 days. . The crazy large-scale migration and release of production capacity has led to serious overcapacity. Conventional products are piling up in the market, and goods are sold at low prices everywhere. This year’s gray fabrics are worthless!
In September and October, the market has picked up slightly, the operating rate of looms has increased, and the inventory of gray fabrics has begun to loosen. However, there are few large orders from weaving manufacturers, and they are all based on small orders. Most of them are single, and it is impossible to consume a large amount of gray cloth inventory for a while. The current inventory is around 37-38 days. Although there has been a decrease, overall, the inventory of gray cloth is still at a high level in the past two years.
Orders for gold nine and silver ten
What you imagined span>：Supply supply is tight! The trader chose to refuse the order because he couldn’t get the cloth! A piece of cloth is hard to find! Orders of hundreds of thousands of meters are coming one after another! Not accepting urgent orders because there was no time to rush the goods! Taking orders 24 hours a day, counting money makes my hands cramp!
Realistic: traders’ big orders Hard to find, mostly small orders!
Although there is no pressure from the inventory of gray cloth in the weaving factory and the pressure from the inventory of raw materials in the raw material factory, traders are not having a hard time this year. Most of the trade Businessmen report that the market situation this year is really bad. Entering September, the market was still “quiet”. Starting from October, the market began to pick up. Some companies said that the order volume increased by about 30% compared with September, but it was still incomparable with the same period last year. At present, most of them are small orders, mainly autumn and winter fabrics, and the quantities are not large.
At the same time, most traders said that it is difficult to do business now. As a purchasing platform between garment merchants and weavers, traders earn the price difference. However, the industry is now too transparent and the market is like this In large countries, clothing manufacturers will even directly find the source of fabrics for cooperation. The life of traders is no longer easy. Moreover, the market competition is fierce, profits are constantly being compressed, and it is difficult to find new customers. There is only one piece of cake. If there are too many people, only the dregs will remain.
The dyeing factory of gold nine and silver ten
What you imagined:Dyeing fees are rising! The dyeing factory exploded! Gray cloth piles up! The delivery time of regular varieties is more than 15 days! complex varietyDelivery time is more than one month! You need to queue up for fabric sampling! The dyeing factory is having a hard time getting urgent goods out!
Realistic: Dyeing costs nothing Price increase trend, delivery cycle shortened to less than 5 days!
We have always said that the textile market situation can be seen from the printing and dyeing ports. Some time ago, the increase in dyeing fees in Zhejiang seemed to boost market confidence. Could it be that the market is getting better? However, after investigation, it was found that this was just an isolated phenomenon in a certain dyeing factory. It was not even ruled out that the price was reduced too much in the off-season, and now the dyeing fee has only increased back to the original dyeing fee. The price increase of dyeing factories in Shengze area has basically happened after the Xiangshui incident at the beginning of the year. This year’s textile market has given dyeing factories no motivation to increase prices. Some dyeing factories even confessed that they were “losing 5,000 a day”!
After entering the Golden Nine and Silver Ten years, the situation in the dyeing factories has improved slightly, but the dyeing fees still have not increased. The dyeing varieties are mainly autumn and winter fabrics, among which T400 and T800 occupy the mainstream. In terms of product delivery time, products can basically be shipped in about 5 days in October. Some dyeing factories said that the shipping cycle in September is around 10 days. In October, the market has weakened and the delivery time has been shortened.
Whether it is true or false, it is still unknown whether the market trend brought about by the “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” in the traditional sense can continue until the end of the year. Regardless of whether you have made a lot of money this year or have empty pockets, it is not easy to survive this year’s market. There are only 2 months left in 2020. I hope that every textile person can wait for their dreams next year. Quotes.
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