PTA futures have been in constant fluctuation recently. Taking the main PTA futures 1901 as an example, PTA futures have been hovering around 6800 points since mid-October. In the short term, the price of PTA futures has reached a basically stable state.
The price fell by more than 2,700 in two months, polyester long The price of polyester filament continues to fall
Unlike the volatile market situation of PTA, the price of polyester filament has been falling recently, with the prices of polyester POY150D and polyester FDY150D falling below 10,000 yuan. As can be seen from the table below, by November 5, conventional polyester filament had dropped by more than 2,200 yuan/ton from the highest point two months ago, and POY, which had the largest decline, even dropped by 2,760 yuan/ton, but the current price is lower than The same period last year was still high, but the range has been shortened to less than 1,000 yuan. Considering that the current polyester filament is in a downward channel, while the same period last year was in an upward channel due to the hot market, it can be expected that the price of polyester filament will be the same as that in the same period last year in the short term.
PTA market is crazy, polyester filament back Pot
The primary reason for the decline of polyester filament is naturally due to PTA. It was the skyrocketing price of PTA in July and August that brought the price of polyester filament to a historical high in early September. However, as downstream complaints abounded and the increase in raw materials could not be digested, PTA production and sales began to decline. At the beginning, PTA could also improve the price through equipment maintenance, reducing operating load, etc., but this was only a temporary solution rather than a permanent solution. After a period of time, PTA finally fell. The spot price dropped from the highest level of around 9,200 yuan to 6,950 yuan on November 5, a drop of more than 2,000 yuan.
In the wave of price increases, the polyester manufacturers that have the closest relationship with the weaving market have been the most criticized by public opinion, and several joint production suspension proposals have also been issued. Basically, they will target several leading chemical fiber companies, which can be said to have taken the blame for PTA’s crazy market. As soon as the price of PTA fell, the price of polyester filament also began to collapse.
Production and sales are sluggish, and polyester manufacturers want to reduce prices to reduce inventory
However, PTA has fallen almost completely recently. Why is polyester filament still Does it keep falling? This has something to do with recent production and sales.
After entering October, except for the replenishment a few days after the October festival and the one-day production and sales trip at the end of October due to corporate invoicing and other reasons, the entire October The production and sales of polyester filament are relatively bleak. When it’s good, it’s 70% to 80%, when it’s bad, it’s 50% to 60%. There is no way, the price of raw materials is too high, and the operating rate of downstream manufacturers cannot increase. In the summer, weaving companies thought that if they weaved more cloth, they would be able to sell it during the traditional peak textile season of September and October. As a result, the market conditions in September and October were not very good due to the high price of raw materials.
It should be the traditional peak season for textiles. Production and sales are sluggish, which has caused the inventory of polyester filament to rise, even exceeding the high point at the beginning of the year. You know, weaving manufacturers are on holiday during the Chinese New Year. Only the equipment of polyester manufacturers will not stop because the switching cost is too high. Therefore, polyester inventory will be very high every year during the Chinese New Year. But the current polyester inventory is higher than at the beginning of the year, which is an exaggeration.
Needless to say, the benefits of low inventory are that at least it will be flexible in terms of pricing. It will go up if it wants to go up, and it will go down if it wants to go down. It is very willful. Once the inventory is high, you will be constrained in terms of pricing in order to ship goods, and you will appear very passive. Therefore, many times, in order to ensure smooth production and sales, manufacturers would rather lose a little money. The current downstream market is bearish on the price of polyester filament. In order to ship goods, polyester manufacturers have caused the price of polyester filament to fall all the way.
Dyeing and printing coatings are limited to stop production, polyester filament prices continue to rise Suppressed
The recent production restrictions and suspensions of printing and dyeing coating companies will also suppress the price of polyester yarn to a certain extent.
In winter, the demand for cold-proof clothing and functional fabrics will be greater, and most of these fabrics need to be coated. Although it is estimated that the suspension of production will last until around the 11th, this is only an estimated time, and the actual end time of the suspension cannot yet be completely determined.
The production capacity of printing and dyeing finishing is now limited, which will definitely affect the delivery time of some orders. This year, due to market problems, the market’s enthusiasm for taking orders has not been high. Now the risk of taking orders has increased, which will inevitably aggravate the market’s wait-and-see mood.
In addition, because the market situation in September and October this year was not as expected, resulting in��Weaving manufacturers basically have some inventory. Once the order-taking situation in the market is affected again, the production enthusiasm of weaving enterprises will also be hit, and the operating rate of looms may also be affected.
Editor’s Note
In the short term, the decline in polyester filament seems to have no stopping momentum. But from a profit perspective, the current polyester filament shipments are already low-profit. If the price of PTA continues to be stable, it can be expected that the downward trend in the price of polyester filament is likely to stop in the short term in the future and resume. Towards stability.
<br
