On Tuesday, March 23, the price of WTI crude oil fell as much as $4.22, or 6.9%, to a daily low of $57.34, the lowest in one and a half months since February 12, and fell below 61, 61, and 61 in a row during the day. The four levels are 60, 59 and 58 US dollars.
Brent oil prices fell as much as 4.11 US dollars, or 6.4%, to a daily low of 60.51 US dollars, pushing down to the round figure of 60 US dollars. It also hit the lowest level since February 12, and fell below continuously during the day. The four levels are 64, 63, 62 and 61 US dollars.
As of the close, WTI May crude oil futures fell $3.80, or 6.17%, to $57.76 per barrel. Brent May crude oil futures closed down $3.83, or 5.92%, to $60.79 per barrel.
Affected by this, PTA futures fell slightly, with the final closing quotation being 4330 points.
However, ethylene glycol futures did not fall but rose. They behaved unusually “strong” and did not fall but rose. , closing at 5116 points.
The price of polyester filament has fallen to a small extent:
The price of polyester yarn from a major mainstream factory in Shengze has been reduced;
The price of polyester yarn from a POY factory in Xiaoshan has been reduced by 100 yuan;
The price of polyester yarn from a factory in Hangzhou has been reduced by 100 yuan
…
It can be said that with the continuous decline of international oil prices, upstream crude oil has gradually transformed from the original support of polyester filament prices to the driving force of the decline in polyester prices. .
It was at this time that a series of chemical companies, including polyester factories, chose to “find another way” and started to reduce production.
Take PTA as an example. With the fluctuation of international oil prices in the early stage, the processing fee level of PTA was compressed to a historically low level. Therefore, major PTA factories have increased their own maintenance efforts.
Among them, the 1.4 million tons/year PTA unit of Reignwood Petrochemical will enter maintenance on March 6 as planned, and the maintenance is expected to take one month; the 2.5 million tons/year PTA unit of Hengli Petrochemical will enter maintenance as planned. It will be stopped for maintenance on March 6, and the maintenance is expected to take about two weeks.
According to data monitoring from China Silk City Network, in the third week of March (3.13-3.19), the average weekly operating rate of PTA was concentrated at 73.7%, a decrease of 3.2% from last week; The real-time operating rate is 72.1%, and the real-time effective operating rate is 79.4%. This data is also at a low level historically.
After the sharp rise in raw material prices at the beginning of the year caused the market to be partially overdrawn, it is indeed a stabilizing step for chemical companies to start production reduction measures The market’s good approach can enable raw material prices to achieve a “soft landing” when international oil prices fall, but it also brings a side effect, that is, a sharp increase in dye costs, leading to an increase in dyeing costs.
Therefore, for the terminal As far as textile companies are concerned, they are faced with two situations. One is that the price of raw materials has fallen back to a certain extent when the international oil price “falls”. The other is that the price of dyes has been “accidentally included”, resulting in an increase in dyeing costs. Of course, cloth bosses are more concerned about what will be the next trend of raw materials?
In terms of the epidemic
As many European countries extend their lockdown strategies, it is obvious that European and American countries want to It is difficult to completely control the epidemic. We can only wait for the vaccine to be fully popularized. However, judging from recent news, the progress is not ideal. As an aside, the editor recently received a notification to voluntarily sign up for the COVID-19 vaccine and has already received the first dose. I can only say that China has a very obvious advantage in “concentrating its efforts on big things”.
Crude oil
Previously, crude oil rose due to expectations of epidemic control. Now when there is no hope that the epidemic will be completely controlled in a short time, the future There is a high probability that international oil prices will continue to fall.
In terms of maintenance
With the decline in oil prices, chemical companies are likely to continue the “low operating rate” in order to maintain profits and prevent raw materials from collapsing. The strategy will even further reduce the opening rate when profits shrink.
On the demand side
The epidemic has not been controlled, terminal demand has not been boosted enough, and the rise in raw materials at the beginning of the year has overdrafted part of the market. The order situation this year may be It will not perform as expected, but it will be better than 2020 anyway.
In summary…It is stated that when the global epidemic is difficult to be controlled in a short period of time and crude oil is expected to decline, polyester factories will stabilize raw material prices through production cuts and other measures. The price of polyester products may still decline to a certain extent in the future, but It is difficult to have a “collapse” situation. </p
