In the past few days, environmental impact assessment announcements of refining and chemical integration projects have been very popular among petrochemical friends. People in the industry have noticed at a glance that it is not the big oil refining, nor the big ethylene, but the big aromatics. To put it more bluntly, it is paraxylene ( PX), to use current buzzwords, we need to roll up our sleeves and work hard to build the much-needed PX as quickly and cost-effectively as possible.
Let’s first list these PX projects that will be newly built or under construction: Zhejiang Petrochemical’s 8 million tons in Daishan County, Zhoushan, Zhejiang (divided into two phases, each phase has 4 million tons, annual production capacity, the same below); Hebei Xinhua United Petrochemical is located in Tangshan, Hebei Caofeidian’s 5.57 million tons of aromatics (according to authoritative sources, PX may be 4 million tons); in addition to this company, Caofeidian also has the combined production capacity of three companies (Qianhai Group Yizhong Petrochemical, Huatong Jingang and GCL Group) About 7.5 million tons; Shenghong Petrochemical’s 2.8 million tons located in Xuwei New District, Lianyungang, Jiangsu; Hengli Petrochemical’s 4.5 million tons located on Changxing Island, Dalian, Liaoning, which has started construction in 2016. The total new production capacity of the above four major petrochemical bases will reach 22.8 million tons, and these new production capacities will be put on the market one after another from 2018 to 2020. In addition, there are new and under-construction PX projects in Huizhou, Guangdong, Ningbo, Zhejiang, Tianjin, Shanghai, Fujian, Hainan, Guangxi, Yunnan and Henan, and some are about to be completed. In addition, as a major petrochemical province, Shandong is not to be outdone. In March this year, it was announced with a high profile that a PX project of nearly 10 million tons would be included in the national plan. If the latter can be realized, the new production capacity will exceed 40 million tons in five years. It is not an exaggeration to say that PX is being built like crazy now.
Of course, the current madness is mainly based on the fact that the new PX projects have basically been at a standstill in the past few years. In 2015, the Ningbo CICC 1.6 million tons PX project under Rongsheng Petrochemical was put into operation, and in 2016, the 1.6 million tons of Fujian Tenglong Aromatics Unit was put into operation due to Therefore, dismantling has withdrawn from the market, and this increase and decrease, coupled with the fact that no large PX projects have been put into production in recent years, the increase in the existing total production capacity of PX has not kept pace with the pace of downstream demand, because the downstream PTA and polyester industries have been in operation for nearly five years. The development rate in recent years has been astonishing. In 2011, my country’s apparent consumption demand for PX was about 11 million tons, and by 2016 it was 22 million tons. The demand has doubled in the past five years, and in these five years, my country’s PX production has increased from 6.8 million tons to 10 million tons, an increase of No more than 50%, and the huge gap will be made up entirely by increasing imports. The reason why the development of the PX-PTA-polyester industry chain is out of sync is not that companies are unwilling to build new PX devices. It is because many mass incidents have broken out in various places that have caused new PX projects to be shelved indefinitely or even canceled. PX fears The disease has been reported in Xiamen, Dalian, Ningbo, Chengdu, Maoming, Shanghai and other places. Now, after repeated scientific demonstrations, various local governments believe that as long as safety and environmental protection issues are solved and management is strictly strengthened, the PX project can be launched.
Secondly, it is crazy because the newly added production capacity figure of 40 million tons is a bit unreliable. As of the end of 2016, the global PX production capacity was about 53 million tons, more than 40% of which was contributed to China, because my country’s apparent demand for PX was about 22 million tons, of which the output was nearly 10 million tons and the import volume exceeded 12 million tons. , the self-sufficiency rate is only 45%, while the existing production capacity is just over 12 million tons, and the average operating rate of the equipment is 80%. However, after the rapid development in the early stage, the domestic downstream PTA and polyester have now entered a stage of stable development, with a growth rate equivalent to GDP, only between 6-7%. Based on this rough calculation, the demand for PX in five years will be about 3,000 About 10,000 tons. If all imports are replaced and the operating rate is 80%, the required PX production capacity will not exceed 38 million tons. After deducting the existing 12 million tons of production capacity, the newly added 2,600 tons of production capacity will be enough to meet the domestic demand. demand, and now the production capacity of the new PX project can be estimated to have exceeded 40 million tons. By then, the extra 14 million tons of production capacity must find a place to go.
The third reason I say crazy is because our ideals are too crazy. Let’s first talk about the current import volume of more than 12 million tons. In 2016, South Korea and Japan ranked among the top two importers with 47.3% and 19.6% respectively. South Korea, in particular, has become China’s largest source of PX imports since replacing Japan in 2011. It has been ranked first ever since. In fact, in the past few years when my country’s PX development has stagnated, South Korea has been developing rapidly, and its target is the Chinese market. In terms of geographical location, China is adjacent to South Korea, and Chinese PTA factories are mostly located on the eastern coast. The cost of transporting Korean PX to these areas is relatively low, so it mainly flows to these areas. It can be said that during the years when our development was stagnant, South Korea’s PX made a lot of money. Now that these regions will build their own supporting PX devices, there will definitely be a price war in the future. It is certain that imports will gradually be replaced, but complete replacement will take a long way, and may also rely on policy support such as anti-dumping. Only then can the source of imported goods be blocked outside the country. Some people may say that with the extra production capacity by then, we can use the Belt and Road Initiative to go abroad. This may be a bit crazy ideal. First, the biggest competitors we encounter are South Korea and Japan. We can have prices, etc. advantages? Second, other developing countries such as India are also vigorously developing their own PX-PTA-polyester industry. It is estimated that it will not be so easy to export smoothly.
We need to build new and more PX projects to gradually reduce our dependence on imports and ensure that the country’s PX-Safe development of PTA-polyester industry chain. After stagnating in the past few years, the PX project finally ushered in a complete explosion this year, and those in the industry can finally feel proud. But we cannot blindly and uncontrollably launch PX projects. Large-scale petrochemical projects like this generally take 3-5 years from project establishment and research to final device commissioning. Local resource conditions and supporting measures must be considered. . I really don’t want to see that after rapid development in the next few years, we will encounter bottlenecks again and have to reduce production capacity like many other industries currently. Therefore, PX production capacity needs to be expanded, but it should not be too crazy. It must develop rationally and orderly, so that society can be more harmonious. Remember that when the moon rises, it will lose money, and when the water is full, it will overflow.
</p
