Introduction: Since the fourth quarter, crude oil prices have continued to fall. Recently, the crude oil market has suffered another sudden massacre. On the 17th, both US and Burundi oil prices fell below important levels. As of today, U.S. oil fell to 49.88 yuan/barrel; Brent closed at 59.61 yuan/barrel. On the 18th, the crude oil market collapsed again, with U.S. oil closing down 7.89% at $46.24 per barrel, the largest single-day drop in more than three years and setting a new low since August 2017. Brent oil closed down 6.13% at US$56/barrel, a new low since October 2017; U.S. oil WTI plummeted by nearly US$5/barrel in just two trading days, a drop of 10%. The crude oil market suffered an avalanche, which caused a huge cost and confidence impact on the downstream market, and the downstream polyester market was caught off guard.
There are complete eggs under the nest, and the polyester market suffered an air raid
The plunge in crude oil prices has once again disrupted the price guarantee plan of the polyester market. Since December, all the bad news in the polyester market has been exhausted, and market confidence has been restored. Coupled with the tight PTA spot supply and the expectation of centralized maintenance of equipment in the polyester market, the market atmosphere has unknowingly heated up. Market production and sales have increased, and the inventory pressure of polyester manufacturers has also increased. Effective relief. With the help of favorable conditions, the prices of PX, PTA and polyester filament have steadily increased.
After three months of long decline, the market originally thought it would be able to take a breather and relax in December, but the crude oil market continued to suffer heavy losses. pound bomb. Under the strong bombardment of crude oil, the polyester industry chain suffered air strikes.
On October 18, Asian PX fell by US$10.5 to US$1,038.33/ton FOB South Korea and US$1,058.33/ton CFR China.
On October 19, the PTA futures 1905 contract closed weakly. Supported by the shortage of spot goods, the futures closed slightly down by 48 yuan/ tons, a decrease of 0.77%.
On October 19, the quotations of polyester factories in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets were in a stalemate, with individual factories lowering their prices slightly. Under the pressure of crude oil, market production and sales once again fell into a weak pattern. On the 18th and 19th, the purchasing mentality of the downstream market was cautious, and the overall market production and sales were around 50%.
Demand is a flaw, and gathering under high pressure The ester market has been repeatedly hit by crude oil
Since the second half of the year, downstream demand has become the main driver of the polyester market. As a matter of concern, orders in the woven fabric market have decreased, and the start-up of some industrial clusters has dropped significantly. Polyester manufacturers have not been able to ship smoothly due to poor demand, and inventory has accumulated to the peak during the year. It is self-evident that polyester manufacturers are under inventory and financial pressure. After entering December, although downstream production and sales have heated up due to the positive boost, after all, the market order holdings in December are difficult to compare with the traditional peak season of Gold, Nine and Silver. It is difficult to have big expectations for downstream demand for raw materials, and polyester manufacturers are under inventory pressure. It is still relatively large, which is also an important reason why the polyester market reported intensive maintenance in the middle of the month.
The supply and demand side is weak, and inventory pressure in the polyester market and weaving market is still there. According to the data monitoring of sample companies by China Silk City Network, the gray fabric weaving inventory in Shengze area was 35-36 days on December 18, and there was selling behavior in some unsalable products in the market. Inventories in the weaving market continue to rise, and crude oil has hit new lows. The downstream weaving market is more cautious. Under the pressure of demand, the benefits that could have boosted the market, such as polyester production cuts and PTA spot shortages, have once again failed. Crude oil continues to plummet, and there is a feeling that it is about to hit the bottom. Costs are collapsing, and the polyester market is walking on thin ice.
Under the imbalance of supply and demand, the fortune of the polyester market has also become bad. Last year, prices rose as soon as a meeting was held, but in the second half of this year, the polyester market suffered a sharp decline as soon as the crude oil production cut was announced. Now there is less than half a month left in 2019. Crude oil shorts have struck again, and the market benefits are still very limited. The polyester filament market will once again fall into a weak market with both volume and price falling due to the collapse of cost. ? Or will the polyester market intensify and implement production reduction plans to reverse the current unfavorable market situation of low profits and high inventories? This is still unknown, and time will tell.
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