Foreword
Today the polyester factory has its second weekly sale , the promotion intensity is 500-600 yuan/ton, and the production and sales of polyester have not achieved the desired results! Polyester production and sales are only 88%, and the results of the first promotion last week cannot be said to be very satisfactory. After production and sales surged one day, production and sales are still sluggish, continuing to be around 20%.
Figure 1 Polyester production and sales map in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions
Polyester The high level of polyester yarn has not retreated
The rise of polyester yarn in October can be said to be ” Crazy”, let’s take a look at a table, as shown in Table 1. As of October 29, 2021 (the first promotion time), according to the data monitored by Silkdu.com, we found that due to the previous price increase momentum, As a result, even if the prices are reduced due to promotions, the price increases of three conventional specifications of polyester yarns are still very high. 150D FDY has increased by 750 yuan/ton, or 9.3%, compared with the previous month’s low. 150D POY has increased by 795 yuan/ton compared with the previous month’s low. An increase of 10.2%, 150D DTY increased by 1,200 yuan/ton compared with the previous month’s low, an increase of 12.9%.
Figure 2 Price list of three conventional specifications of polyester yarn
After a month of climbing, the polyester yarn has reached an enviable high level, reaching the highest peak of the year. At such a high level, the promotional effect of polyester yarn is minimal, and the high price has discouraged downstream weaving companies, as shown in Figure 3 , although the current price has gone downhill, the overall price is still higher than the overall level this year.
Figure 3 Recent Polyester Trend Chart
Social Inventory Sufficient
Weaving companies can take action without hesitation when “buying up”, In case the price continues to increase in the future, but once there is a promotion, you have to weigh whether the polyester price will drop again and to what extent it will drop. The tangled mentality of weaving companies is also a reason for the sluggish production and sales of polyester. .
Previously, polyester factories seized on downstream weaving companies to “buy up but not down” At the same time as the crazy price increase, it also triggered a large amount of stockpiling in the downstream. The previously high-priced raw materials have not been fully digested. Weaving companies have sufficient raw materials and are not particularly interested in polyester factory promotions.
Reduced terminal demand
The current market conditions are not very prosperous. Since the relaxation of the power restriction policy, the market seems to have returned to its previous dullness. Although the start-up rate has increased, textile workers generally lack confidence in the direction of the market, their enthusiasm for production and purchasing has weakened, and they have become increasingly cautious in purchasing raw materials and fabrics. Even if the power restrictions have been relaxed, the operating rate of weaving enterprises has only returned to the level before the power restrictions, which is around 75%.
According to market research, some companies said that now that it is approaching the end of the year, the market has gradually become flat, and there is no demand for polyester yarn. So big, and there is also the disruption of the global supply and demand balance due to the epidemic, the skyrocketing sea freight, and the influx of foreign trade orders. Many companies also said that the illusion of peak season caused by power restrictions has been broken, and the market Restored its original appearance. Some business owners said bluntly: “The current market has never been encountered before, and the future market trends cannot be predicted. We can only take one step at a time.”
In short, under the premise that there is no huge change in the demand side of polyester yarn, the production and sales will not change too much. Promotion can allow downstream companies to maintain low prices. Stimulated by the price, an appropriate amount of replenishment is required to reduce the inventory that is slowly building up. Considering that the current situation of the downstream weaving market is not clear, unless there is a cold wave in the next two months, which will boost the demand for clothing, the overall market demand will Neither will be significantly improved, so when the end of the year comes, polyester factories may choose to overhaul the equipment in advance and reduce production to protect prices.
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