The recent polyester filament market is quite strange.
Every year after May, it is the traditional off-season for the textile and chemical fiber industry. Generally, the price of raw materials will fluctuate downwards. From mid-June, it will continue for most of the month. Polyester factories basically focus on shipments, with most production and sales in June. In the -70% range, the production and sales of individual companies with strong promotion efforts barely remained flat. But since mid-June, the market has changed. Production, sales, and prices have been unpredictable, and the market has become extremely active.
Recently, the polyester market has been rippled again, with factories pushing up and overall production and sales generally exceeding 100. Yesterday, including Shenghong, Tiansheng, Kaishi, Nearly 10 polyester manufacturers including Tongkun have once again introduced price increase plans, with price increases ranging from 50 to 100 yuan.
Abnormal price fluctuations in the off-season,
Who is constantly stirring up the nerves of polyester filament?
International chaos, strong raw materials, raw material manufacturers: crude oil production is a mystery, causing chemical fiber raw materials to panic!
Whether it is the cost of polyester raw materials or the stimulation of reduced crude oil supply, stimulated by a series of good news from the upstream, the polyester market has been ready to rise.
At 24:00 on July 9, domestic refined oil prices will rise for the eighth time this year, and it will be the largest increase. During this round of price adjustment windows, the prices of London Brent and New York WTI crude oil futures rose sharply, returning to their highs in the past three and a half years.
Currently, issues regarding crude oil production continue to ferment. Established supply interruptions, uncertain supply prospects and concerns about demand growth are also the main reasons for high and volatile oil prices.
On the one hand, Venezuela’s domestic economy has deteriorated and production has declined sharply; the United States has imposed an oil embargo on Iran, resulting in a decline in OPEC crude oil supply. At the same time, Iran claimed that it would block the Strait of Holmes in response, increasing market concerns about the shortage of crude oil supply in the Middle East. In addition, there is no clear plan for OPEC’s previously expected increase in production, and the market’s concerns about increased supply have eased.
While “welcoming” the rise in oil prices, chemical fiber raw materials are also undergoing constant tests.
It is understood that with the sharp rise in crude oil and the continuous sharp depreciation of the RMB, the focus of PTA production costs has increased significantly. According to rough calculations by industry insiders: the RMB depreciated by 0.1, the cost of PTA increased by 78 yuan/ton, crude oil increased by 1 US dollar, and the cost of PTA increased by 38 yuan/ton.
At present, the production profits of the PTA industry chain are at a relatively low level. On the other hand, PTA social inventory is also at a low level and downstream profits are at a high level. At this time, the financial level is more enthusiastic about going long in PTA futures. , the fluctuations in PTA futures are also more severe.
Therefore, boosted by international oil prices and futures, the daily PTA spot market has been relatively strong since July, with both futures and spot prices varying to varying degrees. The rise will help the polyester filament end to rise.
Environmental protection is strict, downstream panic, weaving companies: order delivery deadlines are tight, the production of “squeezing toothpaste”, and the slightest change in raw materials!
Changes in demand downstream of the terminal have always affected the key points of polyester filament. After entering June, as market orders continued to weaken, the weaving market gradually entered the off-season. However, as can be seen from the figure below, the start-up of weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is relatively stable, and there is no sharp decline trend in previous years.
The reason is that due to the fact that environmental protection rectification still exists in Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas, looms are still running three times and one time off in some areas. Although weaving is strictly prohibited due to environmental protection factors, The start-up rate is suppressed, but due to the long-term environmental protection restrictions and production shutdowns including the peak season this year, it is very common for orders to be delayed from the peak season to July. The current market demand for pongee textiles is still in short supply.
At the same time, fortunately, the textile industry chain is booming this year. When the off-season comes, the inventory of both polyester filament and gray fabric markets is not high. The current inventory of gray fabrics in Shengze area is about 23 days. , which has dropped by about 7 days year-on-year and is at a historically low level. In the case of low inventory, the market mentality is relatively positive, which is inevitable for the urgent needs of the raw material market. It can be said that the tight balance of weaving orders under environmental protection restrictions has caused a sharp decline in demand for raw materials. At the same time, due to low inventories of filament and gray fabrics, market fluctuations have a more obvious impact on the pricing of polyester filament.
In general, with the boost in upstream costs and the support of demand, coupled with the control of its own low inventory, the polyester filament market has formed a strong off-season pattern; and from time to time, international oil prices have boosted, The surge in PTA and other external positive stimulations are even more powerful for the already strong polyester market. A pattern of easy rise and hard fall has been formed! </p
