In recent times, the price of polyester filament has started a new round of decline. In one month, it fell by nearly 800 yuan/ Ton. But the editor found that this year is very different from last year during the same period.
At this time in 2019, the entire industrial chain is booming, and the prices of various products have increased to varying degrees compared with June, especially in PTA and polyester. obvious.
And this year, the price of polyester filament has been It is in a downward trend, with occasional rises and then falling quickly. At the same time, the prices of various products in the industry chain have also fallen.
Last year, strongly supported by the rise in PTA prices, polyester filament prices continued to rise. After July 20, they began to fall back. But this year, the cost side of PTA has collapsed, and the price of polyester yarn has been falling. As can be seen from the table below, the decline in polyester yarn this year is even more obvious. This current situation is related to the superposition of multiple negative factors.
The macro factors are different: this year Impacted by the epidemic; suppressed by Sino-US trade last year
Last year, the biggest factor that caused the market to go downhill, besides overcapacity, was Sino-US trade , and this year, it is the impact of the super black swan of the epidemic. Compared with previous years, the Sino-US trade last year indeed caused many companies to significantly shrink or even delay their orders to the United States.
However, compared with this year, the epidemic has severely reduced foreign orders. Not only the United States, but also my country’s important textile exporting countries such as Italy, Spain, and India have been affected. Judging from the companies visited, up to now, the order situation of most foreign trade companies is still poor. Coupled with the deepening of the traditional off-season atmosphere and the suspension of economic restart in many countries, it is even more difficult for foreign trade orders to improve.
The equipment maintenance and commissioning are different: the overall production output this year is higher than last year; there were more equipment maintenance last year than this year
Summer is the most frequent time for equipment maintenance. Between June and July last year, the maintenance of polyester filament equipment involved a production capacity of about 2.02 million tons, and the equipment load was about 89%. In the same period this year, the maintenance of polyester filament equipment was delayed, and the production capacity was only about 1.48 million tons, and the equipment The load is still at a high level of around 90.2%.
The most important reason is that the speed of polyester production capacity was accelerated in the first half of this year. In the first half of the year, 5 new direct-spinning polyester filament devices were put into production in China, with a total production capacity of 1.15 million tons/year, compared with 550,000 tons/year in the same period last year, the production progress has been significantly accelerated. Most leading polyester companies such as Hengli, Shenghong, Hengyi and Xinfengming have been put into production this year, while last year they were mainly second- and third-tier polyester factories. Leading companies have accelerated industrial expansion and have more concentrated say in polyester prices. The impact is even greater.
Their own inventory is different: this year’s Polyester inventory is more than double that of last year
In the recent stage, as the weaving market gradually enters the off-season and high inventory becomes a common problem, looms are turned on The rate is only falling but not rising. The demand for raw polyester filament is gradually weakening. Polyester production and sales continue to be sluggish. Manufacturers offer frequent discounts and promotions, but weaving companies no longer foot the bill. As a result, polyester stocks continue to accumulate. As of now, the average polyester manufacturer Inventory rose to around 38-39 days.
At the same time last year, although polyester manufacturers were also in the inventory accumulation stage, the inventory was only around 17-18 days. This year’s inventory has more than doubled. . The sharp increase in inventory has put the price of polyester yarn at a disadvantage at this stage.
Weaving stocks are different: low this year Load, high inventory; last year’s high load, low inventory
The situation of weaving companies can naturally determine their demand for raw materials. Even though the domestic epidemic has been brought under control and all walks of life have resumed production, for textile and clothing products, domestic sales account for a small proportion, while export sales still face resistance. The production and sales of weaving enterprises are seriously imbalanced. Currently, the inventory of gray fabrics in Shengze area It has reached around 45 days.
In the same period last year, weaving companies also faced the problem of supply and demand imbalance, but the operating rate during the same period was about 20% higher than this year, and the inventory was 42 days old. Nearby, it can be seen that the market situation this year is indeed much worse than last year. Woven cloth cannot be sold, so the demand for raw materials is naturally much lower.
Different periods are affected by different factors , the price of polyester yarn is also different. But judging from the current actual situation, whether it is the upstream cost side, its own fundamentals, or the downstream demand side, the trend of polyester yarn in the later period is bearish, and it will still be put into production in the later period. –Slow sales–Accumulated inventory–In the vicious circle of production.
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