The price of polyester yarn from a large factory in Tongxiang increased by 50-100 yuan today;
The price of polyester yarn from a large factory in Wujiang Increase by 100-200 yuan;
The price of polyester yarn from another large factory in Tongxiang will increase by 50-150 yuan;
The price of polyester yarn from a large factory in Xiaoshan will increase 50 yuan;
…
Finally, polyester filament has also experienced a surge!
Since April, polyester filament has been on sale every Monday. mode, until last Tuesday, there had been a total of 10 promotions in just three months. After each promotion, the price will increase slightly on the second day, but overall it has remained stable. Now, it seems that this “curse” will be broken and the upward channel will be opened.
Polyester filament prices have risen this round, and cost pressure is definitely a very important driving factor. Currently, crude oil has continued to rise sharply since June, with WTI crude oil and London Brent crude oil prices hitting their highest prices since October 2018. According to the analysis of professional institutions, there will be room for rising oil prices in the future. With the sharp rise in oil prices, PTA is not to be outdone. It also has a strong increase and has exceeded 5,000 yuan. Polyester filament yarns are rising due to strong support from the cost side.
Can this rising trend continue?
Polyester filament cost pressure increases, strong support
In terms of crude oil, professionals believe that crude oil will continue to rise. Goldman Sachs predicts that Brent prices will reach US$80/barrel and WTI prices will reach US$77/barrel in the third quarter. Some institutions even predict that crude oil prices may reach or even exceed US$100 per barrel in the second half of the year. In terms of PX, there have been many equipment accidents recently. It is said that the load of PX equipment of a major manufacturer has been reduced to 50% for some reason. At the same time, the discharge time of new equipment may be postponed to the end of July. PX supply is weak and production capacity is limited. In July, maintenance plans for multiple PTA units were kept, and the estimated loss of the units was about 1.22 million tons. Coupled with the boost from crude oil and PX, it has undoubtedly formed a strong support for PTA. Polyester filament has also received strong support from the cost side, and the “weekly promotion” may gradually disappear with the rise of oil prices and PTA.
Polyester yarn profits are at a loss, and manufacturers are more willing to raise prices
From the analysis of polyester filament itself, the output of the polyester industry It will be around 1.13-1.14 million tons, and the load will be above 90%. The current overall polyester market inventory is concentrated at 11-24 days; in terms of specific products, POY inventory is around 8-19 days, FDY inventory is around 11-14 days, and DTY inventory is around 14-25 days. Polyester inventories are neutral, and polyester operating rates are also stable.
But in terms of polyester filament profits, its current profits are not ideal and are on the verge of loss, especially since DTY has When losses occur, manufacturers’ willingness to raise prices also increases. Many times, polyester filament adopts the attitude of “when raw materials go up, so do I”. However, since raw materials have been rising for a long time, polyester filament may have been unable to bear the rising mood for a long time, and has no choice but to buy downstream. Good, it grows slowly and slowly.
Downstream demand rises, polyester filament production and sales improve
On the downstream side, since the end of the peak season in April, the weaving market has begun to decline in May. Gray fabrics are unsaleable, there is accumulated inventory, and the overall operating rate of looms has also begun to decline. Since the end of April, raw materials for polyester filament have also started to be “increased every week”, and the mentality of cloth bosses in purchasing raw materials has changed from “buying up and not buying down” to “don’t buy filament without promotion”. Only on weekly promotion days can production and sales exceed 100, and most of the time they are concentrated at 50%-70%.
Bubo’s mentality of buying polyester filament has also undergone subtle changes. “Buy up and not buy down” seems to be back. On June 28, the price of polyester filament was stable, but the overall trading atmosphere in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was acceptable. The production and sales of good factories could reach more than 150%-300%, and the production and sales of some poor factories were around 60%-90%. There is no promotion or price increase, but the production and sales of polyester filament can still exceed 100. This is a rare thing. The production and sales of polyester filament have improved, which has provided impetus for price increases.
The weaving market in June improved slightly compared with May, especially at the end of June, there was a reversal. The volume of foreign trade orders increased, and the shipment of gray fabrics increased significantly. According to data monitoring from China Silk City Network, the current average operating rate of water-jet looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is around 63.5%. Although some areas are still restricting production, the operating rate has basically reached the same level as last year and shows an upward trend. The operating rate of printing and dyeing factories has rebounded, the number of gray fabrics entering warehouses has increased, and they have begun to get busy. The “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” are also coming soon, and downstream demand will gradually increase. Under the dual influence of the surge in upstream raw materials and the improvement of downstream orders, polyester filament may be easy to rise but difficult to fall.
Editor’s note
For now, although downstream orders have improved, July is the best month in the traditional sense.In the weak stage, there may be a trend of weakening. In addition, due to factors such as raw materials, shipping costs, and exchange rates, the actual profit margins of manufacturers are limited. It is difficult for cloth bosses to be cautious and may continue to wait and see.
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