In the afternoon of April 18, PTA futures began to plummet, once reaching the limit; on the 19th, PTA futures continued to fall, and the main contract closed at 6006 points, a sharp drop of 2.02%!
Under this negative influence, the quotations of polyester filament manufacturers fell back on the 19th, and many actual transactions were negotiated with discounts.
On the 19th,polyester yarn from a major mainstream factory in Tongxiang fell by 100 yuan/ton; another factory in Tongxiang fell by 100 yuan/ton; a large factory in Jiangsu Polyester yarn fell by 100-200 yuan/ton; POY of a factory in Taicang fell by an additional 100 yuan/ton; POY of another factory in Taicang fell by 100 yuan/ton; FDY of a factory in Shaoxing fell partially by 50-100 yuan/ton, and the transaction was negotiated; Xiaoshan No. The POY part of the factory fell by 50 yuan/ton; the DTY of a factory in Zhejiang fell by 100 yuan/ton.
On the following weekend and until the 22nd, the quotations of mainstream polyester manufacturers fell further and negotiated preferential measures for transactions.
The plummeting PTA has become the “trigger” for the downward adjustment of polyester filament prices!
Although the PTA futures showed signs of rebound on the 22nd and the spot market also performed relatively strongly, this did not seem to prevent the polyester filament market from falling. pace. In the final analysis, whether it is the demand side, production and sales side, or inventory side, they all have a suppressive effect on the polyester market.
1. The peak season of the weaving market has become the “hopeful” season , stock supercharged!
In the recent period, the fabric market has not been booming in the peak season, the market procurement level has not improved much, and the overall transaction is not as good as the same period last year; in addition, the competition for conventional chemical fiber products in the market is fierce, and manufacturers The order-taking performance is poor, the market sentiment is difficult to recover, and there is a lack of hot-selling products. There are many manufacturers who lower prices in order to ship goods. Recently, new orders in the market are still relatively slow. Some manufacturers said that they have no orders after April. The market inventory continues to rise. The inventory of gray fabrics in Shengze area is currently around 36-37 days, which is more than 10 days higher than the same period last year.
For example, the imitation silk series, as the flagship product of light and thin fabrics, has been a hot-selling product in the first half of the year. This year, regular products have a neutral market performance, and individual varieties have been sold. Slowly, manufacturers have lowered their quotations in order to ship goods. Conventional chiffon, tangled hemp, and smooth crepe all performed mediocrely, with prices falling by 0.05-0.10 yuan/meter. Early hot-selling products such as matte cracked cards and SPH tangled hemp have become less popular. The price has dropped, and the manufacturer said there is no need to queue up to wait for goods. The supply of other conventional products such as polyester taffeta, pongee, and nylon has exceeded demand, resulting in poor market performance and a decline in both volume and price.
2. The demand for raw material procurement has weakened, and production and sales have been weak!
As the “gold, three, and silver” small peak seasons in the downstream weaving market have become the “hopeful” season, market orders are in short supply, and manufacturers’ inventory pressure is rising, which has led to downstream Weaving manufacturers’ demand for raw material procurement has weakened. In the recent period, the production and sales performance of mainstream manufacturers in the polyester market has been unsatisfactory, and the overall production and sales have been relatively flat. Except for the impact of the PX explosion on the 8th, which has driven up market buying sentiment, production and sales once surged to 320%, and some higher factories surged. to around 400%-500%. In recent months, there has been a clear lack of follow-up on the production and sales of the polyester market. The average production and sales of mainstream manufacturers are mostly around 50-80%. The production and sales of some better manufacturers are only around 90%-100%. It is rare for production and sales to exceed 100%. POY production and sales are relatively good.
3. The inventory of polyester manufacturers is declining slowly, and there is still a year-on-year gap!
Since the Spring Festival, polyester manufacturers have been operating at a high level; according to statistics, the current average load of the polyester market is concentrated around 91.5%. Affected by the production and sales of polyester market, the inventory of polyester filament market has declined relatively slowly in the past two months after the Spring Festival. According to statistics from the China Silk City Network, the overall inventory of the polyester market is now concentrated in 14-22 days; in terms of specific products, POY inventory is concentrated in 5-10 days, FDY inventory is around 11-16 days, and DTY inventory is around 11-16 days. It will take about 22-28 days.
Although the overall inventory level of the polyester market is not high in the recent stage, the gap is still large year-on-year. Judging from the data, the overall polyester market inventory has dropped to around 5-16 days in the same period last year; POY inventory is concentrated at 4-9 days, FDY inventory has been reduced to around 3-8 days, and DTY inventory has dropped to 14-22 days about. In contrast, FDY and DTY manufacturers are now under greater inventory pressure, and the decline in inventory has significantly slowed down compared to last year.
However, for polyester manufacturers, the market is not that difficult , although production and sales are weak and inventory declines slowly, there is still strong demand in the downstream weaving market.According to incomplete statistics, the operating rate of water-jet and air-jet manufacturers on the market is basically concentrated at around 80-90%, while warp knitting and circular knitting machines The market start-up is around 70% to 80%; there must be an urgent need to purchase these raw materials.
In addition, what is fortunate is thatthe profit performance of polyester manufacturers is trending Well, the profit margin of each product is at a high level during the year;Among them, FDY has the best profit margin, and POY has the largest profit growth in the recent stage. According to data calculation from China Silk City Network, the current profit margin of FDY150D is 830 yuan/ton, year-on-year It increased by 262 yuan/ton; POY profit growth was relatively large, with the profit per ton rising sharply to around 716 yuan, and the year-on-year increase was also relatively obvious; the same was true for DTY150D. Compared with the previous month, the profit margin had increased, rising to 550 yuan. /ton.
There are market rumors that the United States may announce the end of import exemptions and completely cut off Iran’s crude oil exports. At that time, crude oil prices may continue to rise sharply; and the PTA device is about to usher in a new round of During the maintenance peak, tight supply may make PTA prices easy to rise but difficult to fall. Therefore, some market participants believe that polyester filament may close the downward channel and usher in a purchasing peak!</p
