Recently, various hot events have emerged in the market. The global epidemic is intensifying due to the new delta virus. Ocean freight rates are rising every week. Container freight rates on China-US routes have skyrocketed. 5 times to 20,000 US dollars… In the traditional textile off-season in August, these news are “adding insult to injury” to textile workers. The peak season market in September and October should be one step closer with the arrival of August. The market in August should also be busy with preparatory work, but in fact the market is even more deserted on the eve of the peak season, which may postpone the peak season. Even canceling the peak season posture.
Orders decrease, weaving startup rate General decline
Normally speaking, July and August are the traditional textile off-season, and the textile market in these two months will not be too big. The change. However, since August is approaching the peak season, the weaving market has always been prepared to stock up in advance, so the weaving market in August will have a clear upward trend compared to July. In 2019 and 2020, the weaving start-up rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang began to rise sharply at the end of July and early August. However, this trend is not obvious this year, and even the start-up rates of major textile clusters have dropped to varying degrees since August.
“Factory orders are mainly in T800 peach skin Mainly cashmere and pongee, sales this year are not much better than last year during the epidemic. It is currently down 30% year-on-year, and the startup rate is down 30% compared to July.”
“We only make suede. , all foreign trade. But now due to the foreign epidemic, there is a container of finished products in the factory that has not been shipped. There are currently no orders on hand because the goods cannot be shipped out, so they have completely stopped. The factory’s current operating rate is about 70%, and July is about the same, let’s maintain this point first.”
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No orders, orders The decrease has led to the fact that the weaving operating rate has no meaning to increase. However, the characteristics of weaving stocking in advance determine that the current reduction in the operating rate is obviously not only a manifestation of the current poor market, but also a lack of confidence in the future textile market.
Delta virus is rampant, and many Asian countries have closed their cities
“Currently, the biggest impact on the textile market is the epidemic at home and abroad. If the epidemic eases, there will definitely be more orders. Now that the global epidemic is serious, there will definitely be fewer orders.” A textile foreign trader said. The epidemic is still the biggest uncertain factor in the current textile foreign trade market. Currently, textile foreign trade orders have been canceled and postponed in the domestic market due to the epidemic.
In 2020, the import of various types of textiles from my country exceeded Vietnam, a country worth 100 billion yuan, is suffering from the fourth wave of the new coronavirus mutant strain. It has currently led to the temporary closure of a number of industrial parks and factories. The production supply chain in various places has been interrupted due to the implementation of social isolation, and the growth rate of Vietnam’s industrial production has slowed down. As the world’s second largest textile and apparel exporter, about one-third of Vietnam’s textile and apparel factories have been closed due to the epidemic, and 30% to 35% of the country’s garment factories are currently closed.
Our other important textile exporting countries, India, Japan, Thailand, Malaysia, etc., are also in dire straits of the epidemic. Various countries have continued to implement city closures and curfews, and normal industrial production and shopping consumption have also been hit. This has also led to a lack of confidence among terminal textile and garment enterprises, and the frequency of new orders and inquiries has been slow. As for foreign trade shipping costs, it is easy to rise but not fall due to the epidemic, and export problems have worsened. Downstream gray fabric factories are really suffering, so it has become the norm to reduce operations and operate in a low-key manner.
The lack of orders has caused the inventory of gray fabrics to climb to a high level, and a large amount of funds of textile companies have been occupied. Therefore, most weaving companies have a cautious wait-and-see mentality. This is also true to a certain extent. Pour a touch of cold water on the soaring raw material prices.
Weaving mills continue to wait and see, raw material prices fall
Since July, the textile market The biggest change that has occurred is that the price increase of polyester yarn has ended. On August 5th and 6th, there were even notices from raw material manufacturers to lower prices for two consecutive days. It may seem surprising, but these are also very reasonable phenomena.
The reason for raw material manufacturers to increase prices is always the rise in upstream crude oil prices and rising costs, forcing them to raise raw material prices. It is true that the price of crude oil was close to US$80/barrel a while ago, but now the international oil price has fallen below US$70/barrel. The cost of raw materials has not only not increased, but has also dropped significantly. However, the drop in raw materials is obviously incomparable with the price of oil. . In fact, the real reason for the price increase of raw materials has always been that the demand is tight, the supply exceeds the demand, and the raw material factories have the right to say the price. The recent raw material prices are not a benefit of crude oil price cuts, but a compromise that downstream companies no longer buy into.
“For the time being, I will still buy on demand. There are no decent orders now, and it is useless to buy them. They are all in stock. Moreover, the cost of speculation about rising raw material prices is too high.” One person The person in charge of the weaving factory said. Another person in charge of the company said: “According to the current situation, the price of raw materials may further increase, especially spandex, but the market situation may not necessarily get better. We still maintain a wait-and-see attitude and will not consider stocking up on raw materials for the time being. ”
The unanimous attitude of weaving companies has caused the soaring raw material prices to begin to cool down. However, the spandex category is still making rapid progress. However, there is still much room for the price increase of spandex. It’s unknown.
In June and July, the market A common argument is that this year’s textile market is “not strong in the peak season and not weak in the off-season.” The performance of the textile market in the past few months makes people mistakenly think that this year’s off-season will have its own height. However, in fact, this wave of off-season orders is likely to overdraw the future textile market. How much can we expect from the traditional peak season in September and October? Woolen cloth?
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