On the first trading day after Christmas (December 26), international oil prices experienced a retaliatory rebound.
As of the close of the day, the price of light crude oil futures for delivery in February 2019 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by US$3.69 to close at US$46.22 per barrel, an increase of 8.68%. The price of London Brent crude oil futures for delivery in February 2019 rose $4.00 to close at $54.47 per barrel, an increase of 7.93%.
The strong rebound in international oil prices has injected a shot in the arm into the originally sluggish polyester market.
PTA: Low inventory, ready to rise
Judging from the current situation, the market The PTA on the Internet is still in a low inventory situation. According to statistics from China Silk City Network, the social inventory of PTA has been at a low position recently. It can also be seen from the previous trend of PTA that there is actually a lot of room for growth in PTA, but it was only dragged down by the early oil prices. But even if international oil prices fell so sharply in the early stage, the extent of PTA’s final decline was still limited.
But we also have to see that the quotation of PX in the night trading on December 26 fell from US$985/ton before Christmas to US$947/ton , fell by US$38/ton, which was the direct reason why PTA futures did not rise significantly on the 27th.
After more than three months of silence since September this year, PTA is likely to continue the strong rebound in international oil prices, exert the power of its low inventory, and once again sell before the New Year this year. Set off a rising tide.
Polyester filament: Oil prices rise, east wind has arrived
Driven by international oil prices, the price of polyester filament stopped falling on December 27 After rebounding, various polyester products generally increased by 50-200 yuan/ton.
After September, the situation of polyester filament is similar to that of PTA, and both appear to be relatively weak. But unlike PTA, the current inventory of PTA is very low, while the inventory of polyester filament has reached a high point during the year.
Originally, in December, before international oil prices began to fall, the price of polyester filament was rising steadily. Coupled with the production reduction of polyester manufacturers, the progress of destocking was relatively smooth. sequence.
However, as international oil prices plummeted, this orderly destocking rhythm was suddenly disrupted. The production and sales of polyester have plummeted, rarely exceeding 60%.
But as the end of the year approaches, downstream weaving companies need to stock up at the end of the year, and polyester companies need to destock. The only problem is that polyester prices have been falling due to crude oil. The entire downstream market can be described as “everything is ready except for oil prices.”
In terms of production and sales, on December 27, the production and sales of polyester reached 250%, a very significant increase compared with before.
Is the last wave of this year’s polyester weaving market coming?
The current decline in international oil prices is ultimately driven by the rebound in U.S. stocks. “The biggest negative for international oil prices” in 2018. Trump said at the White House on December 25 that the Federal Reserve raised borrowing costs because “the economy is doing very well,” adding that U.S. companies have “record numbers,” which is a “huge buying opportunity.”
It can be said that in just one Christmas holiday, Trump has completed a major transformation from “negative” to “positive”. If Trump’s past character is judged, in the short term, he should not It will speak out to suppress oil prices. Even if international oil prices may fluctuate in the future, they can basically remain stable.
For polyester companies, even if the international oil price fluctuates again in the future, as long as it does not fall sharply, the future price of polyester filament is unlikely. fell. At present, polyester companies are struggling with the huge amount of polyester yarn in stock, and it is unlikely that they will reduce prices to suppress market enthusiasm.
For weaving companies, if they want to stock up on raw materials, as long as there are no major negative events before the year, now may be the last good opportunity this year. According to the price statistics of China Silk City Network, the current price of polyester filament is basically the same as that of the same period last year, and is therefore within the acceptable range of enterprises.
Editor’s note: At the end of yesterday’s article, the author wrote that oil prices cannot fall forever, and there will always be a day when they rebound. I never expected that the price of oil would rebound. It was so intense. In order for polyester companies to sell yarn smoothly, the price of polyester yarn will most likely only rise, not fall. Of course, if oil prices plummet again, pretend I didn’t say anything. </p
