Introduction:
It was just said yesterday that power cuts would be suspended in Zhejiang, but the situation changed today in Shaoxing However, power rationing remains the same, and efforts have even been intensified to adjust the orderly power consumption period from 7:00-23:00 every day to 24 hours a day. The previously promoted polyester yarn suddenly reversed and began to crawl upwards.
According to silkdu.com data monitoring: the current prices of three conventional specifications of polyester yarn: 150D FDY is 8,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last weekend, an increase of 1.2%; 150D POY is 8,150, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from last weekend. Yuan/ton, an increase of 0.6%; the price of 150D DTY was 9,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton from last weekend, a decrease of 1.5%. Except for DTY, whose prices are currently in chaos, FDY and POY have all increased slightly.
Figure 1 Price trend chart of conventional polyester yarn
Cost support reappears
From a cost perspective, crude oil prices have reversed their decline since this week and achieved “three consecutive increases”. Since winter may be colder than normal, crude oil prices may continue to rise throughout the winter. , as of November 9, the price of Brent crude oil has reached 84.78 US dollars per barrel, close to the 85 US dollars mark, and the stabilization of thermal coal has caused MEG to show a state of shock.
As the price of MEG stabilizes, PTA has stopped following the decline. As can be seen from Figure 2, it is now showing a trend of strong shock, and the price of polyester yarn will also be supported by the cost side again. And many manufacturers have also begun tentative corrections: the POY of a major mainstream manufacturer in Tongxiang rose by 50; the POY of another major mainstream manufacturer in Tongxiang rose by 50; the POY of polyester yarn of a major mainstream manufacturer in Xiaoshan increased by 50; the POY of a major polyester yarn manufacturer in Taicang increased by 50. 50.
Figure 2 PTA price chart
Polyester load Low
From the supply side, power restrictions in Shaoxing continue , the production capacity of polyester factories in Shaoxing will be affected to some extent, and with the sluggish production and sales in the past half month, polyester inventory has begun to rise again. As shown in Figure 3, polyester inventory has once again exceeded the 20-day mark, and the overall inventory is in the medium range. level.
Figure 3 Polyester stock inspection chart
From Figure 4 we It can be seen that although the current load of polyester factories has increased due to the gradual relaxation of production restrictions, its load is still at a not very high level. The reason is the flatness of the polyester market. New orders have not increased, and most of them have maintained For the production of early orders, the overall operating rate is currently around 76.8%.
Figure 4 Polyester factory load trend chart
Buy Promotions have failed
Polyester factories have experienced a difficult period in October After a month of rising prices, they started promotions at the end of the month in the face of sluggish production and sales, but the results were not satisfactory. On the day of the first promotion, downstream companies were stimulated by low prices to buy polyester filaments. The overall polyester production and sales reached 165.8%, but thereafter Downstream companies did not buy into the second promotion, and polyester production and sales were only 88%.
Figure 5 Polyester production and sales trend chart
From the demand side, the downstream demand for The methods used by factories to increase prices and promotions have long been numb. Even if polyester factories adjust their strategies and let out rumors of price increases, production and sales are still deserted. According to market research, there is still a lot of social inventory in the market, and the price of polyester filaments does not change all of a sudden. It cannot attract the attention of downstream enterprises. There are not many new orders for overlay weaving factories. The comprehensive operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is around 75%, which is low compared with previous years. Therefore, for downstream users, on-demand procurement is still the main focus.
Figure 6 Trend chart of loom operation rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang
Current polyester yarn The market is ups and downs, and polyester factories are trying hard to find ways to restore production and sales. However, the current downstream industry will not accept soft or hard, will not buy up when prices rise, and will not be stimulated by promotions, which are out of the control of polyester factories. The main reason for this is Affected by the sluggish market, when terminal supply and demand cannot improve, polyester yarn�You can’t escape this environment and you can’t live alone.
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