The textile market, which has been in the off-season recently, is not calm, especially news of price increases from the raw material side. The increase in fees and prices is considered to be a sign of improvement in the textile market. The textile industry, which is indeed experiencing overcapacity, has the confidence to raise prices only when supply exceeds demand. However, the recent sharp increase in raw materials seems to have little to do with the downstream textile market. After all, no matter how good the orders in the off-season are, they cannot be compared with those in the peak season. This price increase comes more from the cost side.
The entire industry chain hopes for a “top-down” price increase, and then through the market’s “buy up, not buy down” mentality, the products will continue to rise. shift downstream. But the market cannot ignore one point. Many of the rules we are used to are changing under the epidemic, especially recently as many overseas countries are still under epidemic lockdown.
Malaysia was originally scheduled to expire on June 28 The national lockdown will be extended until the number of daily confirmed cases drops to 4,000.
Bangladesh is scheduled to implement “city closure” measures nationwide for at least a week starting from July 1.
Four states in Australia, Sydney, Darwin, Perth and Brisbane, announced emergency lockdowns.
The South African government announced at the end of June that it would raise the level of “city lockdown” to the fourth highest level in response to the epidemic.
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While the overseas epidemic situation has not improved yet, we are highly dependent on the textile market for foreign trade exports. It is impossible to ignore the epidemic and blindly be affected by it. Lead the way upstream!
The epidemic has actually promoted textile foreign trade exports
We have always naturally felt that last year’s epidemic Our textile market is definitely not good. This year, the domestic and overseas epidemics will be gradually controlled with the use of vaccines, and our textile market will definitely be good. But the actual situation is a bit different from how we feel.
With our important textile importing areas the EU and The United States is an example. From 2017 to 2019, the total number of various textiles imported by these two regions from my country was relatively stable. In Europe and the United States, it is 310-320 billion yuan, and in the United States, it is 280-300 billion yuan. However, due to the epidemic last year, imports rose sharply. The EU increased to 360 billion yuan, and the United States increased to 350 billion yuan, with an increase of 500. About 100 million yuan.
Such a large increase must be unrelated to the epidemic. Regardless, various masks, protective clothing and other anti-epidemic supplies have pushed up export data. However, as the epidemic improves, these data will inevitably return to normal. Therefore, many companies feel that textile orders this year are not as good as last year.
The epidemic situation has improved, but orders are not as good as last year
A finishing and processing company in the market has recently They said that their products were thought to be related to the epidemic, and orders were extremely popular last year. However, this year’s trade volume has declined sharply. Not only is it very different from last year, it is even worse than the year before. In addition to the obvious feelings of epidemic prevention textile companies, some conventional textile fabric companies also feel that their orders have not improved substantially compared to last year, or are even worse.
“This year’s orders are actually similar to last year. Only some products sell better, and most of the others are for inventory. But our life is more difficult, mainly It’s because the price of raw materials was very low last year, so we are not worried about the inventory produced by weaving, but this year the inventory is made of high-priced raw materials. If the price of raw materials drops in the future, our inventory will depreciate significantly,” said a person in charge of a weaving factory. .
After the epidemic, textile orders were not as good as last year. Countries such as India, Thailand, Malaysia, and the United Kingdom, which have poorly controlled the epidemic this year, have experienced various blockades from time to time. The import volume of goods increased significantly compared with last year. Among them, India’s total imports of various types of textiles increased by 78% year-on-year from January to May last year, with relatively large increases mainly in ready-made garments and chemical fiber raw materials.
The European Union and the United States have gradually brought the epidemic under control In other places, textile import data has not increased. The United States has basically maintained the same year-on-year data, while the European Union has experienced a decrease of more than 25%, and Japan has also experienced a decrease of nearly 20%.
The epidemic has brought obvious imperfections to the textile market It is a negative impact, which can be seen from the increase in textile products imported from my country by various countries last year. At the same time, the demand for textile products has decreased due to the improvement of the epidemic situation in various places this year, so we must also graduallyWe realize that the textile market outside the epidemic is gradually weakening, and reduced orders have become the norm. To some extent, the epidemic is not accelerating this process, but delaying it. With the use of vaccines, the possibility of another full-scale outbreak of the epidemic is no longer high, and textile orders will return to normal market trends.
In other words, what we often say in the first half of the year “The peak season is not prosperous” may be the normal state of the textile market. It is still unknown whether the market can get rid of this pattern in the second half of the year when high hopes are placed. Blindly optimistic about the market outlook and constantly raising prices, stocking up, and hoarding goods may make the market competition in the second half of the year even more stressful.
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