In the past year, the price performance of viscose staple fiber has been remarkable among all bulk textile chemical fiber raw materials. Viscose staple fiber, which has been dubbed the “dark horse” by market participants, has made an elegant upward trend. Wire. However, as the implementation of the “strictest environmental protection law” in history becomes increasingly intensive, this has also posed new challenges to the viscose staple fiber industry. Fortunately, during the nearly eight years of resistance from 2009 to 2016, the viscose staple fiber industry The prosperity of the short fiber industry has rebounded significantly.
Production at full capacity coincides with a correction in the industry
In fact, looking back at the “anti-war history” of viscose staple fiber in the past eight years, we found that the market high point actually occurred at the end of 2010, with the highest price touching 30,000 yuan/ton, and the low point was in early 2015, with the mainstream market price being 11,300 yuan/ton. . In the past eight years, the market price gap of viscose staple fiber has been 18,700 yuan/ton.
2010 can be said to be the “golden age” of viscose staple fiber. On the one hand, the price of cotton in my country has reached the highest record in ten years, with the price touching 30,500 yuan/ton. As a substitute for viscose staple fiber, the market price has also been increasing. The price jumped to 30,000 yuan/ton, which can be said to be a great success. Driven by high prices and high profits, in the second year (2011), my country’s new viscose staple fiber production capacity was 740,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 35%.
In fact, most people in the textile industry are particularly impressed by the time of 2011, because the prosperity of the entire textile industry took a sharp turn since 2011, starting a six-year “downturn” cycle. During this period, most chemical fiber textile raw materials began to experience various “pains”: international economic recession, market overcapacity, product price transparency, weakening domestic and foreign competitiveness… Chemical fiber products, led by polyester filament, opened a downward path.
At this time, viscose staple fiber production capacity surged, but domestic and foreign market demand did not follow suit. Therefore, viscose staple fiber could not escape the fate of decline. Against the background of the imbalance between market supply and demand, it also began to decline. As traders become more difficult to operate and market profits gradually shrink until they are unprofitable, the number of traders participating in the market decreases sharply. Meanwhile, manufacturers are under pressure from shipments and inventories, and price competition becomes fierce. The market was once in a state of disorder. Price closing and preferential prices have become the norm in the market. At this time, manufacturers are not competing on product quality, but on financial strength. Whoever has strong funds and can afford to pay will not be eliminated. In this round of cruel market competition, countless small and medium-sized viscose staple fiber manufacturers have fallen. There was a cry in the industry.
Environmental protection has become a catalyst, and viscose staple fiber has made a strong return
As the growth rate of the viscose staple fiber industry’s production capacity slows down, Xinjiang’s vigorous development of the textile industry has driven domestic demand for viscose staple fiber. In addition, in the past 15 years, many small and medium-sized enterprises have been forced to reduce production due to environmental protection factors in the market. The entire supply and demand side of the market has improved, so the viscose staple fiber industry has also ended its trough consolidation period, and the market has regained strength.
In 2015, due to the impact of environmental protection regulations in Xinjiang, Xinjiang Shunquan (70,000 tons) and Xinjiang Aoyang (120,000 tons) were stopped across the board. The three manufacturers have a total parking capacity of 290,000 tons, accounting for 8% of domestic production capacity. Under the current heavy pressure on environmental protection, government departments will not let it go easily, and it is very difficult to drive. The entire environmental protection rectification has lasted for more than half a year. The industry’s prosperity has rebounded significantly. The market has performed well in terms of production, sales and inventory, and prices have begun to Reverse from the bottom.
In 2016, when the G20 Summit was held in Hangzhou, the scope of the shutdown affected 11 cities in Zhejiang Province. East China is the largest concentration of production capacity in my country. The viscose staple fiber production capacity accounts for more than 50% of the country. Among them, Zhejiang has a production capacity of 180,000 tons, accounting for 10% in East China and 5% nationwide. This makes 2016 The supply of viscose staple fiber in the second half of the year has been relatively tight. According to statistics, the actual effective operating rate in 2016 was close to 100%, while the new production capacity in 2016-17 was only 3%, and the industry inventory remained at 4 at the end of the year. -5-day historical low, and market fundamentals continue to improve. It can be seen that environmental protection regulations have become the most effective catalyst for market recovery.
As the saying goes, “Forefathers plant trees, and future generations enjoy the shade.” After eight years of ups and downs in the viscose staple fiber industry, the market’s upward momentum is still established, and it can be said that the clouds are clear and the moon is bright. At present, no matter from the fundamentals such as supply and demand or inventory, viscose staple fiber is showing a strong trend. Therefore, it is believed that viscose staple fiber will still be “smiling and proud” in 2017!
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