Unconsciously, September has come to an end. The raw material market seems to have heard everyone’s call, and good news is coming frequently. Can the recovery of raw materials drive the downstream weaving market? Is the long-overdue peak season finally here?
Polyester Industry Chain
International Crude Oil
Under the shadow of US sanctions on Iran, international oil prices continue to rise.
As of the close on the 28th, the price of light crude oil futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by US$1.13 to close at US$73.25 per barrel, an increase of 1.57%. The price of London Brent crude oil futures for delivery in November rose by US$1.00 to close at US$82.72 per barrel, an increase of 1.22%.
PX, PTA
Driven by the strong international oil prices, PX reversed last week’s decline and began to stop falling and rebound.
As of September 28, the external price of PX has reached US$1,308/ton, an increase of US$64 from US$1,244 on September 21. In just one week, PX prices have returned to highs.
PX has risen, and PTA spot reaction is slightly slower. Under the influence of polyester factory production cuts and suspensions, the price rebound is smaller. The current PTA spot price The price is stable at 7800-8000 yuan/ton. Although the price has dropped significantly from the previous price of 9,200 yuan, at least the previous decline has been stabilized.
As a result, the price difference between PX and PTA spot prices has narrowed significantly. Supported by cost, the bottom of PTA spot price has been basically consolidated.
In terms of futures, PTA futures rebounded slightly this week compared with last week. As of the close of September 28, the main 1901 contract of PTA futures reported 7248 points, an increase of 84 points from the previous trading day, an increase of 1.17 %.
In terms of production and marketing
PTA companies will undergo further staged centralized maintenance periods in October, when PTA production capacity may be in short supply again.
Polyester filament
Compared with the rebound of PTA and PX, the price of polyester filament is as high as It’s a roller coaster, falling first and then rising, with huge fluctuations.
On September 27, the price of polyester filament from mainstream polyester manufacturers fell sharply: Tongkun POY fell by 600-800 yuan; Xinfengming POY fell by 300-350 yuan; Shenghong fell by 200-300 yuan ; Double Rabbit fell 50 to 300 yuan.
On September 28, the price of polyester filament was basically stable.
On September 29, major polyester manufacturers have increased the price of polyester filament: Shaoxing Tiansheng FDY increased by 100-200 yuan; Xinfengming polyester increased by 100 yuan; Tongkun polyester FDY, POY , DTY generally rose by 100 yuan; some polyester POY in Jiangsu Shenghong rose by 50-100 yuan, and early discounts were moderately reduced.
In terms of production and sales, polyester filament production and sales have gradually increased this week, with production and sales maintaining an average of around 130%-140%, and some promotional manufacturers can reach 200%-300%.
As of September 28, the polyester factory’s production capacity has reached about 800 tons, and the polyester operating rate has dropped to 80.4%.
The peak season is really coming?
PX prices have corrected, PTA futures and spot prices have rebounded, and polyester filament production and sales are good. All these seem to indicate that the market will improve in the next October.
September, the traditional peak season, was tepid. The sharp rise and fall of raw materials made textile people confused about the market. By the end of September, the price of raw materials finally stabilized, and downstream weaving companies also began to take action.
As the weather gets cooler, the demand for autumn and winter fabrics will eventually be released. This is a rigid need and the biggest benefit.
In addition to the good news, some bad news cannot be ignored.
The first is the inventory of gray fabrics. Because the order situation in September this year was not satisfactory, the inventory of weaving companies may have increased compared with previous years. More inventory will put greater pressure on weaving companies.
The sudden increase in production and sales of polyester factories at the end of September was partly due to the fact that state-owned enterprises were restocking before the holiday in October. Therefore, we cannot simply rely on production and sales to simply judge that the market has picked up.
In addition, raw material prices are still at a high level and may continue to fall in the future.
Editor’s note: Although there are hidden dangers of this kind, the strong performance of raw materials at the end of September did inject a shot into the textile market in October. cardiac. In the past two days, the editor took the time to visit the Shanghai Textile Expo. According to what I learned, exhibitors from various places generally received good orders during the exhibition, and they are full of confidence in the textile market in the second half of the year. Although difficulties exist, they cannot defeat the textile people who have experienced many battles! </p
