The international oil price in October was like riding a “roller coaster”. It was still rising sharply at the beginning of the month, and public opinion was still worried about whether it would exceed 100 US dollars. The crazy diving started again.
Crude oil: flying down three thousand feet
Affected by investors’ risk aversion and concerns about OPEC increasing production, international oil prices fell sharply on the 23rd.
As of the close of the day, the price of light crude oil futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by US$2.93 to close at US$66.43 per barrel, a decrease of 4.22%. The price of London Brent crude oil futures for December delivery fell by US$3.39 to close at US$76.44 per barrel, a decrease of 4.25%.
Nowadays, the situation in the Middle East is complicated and confusing. First, Iran, a major oil-producing country, was sanctioned by the United States, causing oil prices to soar in a short period of time. Recently, oil prices have soared. The murder of a Saudi journalist has attracted widespread attention from international public opinion, and the subsequent outcome is unclear. After the case occurred, Saudi Arabia also stated that if Saudi Arabia was sanctioned by the United States, international oil prices might rise to US$200. As a result, they began to dive again.
What will happen to oil prices next? It is better for you to wait and wait until the situation becomes clearer.
PTA: Running to the sea and never returning
In the eight trading days from October 11 to October 22, 2018, the main force of PTA futures The K-line on the contract day has been negative for eight consecutive days, setting a record for the longest consecutive negative trend in the past five years, with a cumulative decline of 8.15%. According to incomplete statistics, the longest consecutive negative streak since the listing of PTA futures is 9 consecutive negative records, which lasted for nine trading days from November 15, 2013 to November 27, 2013, with a cumulative decline of 5.03%.
On October 24, affected by the fall in international oil prices, PTA futures fell again. As of the closing at 15:00 on October 24, PTA’s main contract 1901 finally closed at 6928 points, down 40 points or 0.57% from the previous trading day.
Polyester: Peacock flies southeast, five miles Yi Lian
Now, driven by PTA, the price of polyester filament is also slowly falling. On October 24, the price of polyester filament dropped again by 100 yuan/ Ton. The overall price has dropped by nearly 1,500 yuan/ton from the highest price in late August and early September.
But even if it has dropped so much, for weaving companies, now The price of raw materials is still too expensive. The price of polyester filament this year is 2,300 yuan/ton higher than the same period last year (the price of FDY150D in the same period last year was 8,600 yuan/ton, and the current price is close to 10,900 yuan). The cost of raw materials for one meter of cloth is one-quarter higher. Coupled with the rising rent, water and electricity, printing and dyeing, labor and other expenses year by year, the cost increase of gray cloth fabrics is very exaggerated.
Because the cost has increased too much, the price given by the buyer cannot bring profits to the weaving manufacturer, and the weaving enterprise will Don’t want to take those orders.
Foreign trade orders have a greater impact. After all, the label of Chinese textiles has always been Wumart. Cheap, focusing on cost-effectiveness, even though in the past two years due to supply-side reform, the technical level of enterprises has improved compared with the past, and some enterprises can produce some products with high technical content. But for the entire Chinese textile industry, the brand that focuses on cost-effectiveness is still not torn off. Therefore, foreign businessmen are less accepting of textile price increases.
Boss Bu: I gave birth to you before I gave birth to you. You are born and I am old
Textile, as a traditional industry, has developed for so many years. Except for some special reasons that lead to an imbalance in supply and demand, the entire market should be a fully competitive market. Most of theThe boss just earns hard money.
During the previous visit, boss Youbu told the author that they were relatively The approved raw material price is 9,000-10,000 (taking conventional polyester FDY as an example). At this price, their profits can be guaranteed and the goods will be shipped more smoothly.
September and October are the traditional peak seasons for the textile industry. If the market is better, it may It will continue until November. Now October is almost over. If no unexpected situation occurs, according to the current price decline trend, it will be at least early November before the price of polyester filament drops below 10,000 yuan. By then, the season will be over and the orders will be almost completed.
Postscript
Before the international oil price plummeted, PTA futures had been negative for eight consecutive years, and polyester prices were also falling. The sharp drop in crude oil prices has only contributed to the situation. But for weaving companies, this price drop comes too late, and they are likely to fall into the dilemma of no profits when there are many orders, and no orders when there are profits.
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