Since the beginning of this year, crude oil futures, the source of polyester, have been ups and downs, with frequent fluctuations. Under this transmission effect, not only is it difficult to find good news in the PTA market, but the futures and spot markets have also been suppressed, especially E2, which suddenly “turned red” in the fourth quarter of last year. The alcohol market has experienced a sudden cold this year, and the market is sluggish. The elusive polyester market will inevitably have an impact on the polyester filament market; and the downstream weaving market was also overdrawn by the market wave in the second half of last year. After the Spring Festival, the market performance was average after the Spring Festival, and the market peak season did not arrive until April and May. .
Under the dual constraints of the upstream and downstream markets, can the polyester filament market still thrive as it did in the second half of last year? What kind of market situation and situation is the polyester filament market facing from January to May?
1. The polyester market was weak and the price fell by more than 1,000 yuan
Since the beginning of this year, the overall polyester filament market has been weak, with prices falling by more than a thousand yuan. Before the Spring Festival, due to the start-up of downstream weaving and lightening, the polyester market mainly focused on preferential shipments, and some manufacturers’ quotations showed a slight decline and preferential measures; after the holiday, the polyester market had a short-term good start, and the quotations of mainstream products in the market were mostly 150-400. There was room for growth of about RMB/ton, but it only lasted for about half a month. Afterwards, under the pressure of the upstream and downstream markets, the mainstream quotations of polyester yarn gradually loosened, and the sluggish momentum continued until early April. It was not until after the Qingming Festival, boosted by various favorable factors such as rising international oil prices and follow-up downstream demand, that the polyester yarn market gradually rose, and manufacturers’ quotations moved higher. However, the good times only lasted about half a month, and market prices weakened again. Entering mid-May, thanks to the POY meeting, the surge in crude oil, and the rebound in the bulk futures market, the polyester market stopped falling and rebounded. With the upstream market taking off strongly, the polyester market saw a certain increase. .
2. The profit level fluctuates greatly, and FDY shrinks significantly
Since the beginning of this year, the profits of various products in the polyester filament market have fluctuated significantly, with large fluctuations, but there have been almost no serious losses; there has been a certain profit growth year-on-year, but there has been a significant shrinkage compared to the beginning of the year. Among them, the profit of DTY products is relatively stable, and the overall profit is at a relatively high level; during the market increase in February and April, the profit level even exceeded 1,000 yuan, and most of the others fluctuated around the profit space of 600-1,000 yuan/ton. The profit of FDY 150D fluctuated the most this year, and the room for profit shrinkage was also the most obvious; in early January, its profit was as high as 1,300 yuan/ton, and then due to price compression, the profit plummeted by 1,000 yuan to 300 yuan/ton. There has been an increase, but it has always hovered between 300-800 yuan/ton, making it difficult to make profits from the early highs. In addition, the profit of POY products shrank in a straight line in January, and was once close to a loss. After the Spring Festival, boosted by the increase in both volume and price, profit growth began. During the downturn in March, profits fell again, and fell once again in mid-to-late April. It was close to the peak of 1,000 yuan, but then profits shrank again.
3. Mainstream production and sales are quite dull, with explosive points emerging from time to time
In recent months, the overall production and sales situation of the polyester filament market has been quite flat, with flashpoints appearing from time to time. As the start-up rate declined before the Spring Festival, the actual transaction volume in the polyester market was naturally small, and the average production and sales fell back to 50-80%; there was only a short-term surge in production and sales in the middle of the year. After the Spring Festival, weaving manufacturers entered the production stage in an orderly manner, and their enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials also increased. Mainstream production and sales generally exceeded 100. However, restricted by the weakening of upstream raw materials, downstream stocking sentiment was frustrated, and most of them focused on consuming early inventory. Silk production and sales showed a correction. Until mid-March, as the price of raw materials bottomed out, downstream weaving manufacturers gradually increased their purchases, among which POY performed better. After an adjustment period, after the Qingming Festival, the atmosphere of polyester production and sales was ignited again, and downstream weaving manufacturers started purchasing one after another. The average production and sales increased to about 100%-150%, and some POY manufacturers were temporarily closed. However, from late April to early May, purchasing enthusiasm gradually declined, and the overall market production and sales weakened, with production and sales falling to 50-80%. By mid-May, downstream enthusiasm for stocking was stimulated, and with the help of the surge in upstream raw materials, the polyester market Production and sales are booming, with average production and sales exceeding 200%, and some polyester manufacturers’ production and sales are as high as 400-500%.
4. The inventory growth of polyester manufacturers suppresses the market mentality
As for inventory, under the circumstances that the overall production and sales of the polyester filament market are average, the inventory level of the polyester market this yearThere is a certain level of growth. Before the holiday, due to the low inventory support in the early stage, the market inventory was not high; however, as the purchasing enthusiasm of the downstream market decreased from the post-holiday period to March, the production and sales of the polyester yarn market were difficult to increase, and the inventory of polyester manufacturers accumulated, rising to the level this year The high level suppressed the market mentality. Until April, with the boost in production and sales, the inventory pressure of mainstream manufacturers was relieved to a certain extent; after that, it was on a trend of first rising and then falling, and the early inventory pressure of polyester manufacturers was somewhat released. According to industry inventory data statistics, the current overall polyester market inventory is concentrated around 11-28 days; POY inventory is around 7-13 days, FDY inventory is concentrated around 11-19 days, and DTY inventory is around 19-29 days about.
5. International oil prices are unpredictable and may be negative in the short term
As a benchmark for polyester, international crude oil has experienced sharp rises and falls, but the negative risks in the market outlook are still relatively large. The production reduction controversy and the production reduction agreement of oil-producing countries are still surrounding, and the global oil market is unpredictable. In the case of limited market benefits, the market conditions of polyester raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol are still in a mixed situation of long and short. From the perspective of downstream market demand, July and August are basically the off-season for textiles, and downstream demand may not be significantly boosted. Whether the market outlook will usher in the Golden Nine and Silver Ten is still the focus of the market. In the short term, the polyester market may experience a certain correction; whether it can rise in the long term still depends on the true improvement in the supply and demand relationship.
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