PTA has reached the daily limit! The news that PTA closed its trading limit on the 21st once again made the entire polyester market boil!
On the 21st, PX rose sharply by US$23 to US$1,073/ton;
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PTA futures rose 306 yuan to 6,426 yuan/ton; spot prices rose 195 yuan to 6,520 yuan/ton;
Ethylene glycol futures rose 122 yuan to 5,273 yuan/ton; spot prices rose 130 yuan to 5,120 yuan/ton.
Driven by raw materials, polyester filament has experienced a long-awaited general rise in prices, with various specifications of polyester filament generally rising by 100-200 yuan/ton.
On the 22nd, PTA continued to move forward excitedly, and the PTA futures 1906 contract opened higher It closed at 6,420 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.13%.
Ethylene glycol futures actively followed up, with the 1906 contract running strongly and closing at 5,277 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.29%.
Following the increase in both volume and price on the previous day, the price of polyester yarn increased strongly on the 22nd, with various specifications in the market rising again by 100-200 yuan/ton.
PTA has been in a wait-and-see mode since January. Recently, crude oil, macroeconomics, and demand have all shown a phased improvement. PTA’s desire to speculate has once again stirred up.
1. Crude oil supply and demand have effectively improved, and cost support has been strong
Supported by the OPEC+ countries’ joint production reduction agreement, the easing of Sino-US trade tensions, the decline in crude oil inventories, and the continued reduction in the number of US drilling rigs, the main contract of WTI crude oil futures Since hitting a new intraday low of $42.36/barrel on December 24, 2018, it has rebounded continuously. On the 21st of this month, the intraday high reached $54.24/barrel, with a cumulative increase of 28%. Crude oil prices have rebounded strongly and continued to release good signals. The rising momentum of PX since January cannot be underestimated. As of the 21st, the price of PX has climbed to a new high of US$1,073/ton.
2. Sino-U.S. Trade Relations There are new developments and market confidence has rebounded
The Sino-US trade dispute that has lasted for nearly a year has ushered in a “new atmosphere” at the beginning of the new year. Following the deputy ministerial level consultations held in Beijing last week, Chinese Vice Premier Liu He plans to go to the United States for higher-level consultations at the end of this month. In addition, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 21st showed that my country’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2018 was 90,030.9 billion yuan, exceeding the 90 trillion yuan mark for the first time. Calculated at comparable prices, GDP increased by 6.6% over the previous year, achieving the expected development goal of around 6.5%. The prospects for Sino-US trade negotiations are optimistic, China’s policies are positive, and market confidence has been effectively restored. The concentrated display of macroeconomic benefits has also boosted the trend of domestic chemical futures and related stocks. There was ample liquidity in the domestic financial market before the Spring Festival. Currently, the bullish power of funds in the PTA futures market is still strong, and PTA is full of evil spirits.
3. PTA device emergencies, polyester factory maintenance efforts Less than expected, it becomes an effective tool for speculation
The crazy financial speculation is naturally inseparable from solid fundamental support. In December, under the combined pressure of the sharp drop in crude oil and weak demand, polyester manufacturers made concerted efforts to significantly reduce burdens and reduce production for maintenance. However, after entering January, the price of crude oil rose sharply. Stimulated by the demand for stocking before the year, downstream companies concentrated on purchasing raw materials. The inventory pressure of polyester manufacturers, which had always been high in inventory, was effectively relieved, and the original equipment maintenance plans were postponed or cancelled. , the polyester maintenance situation was not as good as expected, the demand side was positive and supported, and PTA performed strongly.
In addition, two units in Ningbo were unexpectedly shut down recently. Although they were quickly restarted, they greatly boosted market sentiment. Although the market had previously expected that PTA would enter a situation of oversupply, in fact, the restart of the Yisheng, Yangzi, and Pengwei units was delayed, and PTA output was not as high as expected in January. The supply and demand side of PTA is acceptable, which is bullish for the current market conditions of PTA.
The current downstream weaving market has entered the Spring Festival half-empty period. Although the current polyester market production and sales can still be maintained, the Spring Festival holiday is just around the corner, and the rigid demand support is very limited. The current rebound in production and sales is mostly due to the stocking of raw materials before the weaving year. Demand is about to enter a phased window period. How long can the exciting PTA market last? Be wary of sharp drops after a sharp rise.
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