The textile market experienced ups and downs in 2018. At the end of 2018, many market participants found that from multiple indicators, the textile market was facing a “life and death test.”
The cold winter has arrived, not only the temperature has dropped, but also the enthusiasm of textile people Heart!
On December 9, snow fell in many cities across the country at the same time. On the same day, the Central Meteorological Observatory once again issued a cold wave blue warning, and most parts of the country ushered in a long period of cold weather. Therefore, down jackets, cotton jackets, etc. have become the first choice of the public. This has ushered in the “cold winter” for textile people who were originally waiting for the New Year. Some hope. But what about the facts?
Starting from the third quarter, the entire textile market has experienced an industry boom Declining temperature, poor terminal ordering, rising manufacturer inventories and other “cooling” signals.
As a “barometer” for judging the textile market, the monthly prosperity index of the “Ministry of Commerce China Shengze Chemical Fiber Index” shows that starting from June, the prosperity index began to enter a downward channel and has fallen for 6 consecutive months. In March, it exceeded the expectations of market participants. We can see from the chart below that from 2010 to 2018, the prosperity in the second half of the year has never been expected to decline. The main reasons for this phenomenon are: domestic and foreign brands have made greater efforts to stock up on goods in the first three quarters, resulting in a weak intention to stock up on autumn and winter fabrics, and domestic market demand has shrunk month-on-month; in August and September, the surge in raw material PTA has boosted the The skyrocketing price of polyester filament has dragged down the pricing mechanism of the fabric market; from September to December, raw material prices continued to retreat, falling to the lowest level in recent years, which suppressed the mood for ordering during the peak season. The lack of orders from manufacturers led to poor production enthusiasm and increased elasticity. , warp knitting, circular knitting machines and other start-ups have dropped significantly, and the market atmosphere has also plummeted. It has become a certain fact that the peak season is not prosperous, making the “cold winter” of the textile market this year come earlier and more violently than in previous years.
Mr. Shen, the person in charge of a textile company that produces gallbladder cloth in Wujiang area, said: “There is no way. Although the weather is cold, the market is even colder. Now the downstream clothing business is average and no one dares to stock up on goods, so we can only lower the quotation and sell some inventory to make this year a little easier.” On this day last year, Danbu is obviously the “hot cake” of the market, with price increases, rush for goods, queues… The market situation can be described with a lyric, “You are like a fire in the winter, the blazing orders warm my heart”! But this year, although the market ushered in a small wave of goods sales around Double Eleven, it came and went quickly. The production capacity of gray cloth is relatively large. A water-jet loom can produce about 300 meters a day. That is, a manufacturer with 100 looms has to stock up on 210,000 meters if there is no order in a week. “The price of raw materials has dropped, and the price of gray cloth has also dropped.” , the inventory is much more, that’s all it can do.” Mr. Shen frowned.
It can be seen that the cold winter has not taken away much sorrow from him, and the pain of existence has been difficult to erase. In addition to the Jiangsu region, Zhejiang, Guangzhou, Fujian and other fabric cluster areas also performed mediocrely.
The market in Xiaoshao area continues to be sluggish, and shipments continue to decline slightly. It is said that local trading companies have few new orders, and weaving manufacturers are mainly clearing inventories. Dying factories There are not many orders, and the delivery time is very fast; there are not many orders in Hebei. Although there are many inquiries and quotations, the order placement is relatively slow. Medium and low-count yarn card products are the main transaction types, and there is still room for price reduction. The dyeing factories are obviously dissatisfied with the orders. , the delivery time is about one week.
“Previously we predicted that the market in the second half of this year would be the same as last year, at least not as obvious a decline. However, the actual situation is disappointing. Although the overall sales volume for the whole year is similar to last year, But the market situation in the second half of the year is too bad.” Mr. Dai, the owner of a woolen textile company in Changxing District, said, “I am afraid that the market will be even worse next year!”
Will it be worse next year? ! Be careful that these “time bombs” will “trap” you!
As the saying goes, “It takes less than a day to freeze three feet.” The market situation in the second half of the year makes textile people feel even more miserable. Now that OPEC has “officially announced” production cuts, the chemical fiber market has basically bottomed out. Fabric export orders have been urgently issued before the Spring Festival. Coupled with the arrival of cold air, the prediction of cold winter may come true, which may be beneficial to the fabric market in 2019. support, but in the future, companies still have to beware of several untimely “bombs”:
1. The Sino-US trade situation has been temporarily suspended. Although it has boosted the foreign trade market, 25 % tariff increase is only a postponement of negotiations, not completely cancelled. We still need to pay attention to the negotiations in the next 90 days and whether the 10% tariff will be increased to 25%;
2 , foreign looms have been launched one after another, creating a greater impact on conventional chemical fiber products. Although the market will weaken in the second half of the year, many textile bosses lament that it is difficult to set up factories in other places, but it is impossible to invest in factories and equipment in the early stage.If it is abandoned, market production capacity will increase little by little, which will have a greater impact on the market;
3. Crude oil, as the upstream of the chemical fiber industry chain, is also the most uncertain. Products involve too many geopolitical, global economic and other factors, and prices tend to fluctuate greatly. This also affects the price of bulk textile raw materials such as polyester filament. Therefore, you must be cautious when stocking up on the last wave of raw materials before the Spring Festival. If you are not careful, you may become The most practical “takeover”;
4. The textile and garment industry has returned from the commodity era to the product era, and the cost performance of fabric products will enter an era of extremes. Although small profits but quick turnover This has been the correct idea for sales over the years, but making products bigger and stronger has become a “sharp tool” for many companies to receive orders. While you are standing still, others are already running ahead.
There are less than 20 days left in 2018,
2019 is approaching you quickly.
The future is here, are you ready?
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