On July 28, after completing the research trip in northern Xinjiang, the reporter drove to Kuqa City in southern Xinjiang to continue investigating the local cotton growth and other conditions.
It is understood that compared with the slight decrease in the cotton planting area in northern Xinjiang, the planting area in Kuqa is basically stable, and the cotton output has increased compared with last year. A local cotton farmer told reporters that the local climate conditions are conducive to cotton growth this year, and cotton is growing well. Although affected by high temperatures, insect pests are more serious, but after chemical control, cotton insect pests have been well suppressed and yields can be guaranteed. Last year, the average cotton output per mu reached 450 kilograms, and it is expected that the output will increase slightly this year. Driven by last year’s cotton market, cotton planting benefits are higher than other crops. Cotton farmers are highly motivated to plant cotton. Local cotton land rental costs are higher than last year. The average land rent per mu has reached about 1,300 yuan. Coupled with the rising prices of agricultural inputs such as fertilizers, this year The cost of cotton planting has increased significantly, with the estimated cost being 2,600-3,000 yuan/mu.
Faced with the upcoming seed cotton purchase season, the mentality of ginning companies in southern Xinjiang is different from that in northern Xinjiang. Because the seed cotton purchase market showed a trend of opening high and falling low last year, the purchase cost of seed cotton in northern Xinjiang was higher than that of enterprises in southern Xinjiang. When the market price of lint cotton fell sharply this year, some ginning enterprises in southern Xinjiang suffered less losses than those in northern Xinjiang. When it comes to the purchase price of seed cotton this year, the expectations of enterprises in southern Xinjiang are basically the same as those of enterprises in northern Xinjiang. The equivalent price of lint cotton may be 13,000 yuan/ton. Of course, this is the current prediction. The actual price must refer to the Zheng cotton futures price. Now the futures price fluctuates greatly. It is not appropriate to draw premature conclusions as to how stable the price will be by then. However, one thing that is certain is that when a company is acquired, profit margins will be reserved for futures arbitrage.
As for the purchase volume of seed cotton, the interviewed companies believe that if the price of seed cotton opens low this year, the purchase will be liberalized. Judging from the long-term fluctuation trend of cotton prices, cotton futures prices are around 13,000 yuan/ton. In the historically low range, risks are relatively controllable. Compared with the cautious acquisition attitude of enterprises in northern Xinjiang, enterprises in southern Xinjiang are relatively optimistic.
This year, the area of Kuqa and Xinhe will remain stable, the yield per unit area is expected to increase slightly, and the total cotton output will also increase. Local ginning companies believe that the large amount of unsold lint cotton last year and the high probability of new flower production this year will put pressure on the cotton market, making it very difficult for cotton prices to rebound significantly. In addition, the start-up production situation of Xinjiang textile enterprises is not good. Insufficient orders have led to a decline in cotton consumption, and the future cotton price is still not optimistic.