Recently, the final season of Game of Thrones has been launched. Winter has arrived, and Dragon Mother and Jon Snow fell in love, which caused a lot of discussion. At the same time, the “Game of Thrones” in the polyester industry chain is also in full swing. Who can have the last laugh?
PX: Dropped 50% in one month, falling from the Iron Throne of Profits
As domestic PX projects are put into production one after another, PX, once known as the “profit king” of the polyester industry chain, cannot escape the fate of falling from the altar.
After 2000, there have been four rounds of global PX production peaks. The peaks correspond to 2003, 2007, 2009, and 2013. In 2019, the fifth round of PX production peaks has arrived. .
On March 24, Hengli Refining and Chemical’s first PX unit produced qualified products. The unit has a production capacity of 2.25 million tons. The current load is maintained at 50-60%. In the future There are plans to continue increasing the load. In addition to Hengli, many private refining and chemical giants’ PX units are also under intensive construction.
According to data monitoring from China Silk City Network, since March, the price difference between PX and naphtha has been at At the same time, PX’s profit (gross profit) also showed a sharp downward trend, with a drop of nearly 50%.
Leading the crazy market, but it is a return to the past!
PX’s profits have fallen sharply, which makes people feel sad.
From July to mid-October last year, the entire polyester industry chain began a wave of crazy rising prices. PX, PTA, and polyester filament have all surged in a short period of time. Downstream weaving companies have complained, which directly led to the disappearance of the traditional peak season of September and October last year.
The initiator of this crazy market is PX. It is precisely because of its sharp rise in a short period of time that it eventually caused the entire polyester industry chain to go crazy. During that time, PX’s profits also began to skyrocket.
(PX profit from July to October 2018)
From the extreme speed of the polyester industry chain last year Less than a year after the surge, PX’s profits began to decline rapidly. I originally thought this was the profit hegemon’s declaration of hegemony, but I didn’t expect it to be its final moment of glory.
Just like King Robert in Game of Thrones, he originally wanted to rectify the government and start a big fight, but unexpectedly he got his lunch early, leaving only the Iron Throne to cause competition among all parties. .
(King Robert took the lunch and left the Iron Throne to cause competition among all parties)
Who can sit on the Iron Throne?
After PX falls from the altar, the profits of the polyester industry chain are bound to be redistributed. Who can get the biggest piece of cake and sit on the iron throne of profits? Is it a PTA with many giants? Is it polyester filament where production capacity is gradually concentrated? Or even the weaving that has entered a weak cycle?
(Who will finally sit on the iron throne of profits)
PTA takes the lead
Unlike the rapid increase in PX production capacity, PTA has basically been in a state of stagnant new production capacity in the past three years. Therefore, once the downstream weaving market situation improves slightly and the demand for polyester yarn begins to grow, the existing production capacity of PTA will become tight.
In fact, PTA has already taken part of the profits after the PX price collapse. Judging from the trend of PTA futures, after the weakness in the second half of last year, the price of PTA futures began to rebound significantly in January this year. Although the price of PTA continued to fluctuate afterwards, the price of PTA raw material PX was in a downward range, so PTA’s profits still increased.
Just like Cersei in King’s Landing, she immediately accepted the legacy left by the previous king and already had the upper hand in this game of power.
(PTA1905 futures trend chart)
But at the same time, we must also see that, on the one hand, this year’s terminal The weaving market conditions are relatively tepid compared to previous years, and the operating rate of looms is not as good as the same period in previous years, which has had a certain impact on the demand for upstream PTA. On the other hand, because the PTA industry made good profits last year, the futureIn the next few years, multiple PTA devices such as Xinfengming and Yizheng Chemical Fiber will be put into production one after another. PTA’s production capacity will be increased again, and its profits will inevitably be affected.
(Cersei: She has the upper hand, but there are many hidden dangers behind it)
Polyester filament with strong stamina
In recent years, as the production capacity of polyester filament has become more and more concentrated in a few leading companies, polyester leading companies have placed great emphasis on polyester products. pricing power is getting stronger and stronger. It can be said that in the polyester industry chain, polyester filament is synonymous with making money.
Even though last year was affected by the crazy market and was suppressed by international oil prices at the end of the year, which made the process of destocking at the end of the year slightly difficult, for the polyester big guys To put it bluntly, these can only be regarded as minor setbacks, far from reaching the level of breaking one’s muscles and bones.
Besides, after the beginning of this year, the inventory of polyester is still slowly declining.
In the next few years, it is foreseeable that with the further concentration of polyester production capacity, polyester The pricing power of leading companies over polyester filament will surely be further enhanced.
Just like the Dragon Mother in Game of Thrones, others may have a very powerful army or be very rich, but she has the ultimate weapon that is invincible and invincible – —Dragon has an absolute advantage innately.
(Dragon Mother: With a dragon in your hand, you will have an absolute advantage innately)
Terminal weaving to survive in the cracks
In comparison, the days of terminal weaving seem much miserable. From July to October last year, in the polyester industry chain, whether it was PX, PTA or polyester filament, there was a carnival, and only the terminal weaving companies were under pressure alone. Faced with rising raw material prices, weaving companies are neither raising prices nor not. Profits have suddenly shrunk a lot.
The overdraft market eventually led to the disappearance of the traditional peak season of last year’s “Golden Nine and Silver Ten”. Since the beginning of this year, after a brief recovery at the end of the year, the market situation in March and April has also been much worse than in previous years.
Winter has arrived! Winter is coming! This classic line from Game of Thrones could not be more appropriate to describe the current weaving market.
(Winterishere!)
In Game of Thrones, Snow, King of the North, not only Facing the challenges of the southern forces, more importantly, there is also the deadly threat of the White Walkers in the north.
The current weaving market is not like this. Not only do we have to consider future changes in raw material prices, but more importantly, with the successive commissioning of weaving production capacity in northern Jiangsu, Anhui, Hubei and other places, conventional gray fabrics The production capacity of fabrics has increased significantly, and coupled with the sluggish performance of the clothing retail end, weaving companies can now be said to be struggling to survive.
For weaving companies, it is not their turn to worry about who will ultimately win the Iron Throne. Being able to survive the coming winter is the most important thing.
(Snow: How to survive the coming winter is the most important thing)</p
