Starting from June 18, areas south of the Huaihe River in Jiangsu Province experienced heavy rain from south to north. On the first day of the plum season, they experienced heavy rain.
For polyester filament, it is a blessing in disguise!
In just one month, the polyester filament market has experienced three “high production and sales” markets, and the intervals have been shortened; the polyester inventory accumulated in the early stage has greatly be relieved. Of course, although the price center of gravity failed to rise on a large scale, it also rose slowly in small steps.
1. The production capacity of peripheral looms has expanded, and the demand in the weaving market has increased
This year’s textile market The market is too “bland”, which has given rise to some negative emotions; but economic development must be cyclical, with ups and downs. Looking back on the first half of 2018, the market was also weaker than that of 2017; the textile market was also in a relatively stable state in the first half of this year. The difference is that compared with last year, the off-season was nearly a month earlier. The early arrival of the off-season has thrown the market into chaos.
After in-depth understanding of textile companies, we can actually understand that the market situation is not It is not as pessimistic as the rumors say. Of course, it is true that the market is weak. In the final analysis, the biggest negative factor in the weaving market this year is that the concentrated explosion of inland production capacity has instantly divided up the “cake” that originally belonged to Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai; however, for polyester manufacturers, it has increased market demand to a greater extent. From the perspective of operating rate, the current operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets remains at around 70-90%, which is also a normal level over the years.
2. The supporting texturing equipment has increased, and the Enthusiasm for POY purchasing
In this third wave of high production and sales, it is mainly driven by the strong sales of POY manufacturers. For POY, in addition to the procurement needs of some weaving manufacturers themselves, a large part of the demand comes from texturing manufacturers.
We know that a large part of the weaving production capacity eliminated in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions due to environmental protection factors in the past two years has been transferred to Anhui, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi and other regions. A large number of chemical fiber textile enterprises In the central and western regions, after the development of looms in these areas in the past two years, weaving production capacity has experienced leaps and bounds. As time goes by, the inland textile industry chain has gradually improved, and the corresponding supporting facilities such as texturing have also gradually taken shape. In addition, upstream polyester factories are supporting texturing machines, and downstream companies in Haining warp knitting, Changxing water-jet and other markets are also supporting texturing machines. These have increased the demand for POY market to a great extent.
3. Inventories have returned to a reasonable position, and polyester manufacturers have strengthened their price support.
After several rounds of high production and sales within this month, With the positive stimulation, the early high inventory pressure of polyester manufacturers has been greatly alleviated. Now the market inventory level is almost the lowest since the Spring Festival. According to statistics from the China Silk City Network, the overall inventory of the polyester market has dropped to 11-20 days. In terms of specific products, POY inventory is concentrated at 4-8 days, FDY inventory is around 10-15 days, and DTY inventory is around 10-15 days. It will take about 18-24 days. Recently, polyester inventories have returned to low levels, and due to considerations of their own profitability, polyester manufacturers will inevitably increase their intention to raise prices in the short term.
Four. The upstream raw materials are strongly assisting, and the cost end has boosting power.
Not long ago, the raw material PX surged, and the rally The market price of ester raw material PTA has followed suit, which has provided a strong boost to the polyester filament market from a cost perspective. Last week, with the intensive maintenance of PTA supply side, the relay broke out, which also led to the rise of PTA market, once again assisting the polyester market.
In the recent period, due to equipment maintenance and good news, PTA futures have been running at high levels for several consecutive trading days, and the market trading atmosphere has been quite active. As of the close of the 18th, Zheng The main 1909 contract of PTA futures on the exchange closed at 53,416 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 130 yuan/ton, or 2.46%, compared with the settlement price on the previous trading day. Stimulated by the positive futures outlook, the activity of the PTA spot market has also increased, and the price center has been able to rise.
Although it is inferred based on periodic theory or other factors, polyester manufacturers are The sustainability of production and sales is not strong, and we may encounter “nodes”! However, with the support of various factors, it is expected that the polyester filament market will continue to remain in the comfortable comfort zone with a high probability, and the overall resilience is not weak; there is still uncertainty about whether the specific price can further increase the room for growth, and it still needs to be Wait and see the subsequent demand transmission ability of the polyester market. </p
