After the Spring Festival, the price increase of viscose staple fiber is expected, which makes many market participants full of confidence. However, the picture has suddenly changed. In the February that just ended, the market price of viscose staple fiber first increased and then stabilized. The price of viscose staple fiber began to be in a situation where it could not fall or rise. The acceptance level of downstream yarn mills has been mediocre. New prices Unit production and sales have also begun to be unsatisfactory. In the words of a salesperson from a leading company: It is difficult for prices to rise now, and it is not easy for prices to fall! As of March 2, the average mainstream market price of viscose staple fiber 1.5D is 17,420 yuan/ton, of which the mainstream quotations for mid-range products are 17,500-17,600 yuan/ton, and high-end products are 17,700-17,800 yuan/ton. The overall price has been The stalemate lasted for nearly a week.
The author has mentioned in several articles before that since 2016, the viscose staple fiber market has been in a state of prosperity. There are indeed many positive indicators driving this, including the low-speed growth of production capacity in recent years, the reduction of industry supply caused by environmental protection factors, the increase in downstream demand for rayon products, etc. These factors also determine the fundamentals of the industry to develop in a healthy direction. As a link in the textile industry, the rapid rise of viscose staple fiber is inseparable from the increase in industry concentration. In layman’s terms, it means that leading companies have a strong voice.
According to statistical data, after experiencing the survival of the fittest in the market from 2009 to 2014, the current “leading” companies in the industry have obvious advantages in scale. Among them, seven sticky short-term companies have a prominent market share. These seven companies are: Tangshan Sanyou, Zhejiang Fulida, Sateri Chemical Fiber, Yibin Siliya, Shandong Yamei Chemical Fiber, Jiangsu Aoyang Technology, and Jiangsu Xiangsheng have annual viscose staple fiber production capacities of 500,000 tons, 500,000 tons, 460,000 tons, and 30,000 tons respectively. 10,000 tons, 280,000 tons, 260,000 tons, 260,000 tons.
These seven companies account for nearly 70% of the market. It is no wonder that every time several major manufacturers hold industry conferences in 2016, prices will rise or stabilize according to the spirit of the conference. For the viscose staple fiber industry, where the industry’s prosperity has rebounded significantly, many leading companies have even deployed the industry to enhance their voice in the market.
As one of the largest viscose staple manufacturers in China, Sanyou Chemical has achieved good results in 2016, boosted by the rising prosperity of the viscose staple fiber industry. According to the third quarter financial report, from January to September this year, Sanyou Chemical achieved revenue of 11.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.36%, and net profit of 570 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72.1%. With the continuous breakthroughs in the industry’s basic research, equipment, technology and other technologies, as well as the advancement of the industrialization process, the relevant person in charge of Sanyou Chemical believes that the regenerated cellulose fiber industry will have a large development space in the future. It is expected that in 2020, my country’s The production capacity of viscose fiber will reach 5 million tons.
Not only Sanyou Chemical, but Sateri also has plans to expand production. In August 2016, it announced the purchase of 1 million tons of new equipment for production expansion. The total investment in the new project is expected to exceed 10 billion yuan. In addition, as Zhongtai Chemical turns Xinjiang Fulida into a wholly-owned subsidiary and forms a shareholding in Alar Hengtian Hailong, Zhongtai Chemical’s layout in Xinjiang’s viscose industry continues to strengthen. After all the projects under construction in Xinjiang Fulida are completed, the production capacity of viscose fiber will reach 400,000 tons.
It can be seen that as the layout of these leading enterprises is gradually realized, the concentration of the domestic viscose staple fiber industry will continue to increase, the consistency of manufacturers’ operations will be enhanced, and the disorderly bidding transactions in the market will gradually decrease, which will further stimulate the market. Competition proceeds in an orderly manner.
Judging from the recent market trends, the viscose staple fiber market is currently in a period of blocked upstream and downstream transmission. The orders received by downstream yarn mills are not as expected. The profits of yarn produced under high raw material costs are diluted, resulting in yarn mills purchasing raw materials. The intention is not strong. In order to prevent the downstream market from continuing to weaken and resisting high prices, leading to a sharp correction in short-term prices in the later period, leading companies have to take conservative operations and find a balance between upstream and downstream.
For this reason, from the perspective of market sustainability, in the face of slow price increases in the entire viscose staple fiber industry chain and weak new orders, viscose staple fiber should appropriately slow down the pace of growth and control the pace at this time. , step by step is also to accumulate better motivation for the next rise, which is also excellent!
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