Since entering the second quarter, many chemical companies have arranged shutdowns for maintenance, involving more than a dozen chemical raw materials such as ethylene glycol, phenols and ketones, methanol, butadiene, and styrene.
Among them, in terms of ethylene glycol, the raw material for polyester filament:
Lihua Yilijin Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. 200,000 tons/year ethylene glycol The device is scheduled to be shut down for maintenance on May 1, which will last for one month;
Taiwan Nanya’s 1#360,000 ton/year MEG device will be shut down for maintenance for about 15 days at the end of May as planned;
Taiwan’s 2#360,000 tons/year MEG device will be shut down for maintenance for about 30 days at the end of May as planned;
……
In addition to PTA, PTA, another important raw material for polyester filament, is also in low operating conditions at this stage. In early April, a total of 6.2 million tons of PTA equipment is planned for maintenance. It is estimated that the theoretical destocking volume of PTA in April Possibly a record high. According to data monitoring from China Silk City Network, as of April 16, the real-time operating rate of domestic PTA devices has dropped to 64.4%.
In terms of polyester inventory, after the polyester factory’s big sale last Monday (April 12), The inventory of polyester factories has generally returned to a relatively “safe” situation. According to statistics from China Silk City Network, the overall inventory of the polyester market is now concentrated at 15-26 days; in terms of specific products, POY inventory has reached 8-8 days. On 14 days, FDY inventory is around 14-21 days, while DTY inventory is around 13-26 days.
It can be said that whether it is the future trend of upstream PTA, ethylene glycol, or the inventory of polyester factories Judging from the situation, it can provide certain support for the future price increase of polyester yarn. At this time, whether the price of polyester yarn can rise, and how much it can rise, depends on whether downstream weaving companies will foot the bill.
Promotion cannot solve the fundamental problem
In the wave of promotions last Monday (April 12), some The polyester factory has soared to 1000%. The editor thought that most weaving companies chose to stock up. However, after visiting the market, we found that this is not the case. Only a small number of cloth bosses choose to stock up in large quantities, while most cloth bosses are unmoved by promotions and continue to choose the buy-and-use model. The reasons are nothing more than two: First, the order quantity is not large, resulting in Inventory is overstocked and capital chains are tight; secondly, there has always been a mentality of “buying up, not buying down”.
To change this situation, it is not enough to rely solely on discounts and promotions from polyester factories. The most important thing is Let textile people have confidence in the future.
On the one hand, the time is getting closer to the end of the month, and next month is the May Day holiday. This May Day statutory holiday lasts for five days. In previous years, before long holidays, there would usually be a wave of concentrated orders. In addition, as the end of the month approaches, weaving companies often routinely replenish raw materials. When upstream raw material prices show strong cost support, such a market is likely to Bringing about an increase in the price of polyester filament.
On the other hand, from the perspective of the macro environment, foreign trade export data in the first quarter were good, with national textile and apparel exports reaching US$65.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 44% (a year-on-year increase of 34% in RMB) ), exports increased by 15.6% compared with the first quarter of 2019 (the same period before the epidemic). While the foreign trade market is recovering rapidly, the domestic trade market has also been performing stably. Under such circumstances, the inventory accumulated in the market can be quickly consumed.
Therefore, the editor judges that before the May Day holiday arrives, there will be a certain probability of a wave of market conditions in the market. This led to a slight increase in raw material prices. In fact, for textile companies, a slight increase in the price of raw materials will not have much impact. The most important thing is to receive enough orders. With orders, the price of cloth can keep up with the increase in raw materials, and the market can really become hot. </p
