At the beginning of OctoberOPEC+’s production cuts pushed oil prices to soar sharply. By the middle of October10 , concerns about economic recession in Europe and the United States have begun to envelope the oil market again. On October On 14, international oil prices fell by more than 3%, the drop exceeded 7% in a week, fell again this week, and the price of Brent oil approached 90USD, and then began to rebound, jumping sideways repeatedly.
Crude oilContinuously staged reversal dramas, and the hearts of textile people are also being led. As the world’s largest manufacturing country, China needs to import a large amount of oil every year. The raw materials of the modern textile industry are mainly chemical fibers, and the most source is petroleum. Therefore, the market is very sensitive to the sharp rise and fall of crude oil.
Crude oil “Fighting between gods”
During the National Day, oil prices soared 15%, and polyester filament experienced a “five consecutive rises”. Some textile companies complained, “Is this yarn made of gold or silver?” Will it stay cooked?” While buying silk in large quantities, I was afraid that if I bought it too late, the price would skyrocket.
After the National Day, the drop in oil prices caused the price of polyester filament to continue to fall. The textile people who bought high-priced raw materialsbecame Xianglin’s wives again: “I’m so stupid, really. I just know that when crude oil rises, polyester manufacturers can’t stand it and the price will rise. I don’t know if it will fall after it rises.,It fellso fast.”
In the past few years, crude oil prices have skyrocketed and plummeted frequently. In 2020 there was a historic negative oil price, which made many people cry for wisdom. This year, due to the Russia-Ukraine war, oil prices have soared again. As the international political and economic situation continues to become more complicated, crude oil, as one of the most important resources in the world, has become the focus of a multi-party game, which can be described as a “fight between gods.”
Behind the sudden rise and fall of crude oil there is also a complex international game, including but not limited to the desire to lower inflation before the U.S. midterm elections, the direct common interests of oil-producing countries and Russia, and economists’ pessimism about future economic expectations.
From “not short of money” to “quote while pressing the calculator”
Actually speaking, the current rise and fall of raw materials is not that big. The one that impressed me the most was the summer of 2018PTA futures went directly to 8000 points, and the price of polyester yarn exceeded 12000. The increase at that time was much greater than it is now. But the situation at that time was that although textile people were complaining about the price of raw materials, every time the price of polyester yarn increased, the production and sales would basically exceed 100. The higher the increase, the more the market bought it, highlighting the “not bad money”. This is mainly because there was a rare hot market in the first half of 2018. The inventory accumulated for several years was wiped out, and textile companies obtained a large amount of cash flow. Downstream also feels that the future market will not be bad, so they have no worries about the marketability of the produced cloth.
The situation this year is indeed that the cash flow of upstream and downstream is relatively tight, and they dare not stock up too much goods. The demand after the global shrinkage “cannot feed” China’s huge production capacity, so the weaving enterprises It is difficult for the machine to be fully activated. When cash flow is tight, companies do not dare to produce too much inventory, so they can only reduce the operating rate, and the demand for silk is not that big.
The situation of oversupply will also turn the seller’s market into a buyer’s market. Now there is a saying that when customers come to the company to place an order, they hold a calculator and clearly calculate the cost, and then follow this Calculate the results to place orders and squeeze out profits. Textile people couldn’t help but joke: “Today’s customers know the costs better than you.”
In this case, if you buy raw materials cheaper, you can quote cheaper than others without losing money, and you may be able to receive orders, so you are more sensitive to the price of raw materials. Although I know that this situation is not healthy and puts a lot of pressure on everyone, there is nothing I can do in order to survive.
Rapid price increases and decreases in raw materials will hurt textile workers. However,In this year’s global economic situation, this is not the first time. ���will be the last time.
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