The polyester industry chain has been in troubled times recently. After a short period of surprise, it suffered various “critical blows”! On the last trading day of May, international oil prices suddenly suffered a “flash crash”, becoming the worst month for the entire crude oil market since November last year. The plunge in crude oil shocked everyone for a moment, and directly weakened a number of domestic chemical futures products. PTA futures also suffered a “heavy hit”.
Crude oil fell sharply across the board, falling more than 10% during the month 16%, the largest monthly decline in half a year!
On the last trading day of May, news came out that the United States would delay sanctions on Iran’s petrochemical industry, which dampened the already fragile confidence of the market; subsequently, it issued a levy on Mexico. Trump’s tariff threat showed that “no country is safe”, further exacerbating concerns about the global economy and oil demand, and ultimately led to The crude oil market plummeted across the board.
After two consecutive weeks of sharp declines, May became the worst month for the entire crude oil market since November last year. As of May 31, WTI July crude oil futures closed down US$3.09, or 5.46%, at US$53.50/barrel, hitting a new closing low for the front-month contract since February 12. It fell 8.8% last week and fell 16.3% in May. , the first monthly decline in 2019 and the largest single-month decline since November 2018. Brent July crude oil futures closed down $2.38, or 3.56%, at $64.49/barrel on the expiration and delivery day, hitting a new closing low since February 13. The front-month contract fell 11.4% in May; Brent 8 Monthly crude oil futures closed down $3.34, or 5.1%, at $61.99 per ounce.
Chemical products collectively weakened, and domestic crude oil futures plummeted to the limit!
In the current situation of constant international trade disputes and global market crises, the outlook for international oil prices is confusing, and volatility and uncertainty are gradually increasing. Suppressed by this, domestic Oil prices also suffered a sharp setback. It is reported that on June 3, domestic chemical futures collectively weakened, fuel, methanol and other futures fell sharply, and Shanghai crude oil futures even fell to the limit; shortly after the opening of early trading, the main contract of crude oil futures fell 7.01% to close. at 429.6 yuan/barrel.
PTA futures suffered a “heavy hit”, and ethylene glycol fell through thick and thin!
Whether it is suppressed by the flash crash of international oil prices or dragged down by the collective weakness of chemical futures, PTA futures will inevitably be unable to escape the fate of falling. On June 3, PTA futures opened lower, and then continued to run low; among them, the main 1909 contract finally closed at 5,190 yuan/ton, which was a significant drop of 184 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. Reaching 3.42%, setting a price low in recent months.
As a small partner of polyester, the ethylene glycol market and PTA shares the joys and sorrows and falls together. On the 3rd, the ethylene glycol futures also weakened at the opening, and the market continued to fluctuate at a low level, with little sign of recovery; as of the close of the 3rd, the main 1909 contract closed at 4415 yuan/ton, which was the same as the previous day. Compared with one trading day, it dropped sharply by 87 yuan/ton, or 1.92%.
The upstream raw material market was in chaos, and in June On the 3rd, the polyester filament market remained stable for the time being. However, under this wave of “flash crash” in oil prices and “plummet” in PTA, can the polyester filament market, which is already weak in production and sales, increasing inventory, and weak profits, be able to hold on?
In the context of poor global economic expectations and continued fluctuations in financial markets, on the one hand, OPEC continues to reduce production, driving oil prices to strengthen; on the other hand, US shale oil production is rising, global demand is expected to decline, and the strong U.S. dollar etc., hindering oil prices from finding upward space; the energy of the two waxes and wanes, becoming the main force behind the sharp fluctuations in international oil prices this year. Market participants are increasingly worried and are speculating whether the “deep decline” at the end of 2018 will happen again.
For polyesterAs far as the industry chain is concerned, fluctuations in international oil prices always affect the overall market. Coupled with economic data, inventory problems, demand pressure and other factors, can this “green sentiment” easily dissipate? </p
