As the mid-year exam approaches, the storm of water spraying, production restrictions, and shutdowns in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has hit again!
Recently, the news that 80% of Jiashan’s water spray production capacity has been shut down and that Changxing’s textile industry has experienced large-scale power rationing has spread throughout the entire industry circle of friends! The previous “three starts and one stop” in Shengze area is still ongoing. After more than half a year of ups and downs, the news of the elimination of water-jet looms has once again focused everyone’s attention on this.
In this context, both polyester factories and weaving trading companies have become more concerned about issues. For example, greatly compressing the production capacity of water-jet looms will affect the length of polyester. Is silk supply and demand?
The volume and capacity compression of water-jet looms in Jiashan, Changxing and Shengze
According to a set of data provided by an industry association, as of the end of 2016, there were more than 400,000 water-jet looms in the country, with an annual output of 44.8 billion meters of various filament fabrics.
In 2017, 2018 and 2019, Wujiang and Jiaxing plan to ban 114,000 water-jet looms, which means that 1/4 of the country’s water-jet looms will be eliminated . Based on the daily output of a water-jet loom of more than 300 meters and an average operating rate of 80%, the production capacity of phased-out filament fabrics is initially estimated at 10 billion meters, which will reduce the use of polyester filament by 3,420 tons per day and approximately 1.2 million tons throughout the year. of polyester filament, and this output is equivalent to the annual production capacity of a large polyester factory.
Situation of water-jet loom equipment in key industrial clusters in 2016
Today This three-year transformation is already halfway through.
Shengze: It is understood that according to the phase-out schedule, the Shengze region has reduced nearly half of its production capacity, so there are still about 70,000 units in total. The “three-on-three-on-one” policy that started on May 24 and has lasted for 39 days has actually reduced production by nearly 300 million meters.
Jiaxing Jiashan: Because it is not large in size, it covers a wide area, with almost all of the total number of more than 20,000 units involved. According to a textile boss in Jiashan, 80% of the more than 20,000 looms have been permanently shut down, and another 20% of the machines are still subject to follow-up policies. Taking 16,000 machines as an example, the Guang Changxing market will reduce its annual gray fabric production by nearly 1.75 billion meters in the future.
Huzhou Changxing: On the other hand, Changxing’s power restriction policy will also be implemented after July 1. It is understood that there are more than 3,000 textile production and business units in the county, among which There are only 290 enterprises on the list. Comprehensive documents show that the average power rationing for textiles (texturing and water spraying) ranges from 4 to 16 days. With the current inventory of 75,000 looms, only the minimum power rationing of 4 days is required. , continuing until the end of the year, the output of gray fabrics will also be reduced by 700 million meters.
Therefore, in the second half of 2018, the production of gray fabrics due to the limited suspension of water-jet looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions will see a significant contraction in production capacity!
How will the polyester chemical fiber market perform in the near future?
Since June this year, the average operating rate of the polyester industry has been on the rise compared with the same period last year, and the profits of related polyester and polyester products are also relatively considerable, but in fact these Part of this depends on the good control of polyester companies.
In July, the large-scale passive production of water-jet looms was stopped. Will it have any impact on market demand? How will the polyester chemical fiber market perform in the future? It is recommended that everyone pay attention to the following market factors:
1. The leading factors on the raw material end have taken a larger proportion recently
As we all know, as a bulk commodity, the price of polyester filament depends on two factors: raw material cost and downstream acceptance. Polyester filament is also the variety with the largest share in the entire chemical fiber industry. In recent years, due to the impact of environmental protection factors, many downstream water-jet weaving and printing and dyeing factories have been closed down, and they have also been greatly affected by this.
However, in recent months, the price of polyester filament has basically maintained a stable and rising trend, which shows that the industry can adjust its own operating rate based on the downstream operating rate, so as to be able to Let polyester filament prices remain stable.
Since last month, as the price of crude oil has been greatly affected by the international situation, the cost of polyester raw materials has increased, and the price of polyester filament has also fluctuated violently. However, the trend of raw materials in the later period is still relatively stable. It is optimistic, so in the short term it seems to be strongly supported by upstream and also most affected by upstream.
Factors of later concern: confusing crude oil, wavering Trump, and OPEC trends with uncontrolled production.
2. With the increase in water-jet loom shutdown areas, will the demand for polyester filament be significantly reduced in the short term?
Industrial clusters simultaneously control water-jet looms. It is foreseeable that large-scale loom production restrictions will inevitably affect the long-term growth of polyester in the short term. demand for silk products.
But from this year’s perspective, as a large number of companies have chosen to transfer production capacity to northern Jiangsu, Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei and other places since last year, a large number of textile bases have also followed suit. Judging from current statistical data, the rise ofApproximately more than 100,000 water-jet looms will enter the market this year, which means that the demand for raw materials will have a strong driving force.
Factors of later concern: (1) It is heard that the water-jet loom control policy in Shengze area was canceled yesterday, which to a certain extent offset the reduction in production capacity in Jiashan and Changxing areas , pay attention to the policy continuation in the later period (2) Pay attention to the production progress nodes of water-jet looms in the central and western regions.
3. The production suspension of printing and dyeing factories indirectly restricts the demand for polyester yarn
Printing and dyeing As an indispensable back-end process for weaving enterprises, it is now affected by environmental protection regulations, and many areas are also in a state of restricted production suspension.
It is understood that Shaoxing Yuecheng District issued a document on the 1st, requiring printing and dyeing companies in the district to reduce (limit production) by more than 40%. Coupled with Changxing’s power restrictions on printing and dyeing companies, future printing and dyeing Zhejiang, a major province, will impose high pressure on printing and dyeing factories to limit production and suspend production. In addition, I heard that printing and dyeing companies in Changshu have also reduced production since mid-June. The restrictions on the printing and dyeing end have also hindered the production of the weaving end, directly restricting the demand for polyester filament.
Factors of later concern: Whether severe weather such as summer typhoons will cause regional antimony concentrations to exceed standards, printing and dyeing companies may once again face limited production suspensions, resulting in another extension of fabric delivery.
4. The weaving market continues to see orders due to shrinking production capacity, and the off-season is not weak
Worth it Fortunately, since May, news of closures, production suspensions, and production restrictions have been reported in Shengze and surrounding areas, Keqiao, Zengcheng, Changyi and other places, which temporarily disrupted the rhythm of the off-season and caused weaving market orders Still good, demand for polyester filament is moving forward steadily with low inventories and high profits.
Factors of later concern: Whether the leading products in the fabric market in the second half of the year can be confirmed in August. If not confirmed in August, the market will lose its direction and the weaving factories will lose production. Enthusiasm will also have an impact on raw material demand. </p
