September and October are the traditional peak seasons for textiles. As it turns out, it’s already late October, and the promised peak season is still nowhere to be seen. Why is this? The author will briefly analyze it below.
PTA: fell below 7,000 points
At the close of trading at 15:00 on October 19, the main 1901 contract of PTA futures fell below 7,000 points. On October 22, PTA futures fell again, finally closing at 6944 points.
October’s PTA can be described as “up and down”. Let’s not talk about the National Day holiday for the time being. After the National Day, there will be three consecutive working days. PTA futures rose three times in a row, rising by more than 100 points every day, and once exceeded 7,500 points. In addition, the production and sales of polyester factories were good, and the country’s favorable policies were frequent. It once felt that the polyester market in October would sweep away September. The haze of weakness.
But the reality is not satisfactory. The price of crude oil has plummeted, and the stock market has hit its limit. The entire market environment seems to have fallen into a sound of decline. As a result, PTA futures began its downward path again and has continued to fall until now.
The spot trend of PTA is basically similar to that of futures. On October 22, the domestic mainstream PTA spot price was 7,220 yuan/ton, which was a decrease of 55 yuan/ton compared with the previous day.
Polyester: Operations pick up, production and sales return to sluggishness
Although PTA prices fluctuate, the operating rate of polyester factories has been steadily increasing since October. Last Friday, the production load of polyester filament and bottle flakes rebounded to 84.7%. Several units resumed operation around the weekend. This week, the polyester load is expected to reach 86%.
But in contrast, after the short-term recovery in production and sales after the National Day, by mid-October, polyester production and sales returned to the sluggish state of about 50%.
In the past two years, the prices of polyester filament and PTA have basically been synchronized. As leading polyester companies continue to deploy in the industry chain, the price transmission speed in the polyester industry chain is getting faster and faster. Basically, the price of PTA moved that day, and the price of polyester filament will follow immediately. When PTA skyrocketed in August, polyester prices even increased in the morning and made up for the increase in the afternoon.
Take polyester filament FDY150D as an example. On July 16, when the price of PTA was still stable, the price was 9,750 yuan/ton. On August 6, PTA futures 1901 began to break through 7,000 points, and the price of FDY150D The price rose to 10,600 yuan/ton. On September 10, the PTA price rose to a fixed point. The spot price exceeded the 9,000 yuan mark. The price of polyester rose to 12,350 yuan/ton. Now, the main force of PTA futures has returned to below 7,000 points. The price of polyester yarn has also dropped to 10,950 yuan/ton, a difference of 350 yuan from August 6. However, considering that the price of polyester yarn has been falling rapidly in the past week, this difference is actually not obvious.
Downstream weaving: Although there are orders, they are useless
Although as the price of PTA falls, the price of polyester filament It has gradually returned to the level in early August, and has dropped by nearly 1,500 yuan/ton from the highest point. However, for downstream weaving companies, although such a decline is gratifying, it does not seem to be enough.
The author still remembers that at the beginning of August this year, a very sensational thing happened in the weaving market. Starting from August 6, industry associations in multiple textile clusters have successively issued joint production suspension initiatives to boycott high-priced raw materials. Although part of this was due to overcapacity, in any case, the price of raw materials at that time was high for weaving companies.
Now that it is late October, the price of polyester filament is higher than on August 6. Weaving companies will definitely find this price expensive. The author checked the raw material prices for the same period last year. At this time last year, the price of polyester FDY150D was 8,600 yuan/ton, a difference of more than 2,300 yuan from now. Whether they are domestic or foreign buyers, it is impossible for them to increase their quotations by that much to gray fabric manufacturers.
This is actually the case. According to what the author has learned, in fact, starting from September, there have been more and more orders on the market, and the overall quotation of orders has also increased slightly compared with before. However, The price of raw materials is too high. Even if these orders are made, there will not be much profit, and the risk will be taken for nothing. Most of the lists currently on the market are like this, tasteless to eat and a pity to throw away. If it weren’t for the purpose of consuming inventory, companies would basically be unwilling to take such an order.
Editor’s note: After October, the price of PTA first rose and then fell. Driven by PTA, the price of polyester filament has also begun to fall recently. But for weaving manufacturers, the current raw material prices are still too expensive, and it is difficult to make a profit taking orders at such raw material prices. Whether this year’s peak season will finally come may still depend on how low the raw materials will eventually fall. </p
